Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / PIT · 2026

Gonzales, Nick

Everyday offensive profile with usable floor

Primary
0.308 xwOBA
Range
0.284 to 0.335
Live Δ
yes
Team PIT Archetype Ground-ball contact Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
43
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
44
Defense4 metrics
49
Speed3 metrics
70
Plate skills10 metrics
59
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
xwOBA preseason0.307
xwOBA current pace0.327
xwOBA rolling p500.320
Observed weight64%
xwOBA
0.299 0.309 0.320 0.331 0.342
wOBA
0.330 0.345 0.361 0.378 0.392
ISO
0.084 0.096 0.108 0.121 0.133
K%
16.4% 17.4% 18.6% 19.8% 20.9%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%1.8%
11 -29 vs proj
Exit velocity85.9
25
Hard-hit%36.3%
36
xBA0.354
81
xSLG0.478
39
xwOBA0.327
69 +19 vs proj
BB%7.2%
32 +19 vs proj
Bat speed68.3
31
K%17.9%
74
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.1 · 3B
54
Arm Strength83.5 · 3B
28
Outs Above Avg2.0 · 3B
77
Range Runs-1.4 · 3B
35
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.1 · 3B
73
Bolts4.0 · 3B
50
Sprint Speed28.7 · 3B
86
SB Success Rate75.0% · 3B
Small sample
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-07-17
Avoids Bad ChasesST 63.1% · rebadged research
37
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 19.8% · rebadged research
89
Correct Decisions69.2% · rebadged research
80
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103
64
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.301 · borderline
22
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.272 · insufficient sample
75
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.292 · validated thin sample
21
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.327 · insufficient sample
66
Resists FastballwOBA 0.325 · validated
77
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.357 · validated
54
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Gonzales, Nick · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.308 0.327 2026-07-06: 0.3262026-07-07: 0.3272026-07-08: 0.3272026-07-09: 0.3272026-07-10: 0.3272026-07-11: 0.3302026-07-12: 0.3302026-07-13: 0.3282026-07-14: 0.3272026-07-15: 0.3272026-07-16: 0.3272026-07-17: 0.327 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Nick Gonzales's tools (60) outpace production (67) by -7 points. Primary finding: groundball-heavy approach with the raw power to drive the ball — leaving fly-ball damage on the table. Also flagged: Power Efficiency Gap. Most actionable fix: elevate bat path to increase average launch angle toward 12-18° range.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Launch Angle Too Low
+10.7° Current 5° → Target 16°

Elevate bat path to increase average launch angle toward 12-18° range

Solid = current angle. Dotted = recommended window.
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

