Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / PIT · 2026
Gonzales, Nick
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team PIT
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 27
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
45
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.307 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.325 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.321 |
| Observed weight | 74% |
xwOBA
0.302
0.311
0.321
0.331
0.340
wOBA
0.328
0.339
0.352
0.365
0.377
ISO
0.085
0.094
0.104
0.114
0.123
K%
15.6%
16.5%
17.4%
18.4%
19.3%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%2.3%
15
-27 vs proj
Exit velocity86.3
33
Hard-hit%34.1%
31
xBA0.342
77
xSLG0.469
39
xwOBA0.325
73
+18 vs proj
BB%6.9%
32
+17 vs proj
Bat speed68.7
36
K%16.6%
83
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.1 · 3B
50
Arm Strength89.7 · 3B
70
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · 3B
27
Range Runs-8.3 · 3B
5
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.0 · 3B
64
Bolts12.0 · 3B
66
SB Success Rate80.0% · 3B
48
Sprint Speed28.8 · 3B
86
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 62.8% · rebadged research
35
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.1% · rebadged research
86
Correct Decisions68.1% · rebadged research
71
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline102
57
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.298 · borderline
31
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.288 · insufficient sample
27
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.281 · validated thin sample
42
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.324 · insufficient sample
51
Resists FastballwOBA 0.325 · validated
76
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.352 · validated
65
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
290 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.017 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.044 |
| Sample | 622 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 454 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 9 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.308 | 0.284 to 0.335 | +/- 0.025 |
| ISO | 0.126 | 0.094 to 0.214 | +/- 0.060 |
| Barrel% | 4.3% | 3.2% to 7.2% | +/- 2.0% |
| Hard-Hit% | 36.9% | 34.1% to 44.9% | +/- 5.4% |
| K% | 18.7% | 15.9% to 24.9% | +/- 4.5% |
| BB% | 5.2% | 3.9% to 8.2% | +/- 2.2% |
| BABIP | 0.291 | 0.270 to 0.354 | +/- 0.042 |
vs LHP
257 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.255 |
| K% | 16.8% |
| BB% | 4.6% |
| Barrel | 5.5% |
vs RHP
727 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.232 |
| K% | 14.6% |
| BB% | 3.8% |
| Barrel | 3.4% |