Heads up
The Mirror is being actively tuned right now. Some live figures may lag or look off while we work through a few issues, so treat numbers here as provisional. Full accuracy back shortly.
The Mirror / 2026-09-26 beta
NYM 7, WSH 1. Final.
The Mirror’s record: every call graded →
Batter-by-batter Monte Carlo: each plate appearance is a real matchup probability, played through a full base-out state machine with starter fatigue and bullpen chains. Validated against 358 completed games before launch.
Final
NYM 7, WSH 1
The final result has replaced the last live pitch state. Published 04:34:54Z UTC · back to slate
7 – 1final score
8total runs
Pregame baseline
New York Mets @ Washington Nationals
Tong, Jonah vs Early, Connelly · engine 0.1.13 · back to slate
NYM 49.3%WSH 50.7%
4.05 – 3.89mean score
7.93mean total
58%NRFI
11.4%extra innings
5.99 / 6.37starter K means
Run distributions
Total runs across 8,000 sims
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Hover a bar for the probability of that exact total.
Team run distributions
NYM (gold) vs WSH (cyan)
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Paired bars per run count.
Projected batting lines
NYM per-game means
| Batter | PA | H | HR | TB | BB | K | RBI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lindor, Francisco | 4.763 | 0.999 | 0.184 | 1.779 | 0.406 | 1.208 | 0.471 |
| Soto, Juan | 4.644 | 1.073 | 0.228 | 2.027 | 0.633 | 0.912 | 0.568 |
| Bichette, Bo | 4.539 | 1.092 | 0.119 | 1.666 | 0.327 | 1.055 | 0.454 |
| Benge, Carson | 4.431 | 1.105 | 0.129 | 1.749 | 0.342 | 1.21 | 0.512 |
| Vientos, Mark | 4.327 | 0.879 | 0.168 | 1.568 | 0.26 | 1.23 | 0.526 |
| Baty, Brett | 4.216 | 0.912 | 0.099 | 1.386 | 0.381 | 1.296 | 0.38 |
| Alvarez, Francisco | 4.112 | 0.878 | 0.139 | 1.48 | 0.353 | 1.409 | 0.424 |
| Ewing, A.J. | 3.998 | 0.895 | 0.079 | 1.308 | 0.333 | 1.22 | 0.337 |
| Mauricio, Ronny | 3.878 | 0.812 | 0.093 | 1.241 | 0.25 | 1.23 | 0.374 |
Projected batting lines
WSH per-game means
| Batter | PA | H | HR | TB | BB | K | RBI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wood, James | 4.549 | 0.99 | 0.165 | 1.768 | 0.631 | 1.505 | 0.477 |
| Ortiz, Abimelec | 4.436 | 0.927 | 0.118 | 1.469 | 0.325 | 1.276 | 0.431 |
| Crews, Dylan | 4.322 | 0.917 | 0.093 | 1.408 | 0.328 | 1.238 | 0.388 |
| Abrams, CJ | 4.22 | 1.051 | 0.152 | 1.809 | 0.391 | 1.176 | 0.539 |
| House, Brady | 4.127 | 0.93 | 0.091 | 1.414 | 0.333 | 1.226 | 0.437 |
| Lile, Daylen | 4.025 | 0.926 | 0.11 | 1.496 | 0.268 | 0.956 | 0.453 |
| Morales, Yohandy | 3.916 | 0.923 | 0.162 | 1.678 | 0.266 | 1.263 | 0.525 |
| Ruiz, Keibert | 3.795 | 0.986 | 0.084 | 1.448 | 0.225 | 0.594 | 0.413 |
| Nuñez, Nasim | 3.669 | 0.728 | 0.021 | 0.89 | 0.371 | 0.914 | 0.222 |
One representative simulation
A median-outcome game, batter by batter
This is the play-by-play of one sim whose final total matched the median across all runs — a preview of the most typical version of tonight.
