Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / SF · 2026
Schmitt, Casey
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team SF
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 27
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.313 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.357 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.335 |
| Observed weight | 51% |
xwOBA
0.307
0.320
0.335
0.349
0.363
wOBA
0.356
0.376
0.398
0.420
0.439
ISO
0.170
0.189
0.210
0.231
0.251
K%
18.6%
19.8%
21.2%
22.6%
23.8%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%4.4%
10
Barrel%10.2%
94
+38 vs proj
Bat speed69.9
53
Exit velocity89.9
69
Hard-hit%44.8%
71
+22 vs proj
K%19.5%
64
+27 vs proj
xBA0.352
77
xSLG0.661
87
xwOBA0.357
82
+32 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.0 · 1B
26
Outs Above Avg1.0 · 1B
71
Range Runs0.4 · 1B
49
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.1 · DH
37
SB Success Rate80.0% · DH
49
Sprint Speed28.1 · DH
72
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 61.3% · rebadged research
30
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.0% · rebadged research
40
Correct Decisions65.2% · rebadged research
40
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline96
28
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.297 · borderline
24
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.296 · insufficient sample
11
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.332 · validated thin sample
0
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.372 · insufficient sample
3
Resists FastballwOBA 0.325 · validated
79
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.353 · validated
61
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
159 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.048 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.089 |
| Sample | 226 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 389 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 12 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.309 | 0.282 to 0.358 | +/- 0.038 |
| ISO | 0.155 | 0.097 to 0.244 | +/- 0.073 |
| Barrel% | 5.5% | 2.8% to 7.7% | +/- 2.4% |
| Hard-Hit% | 40.0% | 35.3% to 48.1% | +/- 6.4% |
| K% | 24.0% | 19.7% to 27.8% | +/- 4.0% |
| BB% | 6.2% | 5.4% to 9.3% | +/- 2.0% |
| BABIP | 0.283 | 0.236 to 0.329 | +/- 0.046 |
vs LHP
296 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.239 |
| K% | 15.9% |
| BB% | 5.3% |
| Barrel | 4.7% |
vs RHP
481 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.223 |
| K% | 17.3% |
| BB% | 4.5% |
| Barrel | 3.7% |