Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / TEX · 2026
Duran, Ezequiel
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team TEX
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 27
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
51
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.283 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.307 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.298 |
| Observed weight | 61% |
xwOBA
0.272
0.284
0.298
0.311
0.323
wOBA
0.322
0.338
0.356
0.373
0.389
ISO
0.136
0.149
0.165
0.180
0.194
K%
19.6%
21.1%
22.7%
24.3%
25.8%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.0%
49
Exit velocity87.4
41
Hard-hit%37.6%
45
xBA0.343
72
xSLG0.505
48
xwOBA0.307
50
+29 vs proj
BB%7.1%
31
+16 vs proj
Bat speed69.8
51
K%22.7%
47
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.0 · SS
28
Arm Strength97.7 · SS
99
Outs Above Avg1.0 · SS
68
Range Runs6.6 · SS
96
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.9 · SS
68
Bolts12.0 · SS
72
SB Success Rate87.5% · SS
71
Sprint Speed29.0 · SS
90
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 60.1% · rebadged research
25
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.4% · rebadged research
28
Correct Decisions62.3% · rebadged research
17
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline94
18
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.356 · borderline
0
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.278 · insufficient sample
50
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.315 · validated thin sample
3
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.305 · insufficient sample
97
Resists FastballwOBA 0.302 · validated
96
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.396 · validated
4
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
158 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.030 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.078 |
| Sample | 339 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 350 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 7 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.277 | 0.241 to 0.324 | +/- 0.042 |
| ISO | 0.128 | 0.082 to 0.206 | +/- 0.062 |
| Barrel% | 4.1% | 1.6% to 6.5% | +/- 2.4% |
| Hard-Hit% | 37.3% | 32.6% to 45.6% | +/- 6.5% |
| K% | 24.2% | 19.6% to 32.4% | +/- 6.4% |
| BB% | 5.3% | 3.4% to 8.2% | +/- 2.4% |
| BABIP | 0.314 | 0.253 to 0.373 | +/- 0.060 |
vs LHP
395 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.207 |
| K% | 19.5% |
| BB% | 3.9% |
| Barrel | 2.9% |
vs RHP
856 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.210 |
| K% | 17.8% |
| BB% | 3.6% |
| Barrel | 2.7% |