{ "date": "2026-06-11", "generated_at": "2026-06-11T08:04:08.601738", "projection_type": "strikeout_props", "model_version": "strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "assumptions": { "baseline_projection_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_projection_type": "matchups", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "methodology": "Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "variance_formula": "variance = mean + alpha * mean^2", "thresholds": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 ] }, "adjustment_bounds": { "matchup_ratio_blend": 0.35, "score_multiplier_range": [ 0.94, 1.06 ], "final_multiplier_range": [ 0.85, 1.15 ] } }, "projected_start_count": 12, "skipped_start_count": 3, "predictions": [ { "date": "2026-06-11", "game_pk": 824827, "pitcher_id": 680694, "pitcher_name": "Kyle Bradish", "team_id": 110, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_team_id": 136, "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 81.9, "wind_speed_mph": 14.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.08, "skill_score": 19.1, "opportunity_score": 58.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.3, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 38.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.86, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.08, "adjustment_delta": 0.22, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.037, "prob_4_plus": 0.8111, "prob_5_plus": 0.6823, "prob_6_plus": 0.5402, "prob_7_plus": 0.4033, "prob_8_plus": 0.2848, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 65.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.26, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 13080.0, "temperature_f": 81.9, "wind_speed_mph": 14.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.024, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Rob Refsnyder", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Cal Raleigh", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Josh Naylor", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Randy Arozarena", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Victor Robles", "matchup_score": 73.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 121.8, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Randy Arozarena", "matchup_score": 73.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 150.1, "expected_contact_quality": 112.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez", "matchup_score": 70.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 138.3, "expected_contact_quality": 103.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.251 } }, { "date": "2026-06-11", "game_pk": 824827, "pitcher_id": 693433, "pitcher_name": "Bryan Woo", "team_id": 136, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_team_id": 110, "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 81.9, "wind_speed_mph": 14.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.24, "skill_score": 30.6, "opportunity_score": 58.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 49.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 39.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.71, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.24, "adjustment_delta": 0.53, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.113, "prob_4_plus": 0.7265, "prob_5_plus": 0.572, "prob_6_plus": 0.4195, "prob_7_plus": 0.2878, "prob_8_plus": 0.1857, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 65.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.05, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24778.0, "temperature_f": 81.9, "wind_speed_mph": 14.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.024, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Gunnar Henderson", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Pete Alonso", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Tyler O'Neill", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Taylor Ward", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Adley Rutschman", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Ryan Mountcastle", "matchup_score": 80.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 131.6, "expected_contact_quality": 69.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Colton Cowser", "matchup_score": 75.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 137.2, "expected_contact_quality": 95.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Tyler O'Neill", "matchup_score": 71.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 147.6, "expected_contact_quality": 113.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.23 } }, { "date": "2026-06-11", "game_pk": 824346, "pitcher_id": 665795, "pitcher_name": "Edward Cabrera", "team_id": 112, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_team_id": 115, "opponent_abbr": "COL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 76.3, "wind_speed_mph": 9.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.01, "skill_score": 34.2, "opportunity_score": 51.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 48.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 48.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.42, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.01, "adjustment_delta": 0.59, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.133, "prob_4_plus": 0.6982, "prob_5_plus": 0.5377, "prob_6_plus": 0.3845, "prob_7_plus": 0.2567, "prob_8_plus": 0.1609, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 64.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.99, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23128.0, "temperature_f": 76.3, "wind_speed_mph": 9.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.13, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Willi Castro", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Hunter Goodman", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Mickey Moniak", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Brenton Doyle", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jordan Beck", "matchup_score": 79.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 144.6, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "matchup_score": 76.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 139.5, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Brenton Doyle", "matchup_score": 75.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 137.0, "expected_contact_quality": 67.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2611 } }, { "date": "2026-06-11", "game_pk": 824101, "pitcher_id": 608379, "pitcher_name": "Michael Wacha", "team_id": 118, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_team_id": 140, "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 78.6, "wind_speed_mph": 15.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.88, "skill_score": 18.8, "opportunity_score": 78.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 11.5, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.98, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.88, "adjustment_delta": -0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.979, "prob_4_plus": 0.6811, "prob_5_plus": 0.5175, "prob_6_plus": 0.3646, "prob_7_plus": 0.2394, "prob_8_plus": 0.1475, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 38.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.81, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30396.0, "temperature_f": 78.6, "wind_speed_mph": 15.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.985, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Wyatt Langford", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Corey Seager", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Brandon Nimmo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jake Burger", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Joc Pederson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Josh Jung", "matchup_score": 51.