189 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Gonzales, Nick · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 12% of plotted batted ballsPull 12%Center field third: 71% of plotted batted ballsCenter 71%Right field third: 16% of plotted batted ballsOppo 16% LF 325 CF 399 RF 320 2026-03-16 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 97.5 / LA 12.02026-03-16 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 95.3 / LA 52.02026-03-17 · force out · FF · ground_ball · EV 104.8 / LA -21.02026-03-17 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 94.2 / LA -21.02026-03-17 · grounded into double play · ST · ground_ball · EV 101.3 / LA -6.02026-03-19 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 92.9 / LA 25.02026-03-20 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 77.2 / LA 41.02026-03-20 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 86.1 / LA -7.02026-03-22 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 104.8 / LA 10.02026-03-22 · grounded into double play · FC · ground_ball · EV 70.6 / LA -7.02026-03-22 · field out · ST · popup · EV 79.7 / LA 74.02026-03-23 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 94.5 / LA -3.02026-03-23 · double · CH · fly_ball · EV 89.9 / LA 31.02026-03-26 · single · CH · fly_ball · EV 72.0 / LA 26.02026-03-26 · field out · CS · ground_ball · EV 35.9 / LA -83.02026-03-26 · double · ST · line_drive · EV 103.8 / LA 19.02026-03-28 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 99.3 / LA -3.02026-03-28 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 90.3 / LA 13.02026-03-28 · field out · ST · popup · EV 82.6 / LA 63.02026-03-29 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 60.0 / LA -52.02026-03-29 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 93.0 / LA -21.02026-03-29 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 108.6 / LA -22.02026-03-30 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 97.2 / LA -10.02026-03-30 · force out · SL · ground_ball · EV 69.1 / LA -8.02026-03-30 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 104.6 / LA 2.02026-03-30 · field out · ST · popup · EV 71.7 / LA 39.02026-03-31 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 90.3 / LA 15.02026-03-31 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 103.3 / LA 10.02026-03-31 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 88.8 / LA 45.02026-03-31 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 72.5 / LA -29.02026-04-01 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 68.0 / LA -14.02026-04-01 · double · FC · line_drive · EV 102.4 / LA 21.02026-04-01 · single · FS · ground_ball · EV 92.7 / LA 7.02026-04-01 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 83.6 / LA -12.02026-04-04 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 92.2 / LA 37.02026-04-04 · field out · FC · line_drive · EV 79.6 / LA 12.02026-04-06 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 89.4 / LA 29.02026-04-06 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 60.9 / LA 9.02026-04-06 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 106.1 / LA 7.02026-04-07 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 63.4 / LA -30.02026-04-07 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 89.9 / LA -7.02026-04-07 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 82.9 / LA 6.02026-04-08 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 95.8 / LA 42.02026-04-08 · field out · ST · line_drive · EV 97.4 / LA 23.02026-04-08 · double · CH · line_drive · EV 103.5 / LA 14.02026-04-08 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 98.7 / LA 27.02026-04-10 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 99.8 / LA 38.02026-04-10 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 100.5 / LA 8.02026-04-11 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 64.3 / LA -14.02026-04-14 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 92.6 / LA 7.02026-04-14 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 97.9 / LA -11.02026-04-14 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 98.4 / LA -7.02026-04-15 · single · ST · ground_ball · EV 60.4 / LA -22.02026-04-15 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 57.6 / LA -48.02026-04-15 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 109.7 / LA -13.02026-04-16 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 86.9 / LA -21.02026-04-16 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 96.0 / LA 2.02026-04-16 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 97.2 / LA 14.02026-04-17 · force out · CU · ground_ball · EV 87.3 / LA 0.02026-04-17 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 70.9 / LA 40.02026-04-17 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 70.1 / LA -51.02026-04-18 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 88.0 / LA -14.02026-04-19 · single · CU · line_drive · EV 97.5 / LA 15.02026-04-19 · field out · FF · popup · EV 79.4 / LA 80.02026-04-19 · single · SL · fly_ball · EV 72.0 / LA 35.02026-04-19 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 80.2 / LA -26.02026-04-21 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 96.1 / LA 1.02026-04-21 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 85.9 / LA 24.02026-04-22 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 97.7 / LA 52.02026-04-22 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 100.6 / LA -1.02026-04-22 · force out · FC · ground_ball · EV 77.6 / LA -14.02026-04-22 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 74.8 / LA 24.02026-04-23 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 90.1 / LA 13.02026-04-23 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 104.5 / LA 13.02026-04-23 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 98.1 / LA -4.02026-04-24 · field error · SL · ground_ball · EV 96.8 / LA 5.02026-04-24 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 92.1 / LA 37.02026-04-24 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 103.8 / LA 13.02026-04-24 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 86.1 / LA -18.02026-04-25 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 102.6 / LA 11.02026-04-25 · force out · FF · ground_ball · EV 78.7 / LA -28.02026-04-25 · single · FF · fly_ball · EV 68.5 / LA 28.02026-04-25 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 97.5 / LA 11.02026-04-26 · double · KC · line_drive · EV 74.0 / LA 24.02026-04-27 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 99.5 / LA 21.02026-04-27 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 98.0 / LA 9.02026-04-27 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 104.0 / LA 5.02026-04-28 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 96.3 / LA 7.02026-04-28 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 71.5 / LA 18.02026-04-28 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 100.6 / LA -14.02026-04-28 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 84.4 / LA 22.02026-04-29 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 90.3 / LA -6.02026-04-29 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 59.9 / LA -5.02026-04-29 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 97.8 / LA 34.02026-04-30 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 83.3 / LA -24.02026-04-30 · field out · ST · line_drive · EV 92.1 / LA 24.02026-05-01 · single · ST · fly_ball · EV 68.2 / LA 32.02026-05-01 · single · CU · line_drive · EV 91.8 / LA 10.02026-05-01 · field out · EP · ground_ball · EV 72.0 / LA -18.02026-05-01 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 34.3 / LA -27.02026-05-02 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 90.1 / LA -17.02026-05-02 