Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / STL · 2026
Church, Nathan
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team STL
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 26
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
25
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.272 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.285 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.281 |
| Observed weight | 69% |
xwOBA
0.255
0.267
0.281
0.295
0.307
wOBA
0.287
0.300
0.314
0.328
0.341
ISO
0.085
0.099
0.115
0.131
0.145
K%
14.0%
15.7%
17.6%
19.5%
21.2%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.0%
35
Exit velocity83.9
12
Hard-hit%30.0%
17
-15 vs proj
xBA0.299
27
xSLG0.437
27
xwOBA0.285
30
BB%5.6%
19
-21 vs proj
Bat speed66.8
20
K%16.5%
84
+24 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.6 · CF
38
Arm Strength101.0 · CF
95
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · CF
25
Range Runs1.5 · CF
66
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.1 · CF
65
SB Success Rate69.2% · CF
22
Sprint Speed28.5 · CF
80
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 54.5% · rebadged research
9
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.0% · rebadged research
32
Correct Decisions61.0% · rebadged research
10
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline88
8
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.294 · borderline
37
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.276 · insufficient sample
63
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.298 · validated thin sample
17
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.361 · insufficient sample
5
Resists FastballwOBA 0.308 · validated
93
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.351 · validated
69
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
239 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.003 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.026 |
| Sample | 480 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 236 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 6 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.288 | 0.182 to 0.301 | +/- 0.060 |
| ISO | 0.137 | 0.036 to 0.209 | +/- 0.086 |
| Barrel% | 3.5% | 0.2% to 5.3% | +/- 2.6% |
| Hard-Hit% | 34.4% | 19.6% to 44.5% | +/- 12.5% |
| K% | 21.3% | 12.9% to 33.9% | +/- 10.5% |
| BB% | 7.7% | 1.8% to 10.8% | +/- 4.5% |
| BABIP | 0.278 | 0.176 to 0.337 | +/- 0.080 |
vs LHP
17 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.054 |
| K% | 6.6% |
| BB% | 1.8% |
| Barrel | 0.3% |
vs RHP
67 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.058 |
| K% | 5.9% |
| BB% | 2.4% |
| Barrel | 0.4% |