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 108.0, "expected_contact_quality": 93.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Danny Jansen", "matchup_score": 49.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 95.8, "expected_contact_quality": 83.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Evan Carter", "matchup_score": 46.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 87.4, "expected_contact_quality": 70.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2184 } }, { "date": "2026-06-11", "game_pk": 824265, "pitcher_id": 805673, "pitcher_name": "Zebby Matthews", "team_id": 142, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_team_id": 116, "opponent_abbr": "DET", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 87.1, "wind_speed_mph": 10.3, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 4.83, "skill_score": 32.4, "opportunity_score": 59.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 39.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.68, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.83, "adjustment_delta": 0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.042, "prob_4_plus": 0.6744, "prob_5_plus": 0.5097, "prob_6_plus": 0.3569, "prob_7_plus": 0.2328, "prob_8_plus": 0.1425, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.25, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9633.0, "temperature_f": 87.1, "wind_speed_mph": 10.3, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.039, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Zach McKinstry", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jahmai Jones", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kerry Carpenter", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Riley Greene", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Spencer Torkelson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Dillon Dingler", "matchup_score": 60.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 121.0, "expected_contact_quality": 91.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Matt Vierling", "matchup_score": 58.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 106.9, "expected_contact_quality": 67.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Gleyber Torres", "matchup_score": 55.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 105.1, "expected_contact_quality": 83.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2409 } }, { "date": "2026-06-11", "game_pk": 823371, "pitcher_id": 656605, "pitcher_name": "Mitch Keller", "team_id": 134, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_team_id": 119, "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 76.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.54, "skill_score": 21.5, "opportunity_score": 62.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 32.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.54, "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.061, "prob_4_plus": 0.6329, "prob_5_plus": 0.4627, "prob_6_plus": 0.3122, "prob_7_plus": 0.1957, "prob_8_plus": 0.1149, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 37.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.15, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35103.0, "temperature_f": 76.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.975, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Shohei Ohtani", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Freddie Freeman", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Tucker", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Mookie Betts", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Andy Pages", "matchup_score": 59.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 105.1, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "matchup_score": 56.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 124.8, "expected_contact_quality": 107.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Alex Call", "matchup_score": 49.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 88.0, "expected_contact_quality": 74.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.216 } }, { "date": "2026-06-11", "game_pk": 823855, "pitcher_id": 518876, "pitcher_name": "Merrill Kelly", "team_id": 109, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_team_id": 146, "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 85.8, "wind_speed_mph": 10.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.47, "skill_score": 18.4, "opportunity_score": 69.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 22.0, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.98, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.47, "adjustment_delta": 0.49, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.124, "prob_4_plus": 0.6222, "prob_5_plus": 0.451, "prob_6_plus": 0.3014, "prob_7_plus": 0.1871, "prob_8_plus": 0.1087, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.45, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 27142.0, "temperature_f": 85.8, "wind_speed_mph": 10.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.969, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Xavier Edwards", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jakob Marsee", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Stowers", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Agust\u00edn Ram\u00edrez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Christopher Morel", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Heriberto Hern\u00e1ndez", "matchup_score": 74.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 134.4, "expected_contact_quality": 87.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Connor Norby", "matchup_score": 73.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.1, "expected_contact_quality": 73.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Christopher Morel", "matchup_score": 56.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 138.1, "expected_contact_quality": 122.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2155 } }, { "date": "2026-06-11", "game_pk": 824346, "pitcher_id": 663372, "pitcher_name": "Ryan Feltner", "team_id": 115, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_team_id": 112, "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 76.3, "wind_speed_mph": 9.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.99, "skill_score": 14.9, "opportunity_score": 15.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.9, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 97.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.8, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.99, "adjustment_delta": 0.19, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.051, "prob_4_plus": 0.5434, "prob_5_plus": 0.3686, "prob_6_plus": 0.2291, "prob_7_plus": 0.1317, "prob_8_plus": 0.0706, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.5, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.49, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15246.0, "temperature_f": 76.3, "wind_speed_mph": 9.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.13, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nico Hoerner", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Seiya Suzuki", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Michael Busch", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ian Happ", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Alex Bregman", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Matt Shaw", "matchup_score": 46.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 94.8, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Carson Kelly", "matchup_score": 45.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 93.1, "expected_contact_quality": 77.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Dansby Swanson", "matchup_score": 44.