— Top 1 —
Lindor, Francisco vs Early, Connelly: K
Soto, Juan vs Early, Connelly: HR +1 run (1-0)
Bichette, Bo vs Early, Connelly: K
Benge, Carson vs Early, Connelly: 1B
Vientos, Mark vs Early, Connelly: OUT GB
— Bottom 1 —
Wood, James vs Tong, Jonah: BB
Ortiz, Abimelec vs Tong, Jonah: OUT AIR
Crews, Dylan vs Tong, Jonah: K
Abrams, CJ vs Tong, Jonah: BB
House, Brady vs Tong, Jonah: K
— Top 2 —
Baty, Brett vs Early, Connelly: OUT AIR
Alvarez, Francisco vs Early, Connelly: OUT GB
Ewing, A.J. vs Early, Connelly: K
— Bottom 2 —
Lile, Daylen vs Tong, Jonah: OUT AIR
Morales, Yohandy vs Tong, Jonah: BB
Ruiz, Keibert vs Tong, Jonah: OUT GB
Nuñez, Nasim vs Tong, Jonah: BB
Wood, James vs Tong, Jonah: OUT AIR
— Top 3 —
Mauricio, Ronny vs Early, Connelly: OUT GB
Lindor, Francisco vs Early, Connelly: BB
Soto, Juan vs Early, Connelly: BB
Bichette, Bo vs Early, Connelly: HR +3 runs (4-0)
Benge, Carson vs Early, Connelly: 3B
Vientos, Mark vs Early, Connelly: BB
Baty, Brett vs Early, Connelly: K
Alvarez, Francisco vs Early, Connelly: OUT GB
— Bottom 3 —
Ortiz, Abimelec vs Tong, Jonah: 1B
Crews, Dylan vs Tong, Jonah: 2B
Abrams, CJ vs Tong, Jonah: OUT AIR
House, Brady vs Tong, Jonah: OUT AIR
Lile, Daylen vs Tong, Jonah: OUT GB
— Top 4 —
Ewing, A.J. vs Early, Connelly: 1B
Mauricio, Ronny vs Early, Connelly: OUT AIR
Lindor, Francisco vs Early, Connelly: K
Soto, Juan vs Early, Connelly: OUT GB
— Bottom 4 —
Morales, Yohandy vs Tong, Jonah: 2B
Ruiz, Keibert vs Tong, Jonah: K
Nuñez, Nasim vs Tong, Jonah: OUT AIR
Wood, James vs Tong, Jonah: K
— Top 5 —
Bichette, Bo vs Early, Connelly: OUT GB
Benge, Carson vs Early, Connelly: 1B
Vientos, Mark vs Early, Connelly: OUT GB
— Bottom 5 —
Ortiz, Abimelec vs Tong, Jonah: OUT AIR
Crews, Dylan vs Tong, Jonah: K
Abrams, CJ vs Lavender, Nate: BB
House, Brady vs Lavender, Nate: 1B
Lile, Daylen vs Lavender, Nate: 1B +1 run (4-1)
Morales, Yohandy vs Lavender, Nate: 2B +1 run (4-2)
Ruiz, Keibert vs Minter, A.J.: OUT AIR
— Top 6 —
Baty, Brett vs Early, Connelly: BB
Alvarez, Francisco vs Early, Connelly: OUT GB
Ewing, A.J. vs Early, Connelly: OUT GB
Mauricio, Ronny vs Early, Connelly: BB
Lindor, Francisco vs Dion, Will: OUT GB
— Bottom 6 —
Nuñez, Nasim vs Minter, A.J.: K
Wood, James vs Minter, A.J.: K
Ortiz, Abimelec vs Minter, A.J.: OUT AIR
— Top 7 —
Soto, Juan vs Dion, Will: BB
Bichette, Bo vs Dion, Will: OUT AIR
Benge, Carson vs Dion, Will: K
Vientos, Mark vs Ribalta, Orlando: OUT AIR
— Bottom 7 —
Crews, Dylan vs Minter, A.J.: 1B
Abrams, CJ vs Núñez, Dedniel: K
House, Brady vs Núñez, Dedniel: BB
Lile, Daylen vs Núñez, Dedniel: OUT AIR
— Top 8 —
Baty, Brett vs Ribalta, Orlando: 1B
Alvarez, Francisco vs Ribalta, Orlando: BB
Ewing, A.J. vs Ribalta, Orlando: OUT GB
Mauricio, Ronny vs Parker, Mitchell: OUT GB
Lindor, Francisco vs Parker, Mitchell: OUT AIR
— Bottom 8 —
Morales, Yohandy vs Núñez, Dedniel: OUT GB
Ruiz, Keibert vs Núñez, Dedniel: 2B
Nuñez, Nasim vs Duarte, Daniel: 1B +1 run (4-3)
Wood, James vs Duarte, Daniel: OUT AIR
Ortiz, Abimelec vs Duarte, Daniel: K
— Top 9 —
Soto, Juan vs Parker, Mitchell: K
Bichette, Bo vs Parker, Mitchell: OUT GB
Benge, Carson vs Tolman, Erik: 1B
Vientos, Mark vs Tolman, Erik: OUT AIR
— Bottom 9 —
Crews, Dylan vs Duarte, Daniel: K
Abrams, CJ vs Edwards Jr., Carl: OUT AIR
House, Brady vs Edwards Jr., Carl: OUT AIR