Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / PIT · 2026
Gonzales, Nick
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team PIT
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 27
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.307 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.337 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.323 |
| Observed weight | 51% |
xwOBA
0.299
0.310
0.323
0.335
0.347
wOBA
0.307
0.326
0.347
0.368
0.387
ISO
0.075
0.090
0.106
0.123
0.137
K%
16.2%
17.5%
18.9%
20.4%
21.7%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%6.0%
21
Barrel%1.7%
10
-30 vs proj
Bat speed68.7
37
Exit velocity86.3
25
Hard-hit%39.1%
46
K%18.0%
74
xBA0.377
90
xSLG0.497
46
xwOBA0.337
74
+25 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.1 · 3B
61
Arm Strength83.5 · 3B
31
Outs Above Avg2.0 · 3B
81
Range Runs2.0 · 3B
75
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.0 · 3B
79
Sprint Speed28.5 · 3B
83
SB Success Rate75.0% · 3B
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 63.3% · rebadged research
40
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 20.4% · rebadged research
88
Correct Decisions69.4% · rebadged research
80
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103
62
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.312 · borderline
11
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.273 · insufficient sample
67
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.288 · validated thin sample
21
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.329 · insufficient sample
60
Resists FastballwOBA 0.328 · validated
74
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.353 · validated
60
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
164 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.029 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.039 |
| Sample | 233 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 454 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 9 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.308 | 0.284 to 0.335 | +/- 0.025 |
| ISO | 0.126 | 0.094 to 0.214 | +/- 0.060 |
| Barrel% | 4.3% | 3.2% to 7.2% | +/- 2.0% |
| Hard-Hit% | 36.9% | 34.1% to 44.9% | +/- 5.4% |
| K% | 18.7% | 15.9% to 24.9% | +/- 4.5% |
| BB% | 5.2% | 3.9% to 8.2% | +/- 2.2% |
| BABIP | 0.291 | 0.270 to 0.354 | +/- 0.042 |
vs LHP
257 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.255 |
| K% | 16.8% |
| BB% | 4.6% |
| Barrel | 5.5% |
vs RHP
727 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.232 |
| K% | 14.6% |
| BB% | 3.8% |
| Barrel | 3.4% |