Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / MIA · 2026
Lopez, Otto
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team MIA
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 28
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
60
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.330 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.328 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.329 |
| Observed weight | 76% |
xwOBA
0.310
0.319
0.329
0.339
0.348
wOBA
0.344
0.355
0.368
0.380
0.391
ISO
0.124
0.133
0.142
0.152
0.160
K%
11.7%
12.4%
13.3%
14.1%
14.8%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.9%
51
Exit velocity88.6
59
Hard-hit%41.2%
64
+17 vs proj
xBA0.329
63
xSLG0.489
46
xwOBA0.328
76
BB%5.7%
20
Bat speed69.5
48
K%13.0%
95
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.7 · SS
95
Arm Strength89.9 · SS
72
Outs Above Avg14.0 · SS
97
Range Runs10.1 · SS
96
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs5.0 · SS
96
Bolts4.0 · SS
39
SB Success Rate84.8% · SS
62
Sprint Speed28.5 · SS
80
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 64.7% · rebadged research
47
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 30.2% · rebadged research
12
Correct Decisions63.8% · rebadged research
27
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.332 · borderline
5
Resists FastballwOBA 0.385 · validated
6
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline95
25
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.269 · insufficient sample
81
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.280 · validated thin sample
46
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.323 · insufficient sample
56
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.406 · validated
3
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
300 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.015 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.054 |
| Sample | 698 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 552 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 12 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.314 | 0.301 to 0.368 | +/- 0.034 |
| ISO | 0.141 | 0.094 to 0.199 | +/- 0.053 |
| Barrel% | 4.6% | 3.2% to 7.2% | +/- 2.0% |
| Hard-Hit% | 37.5% | 34.1% to 45.3% | +/- 5.6% |
| K% | 14.7% | 12.5% to 20.4% | +/- 4.0% |
| BB% | 6.9% | 5.0% to 10.4% | +/- 2.7% |
| BABIP | 0.284 | 0.271 to 0.328 | +/- 0.029 |
vs LHP
345 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.243 |
| K% | 12.9% |
| BB% | 5.1% |
| Barrel | 3.6% |
vs RHP
757 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.266 |
| K% | 11.7% |
| BB% | 6.0% |
| Barrel | 4.1% |