Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / STL · 2026

Walker, Jordan

Everyday offensive profile with usable floor

Primary
0.300 xwOBA
Range
0.258 to 0.352
Live Δ
yes
Team STL Archetype Balanced regular Age 24 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
95
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
83
Defense4 metrics
38
Speed4 metrics
74
Plate skills10 metrics
26
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
xwOBA preseason0.298
xwOBA current pace0.374
xwOBA rolling p500.348
Observed weight65%
xwOBA
0.322 0.334 0.348 0.361 0.373
wOBA
0.374 0.388 0.405 0.421 0.436
ISO
0.176 0.189 0.204 0.218 0.232
K%
23.3% 24.5% 25.8% 27.2% 28.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%9.5%
94 +28 vs proj
Exit velocity94.2
98
Hard-hit%52.4%
95 +19 vs proj
xBA0.396
96
xSLG0.715
95
xwOBA0.374
95 +51 vs proj
BB%8.0%
43
Bat speed77.4
100
K%25.1%
36
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.4 · RF
40
Arm Strength102.0 · RF
99
Outs Above Avg-5.0 · RF
2
Range Runs-4.2 · RF
9
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.0 · RF
72
Bolts16.0 · RF
76
SB Success Rate83.3% · RF
57
Sprint Speed29.1 · RF
92
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-07-16
Avoids Bad ChasesST 60.9% · rebadged research
28
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.7% · rebadged research
65
Correct Decisions65.4% · rebadged research
42
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
35
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.324 · borderline
5
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.290 · insufficient sample
20
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.336 · validated thin sample
0
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.360 · insufficient sample
8
Resists FastballwOBA 0.359 · validated
17
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.361 · validated
42
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Walker, Jordan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.308 0.374 2026-07-05: 0.3622026-07-06: 0.3632026-07-07: 0.3682026-07-08: 0.3682026-07-09: 0.3702026-07-10: 0.3742026-07-11: 0.3762026-07-12: 0.3742026-07-13: 0.3742026-07-14: 0.3742026-07-15: 0.3742026-07-16: 0.374 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Jordan Walker's tools (80) outpace production (74) by 6 points. Primary finding: expanding the zone too aggressively — generating weak contact and whiffs on pitcher's pitches. Also flagged: Contact-Discipline Mismatch.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Chase Rate Problem
Hold Hold Hold Hold Attack Hold Hold Hold Hold

Pitch recognition training and two-strike approach adjustment

Protected takes / Chase risk
Contact-Discipline Mismatch
Hold Hold Hold Hold Attack Hold Hold Hold Hold

Shorten swing against breaking balls while maintaining bat speed on fastballs

Protected takes / Chase risk
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

