Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / COL · 2026
Tovar, Ezequiel
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team COL
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 25
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.304 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.309 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.306 |
| Observed weight | 52% |
xwOBA
0.279
0.292
0.306
0.320
0.333
wOBA
0.277
0.296
0.316
0.336
0.355
ISO
0.114
0.131
0.150
0.169
0.185
K%
22.8%
24.2%
25.8%
27.3%
28.7%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%6.4%
23
Barrel%6.4%
68
Bat speed69.2
43
Exit velocity87.3
36
Hard-hit%37.8%
41
K%25.5%
32
xBA0.336
63
xSLG0.566
66
xwOBA0.309
50
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength88.0 · SS
70
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · SS
27
Range Runs-0.2 · SS
39
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.9 · SS
71
Sprint Speed27.9 · SS
67
SB Success Rate100.0% · SS
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 52.7% · rebadged research
6
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 16.8% · rebadged research
96
Correct Decisions64.1% · rebadged research
31
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline97
30
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.270 · borderline
82
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.294 · insufficient sample
13
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.275 · validated thin sample
50
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.338 · insufficient sample
34
Resists FastballwOBA 0.279 · validated
100
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.364 · validated
31
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
149 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.009 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.016 |
| Sample | 235 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 479 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 14 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.299 | 0.282 to 0.358 | +/- 0.038 |
| ISO | 0.161 | 0.116 to 0.249 | +/- 0.067 |
| Barrel% | 5.9% | 4.2% to 8.5% | +/- 2.1% |
| Hard-Hit% | 40.2% | 34.9% to 46.8% | +/- 6.0% |
| K% | 25.2% | 22.3% to 31.5% | +/- 4.6% |
| BB% | 4.6% | 2.9% to 7.8% | +/- 2.5% |
| BABIP | 0.325 | 0.290 to 0.385 | +/- 0.047 |
vs LHP
520 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.277 |
| K% | 23.5% |
| BB% | 5.2% |
| Barrel | 6.4% |
vs RHP
1310 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.252 |
| K% | 22.2% |
| BB% | 3.3% |
| Barrel | 5.0% |