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 75.2 / LA 18.02026-05-02 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 100.5 / LA 12.02026-05-02 · grounded into double play · FA · ground_ball · EV 100.6 / LA 3.02026-05-03 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 95.8 / LA 24.02026-05-03 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 72.7 / LA -8.02026-05-05 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 69.5 / LA -6.02026-05-05 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 69.0 / LA 1.02026-05-05 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 97.0 / LA 1.02026-05-06 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 89.2 / LA -4.02026-05-06 · field out · SV · fly_ball · EV 91.8 / LA 34.02026-05-08 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 99.8 / LA 33.02026-05-09 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 103.5 / LA -13.02026-05-09 · double · EP · line_drive · EV 89.1 / LA 24.02026-05-09 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 74.1 / LA -45.02026-05-09 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 85.0 / LA 5.02026-05-09 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 98.0 / LA 10.02026-05-10 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 62.3 / LA -1.02026-05-10 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 101.1 / LA -1.02026-05-10 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 90.6 / LA 41.02026-05-10 · field out · FC · line_drive · EV 99.8 / LA 21.02026-05-10 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 57.1 / LA 5.02026-05-10 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 98.6 / LA -4.02026-05-12 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 105.8 / LA 9.02026-05-12 · double · ST · line_drive · EV 101.5 / LA 22.02026-05-12 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 90.3 / LA -6.02026-05-13 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 90.9 / LA 34.02026-05-13 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 36.5 / LA -32.02026-05-13 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 93.2 / LA 38.02026-05-15 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 85.5 / LA -4.02026-05-16 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 101.3 / LA 12.02026-05-16 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 103.2 / LA 0.02026-05-16 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 97.9 / LA -2.02026-05-17 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 89.0 / LA -5.02026-05-17 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 98.2 / LA 14.02026-05-17 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 86.5 / LA 24.02026-05-17 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 45.1 / LA -41.02026-05-19 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 76.3 / LA 19.02026-05-19 · force out · CH · ground_ball · EV 67.9 / LA -54.02026-05-19 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 86.6 / LA -4.02026-05-19 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 89.3 / LA 4.02026-05-20 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 88.7 / LA 17.02026-05-20 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 41.6 / LA -59.02026-05-20 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 96.6 / LA 4.02026-05-20 · sac fly · FF · fly_ball · EV 81.2 / LA 36.02026-05-20 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 93.9 / LA -6.02026-05-22 · field out · FF · popup · EV 101.8 / LA 63.02026-05-22 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 106.7 / LA 8.02026-05-22 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 98.4 / LA 36.02026-05-23 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 95.2 / LA 37.02026-05-23 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 62.1 / LA -34.02026-05-23 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 97.7 / LA -3.02026-05-24 · field out · SL · popup · EV 67.4 / LA 47.02026-05-25 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 85.1 / LA 52.02026-05-25 · field out · KC · fly_ball · EV 101.7 / LA 24.02026-05-25 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 75.8 / LA -44.02026-05-26 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 73.3 / LA 26.02026-05-26 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 85.5 / LA 28.02026-05-26 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 77.0 / LA 21.02026-05-26 · field out · SL · popup · EV 75.6 / LA 70.02026-05-27 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 53.9 / LA 2.02026-05-27 · field out · SI · popup · EV 53.8 / LA 76.02026-05-27 · force out · CU · ground_ball · EV 47.1 / LA -73.02026-05-31 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 103.5 / LA 26.02026-06-04 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 101.3 / LA 1.02026-06-04 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 101.5 / LA 33.02026-06-04 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 29.1 / LA 24.02026-06-05 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 53.2 / LA -64.02026-06-05 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 95.3 / LA 9.02026-06-05 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 63.1 / LA -13.02026-06-07 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 58.6 / LA 35.02026-06-07 · grounded into double play · SL · ground_ball · EV 81.2 / LA 3.02026-06-07 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 93.6 / LA -29.02026-06-15 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 93.5 / LA -12.02026-06-15 · field error · SI · ground_ball · EV 97.6 / LA -22.02026-06-15 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 77.7 / LA 29.02026-06-20 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 93.7 / LA 64.02026-06-24 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 83.3 / LA -30.02026-06-24 · force out · FF · ground_ball · EV 85.1 / LA -12.02026-06-24 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 84.1 / LA -39.02026-06-24 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 69.6 / LA 16.02026-06-26 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 61.0 / LA -31.02026-06-30 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 93.2 / LA -3.02026-06-30 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 97.0 / LA 19.02026-06-30 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 64.0 / LA -30.02026-07-01 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 63.4 / LA 25.02026-07-01 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 79.6 / LA -42.02026-07-01 · field out · KC · ground_ball · EV 74.1 / LA 1.02026-07-01 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 102.0 / LA 5.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics BAT SPEED DISTRIBUTION Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Bat Speed Gonzales, Nick · aggregate bat speed marker 60 mph 85 mph Avg bat speed 69.6 mph Hard swing rate 6% Whiff / swing 23% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Gonzales, Nick · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 48%48%Chase: 33%33%Whiff: 21%21%Zone contact: 87%87%Contact: 79%79%Hard hit: 36%36% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ+0.019
wOBA Δ+0.053
Sample390 PA

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances454----
Home Runs9----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3080.284 to 0.335+/- 0.025
ISO0.1260.094 to 0.214+/- 0.060
Barrel%4.3%3.2% to 7.2%+/- 2.0%
Hard-Hit%36.9%34.1% to 44.9%+/- 5.4%
K%18.7%15.9% to 24.9%+/- 4.5%
BB%5.2%3.9% to 8.2%+/- 2.2%
BABIP0.2910.270 to 0.354+/- 0.042
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

257 career PA

xwOBA0.255
K%16.8%
BB%4.6%
Barrel5.5%
vs RHP

727 career PA

xwOBA0.232
K%14.6%
BB%3.8%
Barrel3.4%