184 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Walker, Jordan · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 15% of plotted batted ballsPull 15%Center field third: 71% of plotted batted ballsCenter 71%Right field third: 15% of plotted batted ballsOppo 15% LF 336 CF 400 RF 335 2026-03-17 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 101.8 / LA -1.02026-03-17 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 96.6 / LA 15.02026-03-18 · grounded into double play · ST · ground_ball · EV 58.4 / LA -13.02026-03-20 · field out · FF · popup · EV 95.7 / LA 59.02026-03-20 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 85.8 / LA 12.02026-03-20 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 106.0 / LA 25.02026-03-22 · field out · ST · line_drive · EV 101.2 / LA 16.02026-03-22 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 106.5 / LA 14.02026-03-22 · home run · FF · line_drive · EV 111.3 / LA 20.02026-03-26 · double · CH · line_drive · EV 100.4 / LA 22.02026-03-26 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 99.4 / LA 3.02026-03-26 · field error · SI · ground_ball · EV 78.5 / LA -27.02026-03-26 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 98.7 / LA 34.02026-03-28 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 104.9 / LA -14.02026-03-28 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 103.7 / LA 30.02026-03-29 · home run · CH · fly_ball · EV 105.8 / LA 27.02026-03-29 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 114.9 / LA 13.02026-03-29 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 97.5 / LA 9.02026-03-30 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 71.5 / LA -52.02026-03-30 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 98.9 / LA 55.02026-03-30 · field out · FF · popup · EV 93.7 / LA 62.02026-03-31 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 97.0 / LA -21.02026-03-31 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 102.6 / LA 49.02026-04-03 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 91.3 / LA 55.02026-04-03 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 95.4 / LA -35.02026-04-03 · force out · FF · ground_ball · EV 99.1 / LA -31.02026-04-04 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 111.1 / LA 2.02026-04-04 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 113.7 / LA 22.02026-04-04 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 89.4 / LA 17.02026-04-05 · single · SI · fly_ball · EV 71.6 / LA 28.02026-04-06 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 115.2 / LA -5.02026-04-06 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 104.4 / LA 32.02026-04-06 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 100.7 / LA 13.02026-04-07 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 81.8 / LA 48.02026-04-07 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 109.1 / LA 26.02026-04-07 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 106.1 / LA 19.02026-04-07 · fielders choice · ST · ground_ball · EV 73.3 / LA -11.02026-04-08 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 83.0 / LA -33.02026-04-08 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 107.8 / LA 31.02026-04-10 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 104.9 / LA 11.02026-04-10 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 114.6 / LA -15.02026-04-10 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 80.3 / LA 18.02026-04-11 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 109.6 / LA 26.02026-04-12 · home run · FC · fly_ball · EV 103.8 / LA 29.02026-04-12 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 112.2 / LA 11.02026-04-12 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 75.3 / LA 7.02026-04-12 · field out · ST · popup · EV 66.6 / LA 58.02026-04-13 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 86.3 / LA 32.02026-04-13 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 87.5 / LA 33.02026-04-13 · home run · ST · line_drive · EV 107.6 / LA 20.02026-04-13 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 72.4 / LA -24.02026-04-14 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 100.2 / LA -27.02026-04-14 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 80.9 / LA 18.02026-04-14 · field out · ST · popup · EV 88.6 / LA 70.02026-04-15 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 86.3 / LA 56.02026-04-15 · double · ST · line_drive · EV 98.3 / LA 17.02026-04-15 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 80.8 / LA 47.02026-04-17 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 114.7 / LA 10.02026-04-17 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 109.9 / LA -2.02026-04-18 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 89.5 / LA 21.02026-04-18 · single · FC · fly_ball · EV 71.2 / LA 46.02026-04-19 · double · SL · fly_ball · EV 98.0 / LA 30.02026-04-19 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 80.2 / LA 10.02026-04-19 · field error · CH · ground_ball · EV 87.3 / LA -6.02026-04-20 · single · ST · ground_ball · EV 112.1 / LA -5.02026-04-21 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 76.9 / LA 0.02026-04-21 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 90.6 / LA 44.02026-04-24 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 72.2 / LA -17.02026-04-24 · grounded into double play · ST · ground_ball · EV 110.4 / LA -1.02026-04-25 · grounded into double play · FC · ground_ball · EV 95.6 / LA 1.02026-04-25 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 105.3 / LA 8.02026-04-26 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 77.6 / LA -17.02026-04-26 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 68.2 / LA -45.02026-04-27 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 103.2 / LA -8.02026-04-28 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 109.1 / LA -6.02026-04-28 · sac fly · FF · fly_ball · EV 99.3 / LA 25.02026-04-28 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 104.6 / LA -1.02026-04-28 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 87.2 / LA 40.02026-04-29 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 105.7 / LA -3.02026-04-29 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 93.7 / LA -6.02026-04-29 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 99.8 / LA 39.02026-04-30 · home run · ST · fly_ball · EV 107.0 / LA 40.02026-04-30 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 82.8 / LA 28.02026-04-30 · force out · FF · ground_ball · EV 112.9 / LA 2.02026-04-30 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 114.0 / LA 10.02026-05-01 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 86.9 / LA 18.02026-05-01 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 107.8 / LA 3.02026-05-01 · double · CU · line_drive · EV 85.5 / LA 15.02026-05-01 · double · SL · line_drive · EV 101.6 / LA 12.02026-05-02 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 94.9 / LA 49.02026-05-02 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 100.8 / LA 19.02026-05-02 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 107.9 / LA 0.02026-05-02 · home run · FO · line_drive · EV 110.0 / LA 17.02026-05-03 · field out · FF · popup · EV 84.3 / LA 70.02026-05-03 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 105.6 / LA 26.02026-05-03 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 109.4 / LA -24.02026-05-04 