Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / COL · 2026
Tovar, Ezequiel
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team COL
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 25
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
33
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.304 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.275 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.286 |
| Observed weight | 62% |
xwOBA
0.262
0.274
0.286
0.298
0.310
wOBA
0.249
0.264
0.280
0.296
0.310
ISO
0.122
0.136
0.151
0.167
0.180
K%
23.0%
24.2%
25.6%
26.9%
28.1%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.3%
53
Exit velocity85.9
25
Hard-hit%32.7%
24
-30 vs proj
xBA0.304
30
xSLG0.505
48
xwOBA0.275
20
-23 vs proj
BB%5.6%
18
Bat speed69.5
48
K%25.3%
35
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.1 · SS
58
Arm Strength90.2 · SS
78
Outs Above Avg0.0 · SS
43
Range Runs0.4 · SS
52
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.7 · SS
64
Sprint Speed27.9 · SS
65
SB Success Rate100.0% · SS
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 52.3% · rebadged research
6
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 17.6% · rebadged research
94
Correct Decisions63.9% · rebadged research
28
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline96
25
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.265 · borderline
90
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.296 · insufficient sample
13
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.274 · validated thin sample
70
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.332 · insufficient sample
48
Resists FastballwOBA 0.267 · validated
100
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.364 · validated
37
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
171 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.024 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.020 |
| Sample | 360 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 479 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 14 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.299 | 0.282 to 0.358 | +/- 0.038 |
| ISO | 0.161 | 0.116 to 0.249 | +/- 0.067 |
| Barrel% | 5.9% | 4.2% to 8.5% | +/- 2.1% |
| Hard-Hit% | 40.2% | 34.9% to 46.8% | +/- 6.0% |
| K% | 25.2% | 22.3% to 31.5% | +/- 4.6% |
| BB% | 4.6% | 2.9% to 7.8% | +/- 2.5% |
| BABIP | 0.325 | 0.290 to 0.385 | +/- 0.047 |
vs LHP
520 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.277 |
| K% | 23.5% |
| BB% | 5.2% |
| Barrel | 6.4% |
vs RHP
1310 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.252 |
| K% | 22.2% |
| BB% | 3.3% |
| Barrel | 5.0% |