Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 26 |
| Height | 5' 10" |
| Weight | 165 lb |
| Debut | 2023-08-28 |
Player profile / Boston Red Sox
Ceddanne Rafaela
CF · Bats/Throws R/R · 5' 10", 165 lb · Age 26
Club Boston Red Sox
Position CF
Roster Current MLB team
Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 571 | 70 | 134 | 15 | 19 | .246 | .274 | .390 | .664 |
| 2025 | 587 | 84 | 136 | 16 | 20 | .249 | .295 | .414 | .709 |
| 2026 | 576 | 67 | 153 | 16 | 17 | .283 | .319 | .442 | .761 |
| 4 Seasons | 1823 | 232 | 443 | 49 | 59 | .258 | .295 | .414 | .709 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
36
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.303 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.284 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.289 |
| Observed weight | 73% |
xwOBA
0.270
0.279
0.289
0.300
0.309
wOBA
0.338
0.350
0.364
0.377
0.389
ISO
0.138
0.149
0.160
0.172
0.182
K%
18.7%
19.7%
20.8%
21.9%
22.9%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.0%
36
-22 vs proj
Exit velocity86.3
32
Hard-hit%33.3%
28
-23 vs proj
xBA0.317
50
xSLG0.462
37
xwOBA0.284
29
BB%4.2%
9
Bat speed67.1
22
K%20.3%
66
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs1.2 · CF
80
Arm Strength98.2 · CF
82
Outs Above Avg16.0 · CF
100
Range Runs14.8 · CF
99
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.6 · CF
32
Bolts31.0 · CF
83
SB Success Rate64.0% · CF
18
Sprint Speed28.9 · CF
88
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 54.6% · rebadged research
9
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.9% · rebadged research
41
Correct Decisions61.5% · rebadged research
13
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline90
10
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.327 · borderline
7
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.268 · insufficient sample
84
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.307 · validated thin sample
9
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.356 · insufficient sample
7
Resists FastballwOBA 0.317 · validated
86
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.362 · validated
38
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
262 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | -0.011 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.068 |
negative regression
Regression watch
Running hot. Expect some cooling.
Rafaela’s wOBA sits at 0.364, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.284 — a gap of 0.079, -3.1 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 596 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.
Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape
Closest profiles
| Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Church, Nathan STL · L | 0.77 | Barrel rateGround-ball rate | Player · Projection |
| Duran, Ezequiel TEX · R | 0.69 | Sprint speedIsolated power | Player · Projection |
| Tovar, Ezequiel COL · R | 0.65 | Hard-hit rateSweet-spot rate | Player · Projection |
| Turner, Trea PHI · R | 0.61 | Fly-ball ratexwOBA on contact | Player · Projection |
Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 6 | 2026-08-17 | On-base pressure held the card together |
| Fielding | 21 | 2026-09-23 | 3 chances | 0 difficult plays | Run Exp -0.461 |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| Hitter Projections 20260.296 xwOBA | 16 HR | Projection |
| 2026-08-15 @ PIT0 HR | 0 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E | 1-5 | 2B, 3 K |
| 2026-05-20 @ KC0 HR | 0 RBI / 5 Ch | 0 E | 1-4 | 2B, K, R |
| 2026-04-20 vs DET0 HR | 2 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E | 1-2 | 2 RBI, R |
| 2026-04-17 vs DET0 HR | 0 RBI / 5 Ch | 0 E | 0-3 | BB, K, CS |
| 2026-04-15 @ MIN0 HR | 0 RBI / 6 Ch | 0 E | 1-3 | BB, HBP, K |