Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / TEX · 2026
Duran, Ezequiel
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team TEX
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 27
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
51
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.283 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.300 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.296 |
| Observed weight | 73% |
xwOBA
0.275
0.285
0.296
0.307
0.316
wOBA
0.319
0.331
0.344
0.357
0.369
ISO
0.141
0.151
0.163
0.175
0.185
K%
20.9%
22.0%
23.3%
24.5%
25.6%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.5%
45
Exit velocity87.8
49
Hard-hit%38.6%
52
xBA0.329
63
xSLG0.502
52
xwOBA0.300
48
+24 vs proj
BB%7.5%
37
+21 vs proj
Bat speed69.6
49
K%23.5%
47
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.3 · SS
81
Arm Strength97.7 · SS
98
Outs Above Avg0.0 · SS
47
Range Runs12.5 · SS
98
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.7 · SS
58
Bolts15.0 · SS
70
SB Success Rate71.4% · SS
28
Sprint Speed28.9 · SS
88
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 61.8% · rebadged research
31
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.0% · rebadged research
50
Correct Decisions65.3% · rebadged research
42
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.352 · borderline
0
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline97
33
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.281 · insufficient sample
43
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.314 · validated thin sample
5
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.288 · insufficient sample
98
Resists FastballwOBA 0.330 · validated
67
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.373 · validated
20
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
269 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.023 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.067 |
| Sample | 604 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 350 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 7 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.277 | 0.241 to 0.324 | +/- 0.042 |
| ISO | 0.128 | 0.082 to 0.206 | +/- 0.062 |
| Barrel% | 4.1% | 1.6% to 6.5% | +/- 2.4% |
| Hard-Hit% | 37.3% | 32.6% to 45.6% | +/- 6.5% |
| K% | 24.2% | 19.6% to 32.4% | +/- 6.4% |
| BB% | 5.3% | 3.4% to 8.2% | +/- 2.4% |
| BABIP | 0.314 | 0.252 to 0.373 | +/- 0.060 |
vs LHP
395 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.207 |
| K% | 19.6% |
| BB% | 3.9% |
| Barrel | 2.9% |
vs RHP
856 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.210 |
| K% | 17.8% |
| BB% | 3.6% |
| Barrel | 2.7% |