Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / MIA · 2026
Lopez, Otto
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team MIA
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 28
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.330 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.333 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.332 |
| Observed weight | 54% |
xwOBA
0.306
0.318
0.332
0.345
0.357
wOBA
0.361
0.379
0.400
0.420
0.439
ISO
0.119
0.132
0.147
0.162
0.176
K%
12.8%
13.9%
15.2%
16.4%
17.6%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%3.5%
6
-22 vs proj
Barrel%6.2%
64
+22 vs proj
Bat speed69.9
53
Exit velocity90.0
71
Hard-hit%44.8%
71
+31 vs proj
K%16.2%
83
xBA0.351
75
xSLG0.539
59
xwOBA0.333
70
+15 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.8 · SS
96
Arm Strength83.9 · SS
35
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · SS
27
Range Runs-0.5 · SS
36
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.3 · SS
87
Bolts1.0 · SS
17
SB Success Rate75.0% · SS
35
Sprint Speed28.5 · SS
83
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 61.1% · rebadged research
29
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 34.2% · rebadged research
5
Correct Decisions60.6% · rebadged research
10
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline90
10
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.339 · borderline
1
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.273 · insufficient sample
62
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.296 · validated thin sample
11
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.332 · insufficient sample
48
Resists FastballwOBA 0.352 · validated
30
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.403 · validated
2
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
198 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.019 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.086 |
| Sample | 260 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 552 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 12 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.314 | 0.301 to 0.368 | +/- 0.034 |
| ISO | 0.141 | 0.094 to 0.199 | +/- 0.053 |
| Barrel% | 4.6% | 3.2% to 7.2% | +/- 2.0% |
| Hard-Hit% | 37.5% | 34.1% to 45.3% | +/- 5.6% |
| K% | 14.7% | 12.5% to 20.4% | +/- 4.0% |
| BB% | 6.9% | 5.0% to 10.4% | +/- 2.7% |
| BABIP | 0.284 | 0.271 to 0.328 | +/- 0.029 |
vs LHP
345 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.243 |
| K% | 12.9% |
| BB% | 5.1% |
| Barrel | 3.6% |
vs RHP
757 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.266 |
| K% | 11.7% |
| BB% | 6.0% |
| Barrel | 4.1% |