Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / STL · 2026
Walker, Jordan
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team STL
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 24
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.298 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.379 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.341 |
| Observed weight | 53% |
xwOBA
0.311
0.325
0.341
0.357
0.372
wOBA
0.382
0.401
0.422
0.443
0.461
ISO
0.169
0.186
0.204
0.222
0.238
K%
22.9%
24.3%
26.0%
27.6%
29.0%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%8.7%
45
Barrel%9.9%
93
+31 vs proj
Bat speed77.1
100
Exit velocity94.5
98
Hard-hit%54.2%
96
+24 vs proj
K%24.9%
35
xBA0.386
92
xSLG0.720
93
xwOBA0.379
92
+51 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.7 · RF
77
Arm Strength102.0 · RF
99
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · RF
20
Range Runs-2.1 · RF
19
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.9 · RF
73
Bolts5.0 · RF
56
SB Success Rate71.4% · RF
29
Sprint Speed29.0 · RF
92
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 60.9% · rebadged research
28
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.0% · rebadged research
77
Correct Decisions65.9% · rebadged research
48
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline99
43
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.336 · borderline
2
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.283 · insufficient sample
32
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.326 · validated thin sample
0
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.352 · insufficient sample
11
Resists FastballwOBA 0.347 · validated
36
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.371 · validated
19
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
160 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.078 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.121 |
| Sample | 253 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 429 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 10 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.300 | 0.258 to 0.352 | +/- 0.047 |
| ISO | 0.152 | 0.079 to 0.203 | +/- 0.062 |
| Barrel% | 6.0% | 3.6% to 8.1% | +/- 2.3% |
| Hard-Hit% | 45.1% | 39.3% to 50.5% | +/- 5.6% |
| K% | 27.0% | 22.1% to 32.6% | +/- 5.3% |
| BB% | 7.2% | 4.8% to 10.2% | +/- 2.7% |
| BABIP | 0.299 | 0.260 to 0.352 | +/- 0.046 |
vs LHP
318 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.245 |
| K% | 19.0% |
| BB% | 7.1% |
| Barrel | 4.4% |
vs RHP
805 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.230 |
| K% | 21.8% |
| BB% | 5.6% |
| Barrel | 4.6% |