Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 25 |
| Height | 5' 10" |
| Weight | 165 lb |
| Debut | 2023-08-28 |
Player profile / Boston Red Sox
Ceddanne Rafaela
CF · Bats/Throws R/R · 5' 10", 165 lb · Age 25
Club Boston Red Sox
Position CF
Roster Active
Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 571 | 70 | 134 | 15 | 19 | .246 | .274 | .390 | .664 |
| 2025 | 587 | 84 | 136 | 16 | 20 | .249 | .295 | .414 | .709 |
| 2026 | 368 | 41 | 96 | 8 | 12 | .281 | .328 | .433 | .761 |
| 4 Seasons | 1615 | 206 | 386 | 41 | 54 | .255 | .294 | .408 | .702 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
29
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.303 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.286 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.292 |
| Observed weight | 64% |
xwOBA
0.270
0.280
0.292
0.304
0.315
wOBA
0.348
0.363
0.380
0.396
0.411
ISO
0.128
0.141
0.155
0.169
0.182
K%
18.3%
19.5%
20.8%
22.1%
23.2%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.6%
27
-27 vs proj
Exit velocity86.1
27
Hard-hit%33.7%
27
-20 vs proj
xBA0.311
37
xSLG0.449
28
xwOBA0.286
28
BB%5.4%
16
Bat speed67.4
23
K%20.0%
65
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs1.0 · CF
81
Arm Strength97.5 · CF
86
Outs Above Avg12.0 · CF
99
Range Runs11.0 · CF
99
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.0 · CF
70
Bolts19.0 · CF
80
SB Success Rate64.7% · CF
18
Sprint Speed29.1 · CF
92
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 59.2% · rebadged research
21
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.5% · rebadged research
46
Correct Decisions62.7% · rebadged research
20
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline95
21
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.290 · borderline
42
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.276 · insufficient sample
61
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.303 · validated thin sample
9
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.361 · insufficient sample
8
Resists FastballwOBA 0.336 · validated
57
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.370 · validated
23
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
180 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | -0.009 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.084 |
negative regression
Regression watch
Running hot. Expect some cooling.
Rafaela’s wOBA sits at 0.380, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.286 — a gap of 0.094, -3.4 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 390 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.
Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape
Closest profiles
| Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Duran, Ezequiel TEX · R | 0.72 | Pull rateSprint speed | Player · Projection |
| Church, Nathan STL · L | 0.68 | xwOBA on contactWalk rate | Player · Projection |
| Turner, Trea PHI · R | 0.62 | Walk rateGround-ball rate | Player · Projection |
| Dubón, Mauricio ATL · R | 0.61 | Barrel rateAvg exit velocity | Player · Projection |
Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 3 | 2026-04-26 | Impact contact was the main driver |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| Hitter Projections 20260.296 xwOBA | 16 HR | Projection |
| 2026-05-20 @ KC0 HR | 0 RBI / 5 Ch | 0 E | 1-4 | 2B, K, R |
| 2026-04-20 vs DET0 HR | 2 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E | 1-2 | 2 RBI, R |
| 2026-04-17 vs DET0 HR | 0 RBI / 5 Ch | 0 E | 0-3 | BB, K, CS |
| 2026-04-15 @ MIN0 HR | 0 RBI / 6 Ch | 0 E | 1-3 | BB, HBP, K |
| 2026-04-13 @ MIN0 HR | 0 RBI / 3 Ch | 0 E | 1-4 |