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 113.4, "expected_contact_quality": 103.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2165 } }, { "date": "2026-06-11", "game_pk": 824101, "pitcher_id": 677958, "pitcher_name": "Kumar Rocker", "team_id": 140, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_team_id": 118, "opponent_abbr": "KC", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 78.6, "wind_speed_mph": 15.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.94, "skill_score": 2.9, "opportunity_score": 27.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.9, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 83.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.84, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.94, "adjustment_delta": 0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.025, "prob_4_plus": 0.5345, "prob_5_plus": 0.3599, "prob_6_plus": 0.2218, "prob_7_plus": 0.1264, "prob_8_plus": 0.0671, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.26, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6507.0, "temperature_f": 78.6, "wind_speed_mph": 15.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.985, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Isaac Collins", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Salvador Perez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Lane Thomas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Starling Marte", "matchup_score": 52.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 109.0, "expected_contact_quality": 63.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Lane Thomas", "matchup_score": 51.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 111.8, "expected_contact_quality": 85.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Isaac Collins", "matchup_score": 44.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 95.9, "expected_contact_quality": 60.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.199 } }, { "date": "2026-06-11", "game_pk": 824265, "pitcher_id": 672456, "pitcher_name": "Keider Montero", "team_id": 116, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_team_id": 142, "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 87.1, "wind_speed_mph": 10.3, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 3.6, "skill_score": 4.3, "opportunity_score": 50.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 50.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.48, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.6, "adjustment_delta": 0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.045, "prob_4_plus": 0.4719, "prob_5_plus": 0.3002, "prob_6_plus": 0.174, "prob_7_plus": 0.093, "prob_8_plus": 0.0462, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 32.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.08, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9948.0, "temperature_f": 87.1, "wind_speed_mph": 10.3, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.039, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Luke Keaschall", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Byron Buxton", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Josh Bell", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "matchup_score": 45.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 111.3, "expected_contact_quality": 98.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "matchup_score": 42.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 90.7, "expected_contact_quality": 72.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Ryan Jeffers", "matchup_score": 39.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 90.1, "expected_contact_quality": 86.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2319 } }, { "date": "2026-06-11", "game_pk": 824589, "pitcher_id": 527048, "pitcher_name": "Mart\u00edn P\u00e9rez", "team_id": 144, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_team_id": 145, "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 67.1, "wind_speed_mph": 10.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.37, "skill_score": 19.3, "opportunity_score": 48.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 53.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.1, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.37, "adjustment_delta": 0.27, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.089, "prob_4_plus": 0.4271, "prob_5_plus": 0.2602, "prob_6_plus": 0.144, "prob_7_plus": 0.0733, "prob_8_plus": 0.0347, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 32.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.02, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18249.0, "temperature_f": 67.1, "wind_speed_mph": 10.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.031, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Chase Meidroth", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Kyle Teel", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Colson Montgomery", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Andrew Benintendi", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Austin Hays", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Kyle Teel", "matchup_score": 43.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 99.3, "expected_contact_quality": 87.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Brooks Baldwin", "matchup_score": 38.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 91.7, "expected_contact_quality": 87.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Andrew Benintendi", "matchup_score": 34.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 77.8, "expected_contact_quality": 63.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2341 } }, { "date": "2026-06-11", "game_pk": 823619, "pitcher_id": 690928, "pitcher_name": "Hunter Dobbins", "team_id": 138, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_team_id": 121, "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 97.7, "wind_speed_mph": 10.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 3.23, "skill_score": 3.9, "opportunity_score": 15.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 97.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.14, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.23, "adjustment_delta": 0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.04, "prob_4_plus": 0.3991, "prob_5_plus": 0.2362, "prob_6_plus": 0.1268, "prob_7_plus": 0.0625, "prob_8_plus": 0.0286, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 20.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.73, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 4095.0, "temperature_f": 97.7, "wind_speed_mph": 10.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.004, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Juan Soto", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Francisco Lindor", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Bo Bichette", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jorge Polanco", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Marcus Semien", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Luis Robert Jr.", "matchup_score": 28.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 108.0, "expected_contact_quality": 133.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Brett Baty", "matchup_score": 28.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 88.1, "expected_contact_quality": 104.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Mark Vientos", "matchup_score": 27.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 105.1, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.219 } } ], "skipped_starts": [ { "pitcher_id": 681035, "pitcher_name": "Christian Scott", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 663969, "pitcher_name": "Tyler Phillips", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 680736, "pitcher_name": "Justin Wrobleski", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." } ] }