Mithrandir Metrics

Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections

	PA	R	H	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2024	387	42	97	7	5	.270	.311	.398	.709
2025	408	39	99	5	0	.260	.299	.362	.661
2026	373	51	104	4	4	.308	.370	.391	.761
4 Seasons	1296	144	324	18	9	.272	.320	.380	.700

At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17

43

Offense
percentile

Offense9 metrics

44

Defense4 metrics

49

Speed3 metrics

70

Plate skills10 metrics

59

Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17

xwOBA preseason	0.307
xwOBA current pace	0.327
xwOBA rolling p50	0.320
Observed weight	64%

xwOBA

0.299 0.309 0.320 0.331 0.342

wOBA

0.330 0.345 0.361 0.378 0.392

ISO

0.084 0.096 0.108 0.121 0.133

K%

16.4% 17.4% 18.6% 19.8% 20.9%

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17

Hitting · percentile strip

Barrel%1.8%

11 -29 vs proj

Exit velocity85.9

25

Hard-hit%36.3%

36

xBA0.354

81

xSLG0.478

39

xwOBA0.327

69 +19 vs proj

BB%7.2%

32 +19 vs proj

Bat speed68.3

31

K%17.9%

74

Defense · percentile strip

Arm Runs0.1 · 3B

54

Arm Strength83.5 · 3B

28

Outs Above Avg2.0 · 3B

77

Range Runs-1.4 · 3B

35

Baserunning · percentile strip

Base Running Runs1.1 · 3B

73

Bolts4.0 · 3B

50

Sprint Speed28.7 · 3B

86

SB Success Rate75.0% · 3B

Small sample

Mithrandir+

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.

2026-07-17

Avoids Bad ChasesST 63.1% · rebadged research

37

Avoids Bad TakesHPT 19.8% · rebadged research

89

Correct Decisions69.2% · rebadged research

80

SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103

64

Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.301 · borderline

22

Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.272 · insufficient sample

75

Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.292 · validated thin sample

21

Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.327 · insufficient sample

66

Resists FastballwOBA 0.325 · validated

77

Resists SinkerwOBA 0.357 · validated

54

Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots

Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Nick Gonzales's tools (60) outpace production (67) by -7 points. Primary finding: groundball-heavy approach with the raw power to drive the ball — leaving fly-ball damage on the table. Also flagged: Power Efficiency Gap. Most actionable fix: elevate bat path to increase average launch angle toward 12-18° range.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Launch Angle Too Low

+10.7° Current 5° → Target 16°

Elevate bat path to increase average launch angle toward 12-18° range

Solid = current angle. Dotted = recommended window.

Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

189 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

2026

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-1.2σ gap

wOBA (actual)0.361

xwOBA (deserved)0.327

Gonzales’s wOBA sits at 0.361, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.327 — a gap of 0.034, -1.2 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 390 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape

Closest profiles

Full constellation →

Player	Similarity	Agrees on	Open
Triolo, Jared PIT · R	0.77	Whiff rateIsolated power	Player · Projection
Winn, Masyn STL · R	0.72	Isolated powerOppo rate	Player · Projection
Taveras, Leody BAL · L	0.67	Bat speedSwing length	Player · Projection
Rengifo, Luis MIL · L	0.66	Hard-hit rateIsolated power	Player · Projection

Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

Module	Cards	Latest	Signal
Hitting	4	2026-07-05	Impact contact was the main driver

Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.308 xwOBA \| 9 HR	Projection
2026-05-20 @ STL0 HR \| 2 RBI / 3 Ch \| 0 E	2-4 \| 2 RBI, R
2026-04-17 vs TB0 HR \| 0 RBI / 2 Ch \| 0 E	0-4 \| K
2026-04-15 vs WSH0 HR \| 1 RBI / 1 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| K, RBI
2026-04-14 vs WSH0 HR \| 1 RBI / 3 Ch \| 0 E	0-4 \| K, RBI
2026-04-13 vs WSH0 HR \| 0 RBI / 2 Ch \| 0 E	0-0 \| BB

Age	27
Height	5' 8"
Weight	193 lb
Debut	2023-06-23

xwOBA Δ	+0.019
wOBA Δ	+0.053

Hitter Projections 20260.308 xwOBA \| 9 HR	Projection
2026-05-20 @ STL0 HR \| 2 RBI / 3 Ch \| 0 E	2-4 \| 2 RBI, R
2026-04-17 vs TB0 HR \| 0 RBI / 2 Ch \| 0 E	0-4 \| K
2026-04-15 vs WSH0 HR \| 1 RBI / 1 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| K, RBI
2026-04-14 vs WSH0 HR \| 1 RBI / 3 Ch \| 0 E	0-4 \| K, RBI
2026-04-13 vs WSH0 HR \| 0 RBI / 2 Ch \| 0 E	0-0 \| BB

Nick Gonzales

Season by season

Season percentile report

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Current traits vs projection tick

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

xwOBA snapshot line

Swing path and decision map

Field-coordinate spray profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Current snapshot

Delta / regression

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

Closest profiles

Module shelf

Available detail