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 71.5 / LA 23.02026-05-06 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 91.4 / LA 37.02026-05-06 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 58.4 / LA -73.02026-05-07 · field out · FF · popup · EV 76.6 / LA 60.02026-05-07 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 88.8 / LA 49.02026-05-07 · double · CH · fly_ball · EV 96.2 / LA 24.02026-05-07 · double · SL · ground_ball · EV 115.6 / LA 3.02026-05-08 · force out · CH · ground_ball · EV 84.8 / LA 4.02026-05-09 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 92.7 / LA -6.02026-05-09 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 93.5 / LA 42.02026-05-09 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 93.9 / LA 6.02026-05-10 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 84.9 / LA 35.02026-05-10 · home run · KC · fly_ball · EV 108.3 / LA 31.02026-05-10 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 104.6 / LA -17.02026-05-12 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 89.7 / LA 18.02026-05-12 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 93.8 / LA 35.02026-05-12 · double · SI · ground_ball · EV 83.2 / LA -1.02026-05-13 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 96.3 / LA 35.02026-05-13 · field out · FC · popup · EV 85.0 / LA 66.02026-05-14 · home run · FF · line_drive · EV 105.4 / LA 20.02026-05-14 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 100.1 / LA 21.02026-05-14 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 70.2 / LA 33.02026-05-14 · field out · ST · popup · EV 83.2 / LA 68.02026-05-14 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 110.5 / LA 2.02026-05-15 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 107.5 / LA -2.02026-05-15 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 69.6 / LA 19.02026-05-15 · home run · CH · fly_ball · EV 104.5 / LA 30.02026-05-15 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 96.8 / LA -33.02026-05-16 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 84.2 / LA 1.02026-05-16 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 73.5 / LA -24.02026-05-16 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 104.8 / LA 44.02026-05-17 · force out · ST · ground_ball · EV 89.8 / LA 4.02026-05-17 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 86.5 / LA -11.02026-05-17 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 112.8 / LA -8.02026-05-17 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 100.5 / LA -16.02026-05-19 · field out · SL · popup · EV 70.0 / LA 73.02026-05-19 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 110.8 / LA 7.02026-05-19 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 82.9 / LA -11.02026-05-19 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 85.8 / LA -45.02026-05-20 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 91.9 / LA 40.02026-05-20 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 86.5 / LA -10.02026-05-21 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 112.2 / LA -11.02026-05-21 · field out · SL · popup · EV 79.8 / LA 78.02026-05-21 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 88.7 / LA 11.02026-05-23 · double · SL · line_drive · EV 103.9 / LA 19.02026-05-23 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 112.1 / LA 30.02026-05-23 · single · SV · ground_ball · EV 95.6 / LA -5.02026-05-23 · force out · CU · ground_ball · EV 90.8 / LA -21.02026-05-23 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 93.4 / LA 60.02026-05-23 · home run · FF · line_drive · EV 108.0 / LA 21.02026-05-23 · field out · SL · popup · EV 75.0 / LA 72.02026-05-25 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 78.6 / LA 45.02026-05-25 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 81.7 / LA 2.02026-05-26 · field out · SV · fly_ball · EV 80.1 / LA 37.02026-05-26 · field out · SV · line_drive · EV 103.5 / LA 9.02026-05-26 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 98.6 / LA -15.02026-05-26 · field error · SV · ground_ball · EV 98.8 / LA 4.02026-05-27 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 82.2 / LA 13.02026-05-27 · single · SI · fly_ball · EV 74.0 / LA 28.02026-05-27 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 104.9 / LA -23.02026-05-27 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 98.0 / LA -15.02026-05-31 · grounded into double play · FF · ground_ball · EV 96.9 / LA -14.02026-05-31 · field out · ST · popup · EV 94.7 / LA 59.02026-05-31 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 99.0 / LA 7.02026-06-05 · double · FC · line_drive · EV 111.0 / LA 12.02026-06-05 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 89.9 / LA 28.02026-06-05 · double · CH · line_drive · EV 103.7 / LA 18.02026-06-05 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 86.3 / LA -9.02026-06-07 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 106.1 / LA 17.02026-06-07 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 109.8 / LA 5.02026-06-07 · field out · SL · popup · EV 85.8 / LA 77.02026-06-07 · force out · SV · ground_ball · EV 102.1 / LA -5.02026-06-15 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 115.0 / LA 9.02026-06-15 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 99.4 / LA -20.02026-06-15 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 111.5 / LA 4.02026-06-18 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 97.8 / LA 7.02026-06-18 · single · CU · ground_ball · EV 97.2 / LA 4.02026-06-18 · fielders choice · CH · ground_ball · EV 109.9 / LA -7.02026-06-22 · field out · FC · popup · EV 76.4 / LA 64.02026-06-22 · grounded into double play · SL · ground_ball · EV 81.6 / LA -5.02026-06-22 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 78.9 / LA 12.02026-06-24 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 107.1 / LA 8.02026-06-26 · force out · ST · ground_ball · EV 67.7 / LA -6.02026-06-26 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 95.3 / LA -36.02026-06-26 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 80.2 / LA -46.02026-06-30 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 65.0 / LA -69.02026-06-30 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 102.5 / LA 15.02026-07-01 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 102.4 / LA 11.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics BAT SPEED DISTRIBUTION Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Bat Speed Walker, Jordan · aggregate bat speed marker 60 mph 85 mph Avg bat speed 77.7 mph Hard swing rate 76% Whiff / swing 32% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Walker, Jordan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 46%46%Chase: 35%35%Whiff: 29%29%Zone contact: 81%81%Contact: 71%71%Hard hit: 52%52% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ+0.073
wOBA Δ+0.104
Sample410 PA

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances429----
Home Runs10----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3000.258 to 0.352+/- 0.047
ISO0.1520.079 to 0.203+/- 0.062
Barrel%6.0%3.5% to 8.1%+/- 2.3%
Hard-Hit%45.1%39.3% to 50.5%+/- 5.6%
K%27.0%22.1% to 32.6%+/- 5.3%
BB%7.2%4.8% to 10.2%+/- 2.7%
BABIP0.2990.260 to 0.352+/- 0.046
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

318 career PA

xwOBA0.245
K%19.0%
BB%7.1%
Barrel4.4%
vs RHP

805 career PA

xwOBA0.230
K%21.8%
BB%5.6%
Barrel4.6%