Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / SF · 2026

Devers, Rafael

Middle-order power profile with real damage

Primary
0.364 xwOBA
Range
0.307 to 0.398
Live Δ
yes
Team SF Archetype Impact slugger Age 30 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
82
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
70
Defense2 metrics
33
Speed3 metrics
19
Plate skills10 metrics
54
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
xwOBA preseason0.354
xwOBA current pace0.327
xwOBA rolling p500.337
Observed weight65%
xwOBA
0.312 0.323 0.337 0.350 0.362
wOBA
0.322 0.336 0.352 0.367 0.382
ISO
0.194 0.210 0.227 0.245 0.261
K%
23.9% 25.1% 26.4% 27.7% 28.9%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.7%
84
Exit velocity92.2
93
Hard-hit%50.8%
93
xBA0.335
64
xSLG0.662
89
xwOBA0.327
70 -20 vs proj
BB%9.2%
56 -29 vs proj
Bat speed70.4
61
K%27.2%
25 -15 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · 1B
28
Range Runs-0.9 · 1B
38
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.8 · 1B
21
Bolts1.0 · 1B
15
Sprint Speed26.1 · 1B
20
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-07-16
Avoids Bad ChasesST 64.9% · rebadged research
46
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.0% · rebadged research
53
Correct Decisions67.6% · rebadged research
64
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline100
47
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.264 · borderline
91
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.280 · insufficient sample
45
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.261 · validated thin sample
92
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.389 · insufficient sample
1
Resists FastballwOBA 0.325 · validated
76
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.368 · validated
26
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Devers, Rafael · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.308 0.327 2026-07-05: 0.3192026-07-06: 0.3182026-07-07: 0.3242026-07-08: 0.3272026-07-09: 0.3272026-07-10: 0.3262026-07-11: 0.3262026-07-12: 0.3272026-07-13: 0.3262026-07-14: 0.3272026-07-15: 0.3272026-07-16: 0.327 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

181 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Devers, Rafael · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 16% of plotted batted ballsPull 16%Center field third: 69% of plotted batted ballsCenter 69%Right field third: 15% of plotted batted ballsOppo 15% LF 339 CF 399 RF 309 2026-03-20 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 95.4 / LA 17.02026-03-20 · field out · FF · popup · EV 90.6 / LA 70.02026-03-21 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 107.8 / LA 19.02026-03-21 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 85.8 / LA 27.02026-03-21 · single · FC · popup · EV 64.9 / LA 55.02026-03-21 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 103.5 / LA 21.02026-03-25 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 84.4 / LA 31.02026-03-25 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 107.4 / LA 15.02026-03-25 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 98.2 / LA -17.02026-03-25 · single · SI · fly_ball · EV 74.0 / LA 40.02026-03-27 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 84.0 / LA -11.02026-03-28 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 97.8 / LA -6.02026-03-28 · double · SL · line_drive · EV 101.7 / LA 21.02026-03-28 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 105.2 / LA 10.02026-03-30 · field out · SI · popup · EV 71.3 / LA 72.02026-03-30 · grounded into double play · CH · ground_ball · EV 97.9 / LA -15.02026-03-31 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 103.6 / LA 20.02026-03-31 · field out · FF · popup · EV 77.6 / LA 68.02026-03-31 · single · FF · fly_ball · EV 71.2 / LA 42.02026-03-31 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 70.0 / LA 3.02026-03-31 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 52.8 / LA -37.02026-04-01 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 55.1 / LA -59.02026-04-02 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 105.5 / LA 29.02026-04-02 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 73.1 / LA -18.02026-04-02 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 94.9 / LA 7.02026-04-02 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 86.2 / LA -43.02026-04-03 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 97.9 / LA 8.02026-04-04 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 102.3 / LA 17.02026-04-04 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 87.1 / LA 42.02026-04-04 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 96.4 / LA 34.02026-04-05 · single · FC · fly_ball · EV 75.6 / LA 32.02026-04-05 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 106.3 / LA 1.02026-04-06 · field out · SL · popup · EV 64.4 / LA 52.02026-04-06 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 103.9 / LA -6.02026-04-06 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 103.6 / LA -10.02026-04-07 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 102.3 / LA 6.02026-04-07 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 92.6 / LA 26.02026-04-07 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 99.6 / LA 43.02026-04-08 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 93.9 / LA 6.02026-04-08 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 108.1 / LA 35.02026-04-08 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 100.1 / LA 9.02026-04-10 · field out · KC · ground_ball · EV 92.7 / LA -13.02026-04-10 · field out · KC · ground_ball · EV 82.3 / LA -51.02026-04-10 · single · KC · fly_ball · EV 73.6 / LA 30.02026-04-10 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 94.7 / LA 30.02026-04-10 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 108.1 / LA 18.02026-04-11 · force out · CH · ground_ball · EV 95.5 / LA 7.02026-04-11 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 101.2 / LA 55.02026-04-11 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 87.6 / LA 10.02026-04-12 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 107.1 / LA 19.02026-04-14 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 89.1 / LA 44.02026-04-14 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 94.6 / LA 42.02026-04-15 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 93.4 / LA -23.02026-04-15 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 100.0 / LA 9.02026-04-15 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 101.6 / LA 16.02026-04-16 · field out · SL · ground_ball2026-04-16 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 78.1 / LA 55.02026-04-17 · double · SI · fly_ball · EV 99.6 / LA 26.02026-04-17 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 101.8 / LA 18.02026-04-18 · force out · SV · ground_ball · EV 68.8 / LA -38.02026-04-18 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 80.1 / LA 49.02026-04-18 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 96.9 / LA 18.02026-04-18 · grounded into double play · FF · ground_ball · EV 74.1 / LA -24.02026-04-18 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 100.8 / LA -15.02026-04-19 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 89.9 / LA 16.02026-04-19 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 99.7 / LA 42.02026-04-19 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 78.1 / LA 16.02026-04-21 · single · FS · line_drive · EV 98.1 / LA 10.02026-04-21 · field out · FS · popup · EV 77.6 / LA 58.02026-04-22 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 110.3 / LA 10.02026-04-22 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 85.8 / LA -1.02026-04-22 · double · FS · ground_ball · EV 103.7 / LA 3.02026-04-22 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 89.8 / LA 50.02026-04-24 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 84.1 / LA -12.02026-04-24 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 88.5 / LA 7.02026-04-25 · force out · FF · ground_ball · EV 76.7 / LA -38.02026-04-25 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 85.6 / LA 58.02026-04-25 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 71.4 / LA -33.02026-04-26 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 59.8 / LA -57.02026-04-26 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 80.9 / LA -25.02026-04-26 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 108.2 / LA 15.02026-04-28 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 94.9 / LA 0.02026-04-28 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 86.5 / LA -58.02026-04-30 · sac fly · SL · fly_ball · EV 82.9 / LA 36.02026-04-30 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 85.6 / LA 0.02026-04-30 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 73.8 / LA -21.02026-04-30 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 94.8 / LA 29.02026-04-30 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 96.9 / LA -10.02026-05-01 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 102.4 / LA 48.02026-05-01 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 106.6 / LA 3.02026-05-02 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 102.6 / LA 24.02026-05-02 · field out · SL · popup · EV 78.4 / LA 85.02026-05-02 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 58.1 / LA 3.02026-05-02 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 99.0 / LA 38.02026-05-03 · double · SI · ground_ball · EV 59.1 / LA 20.02026-05-04 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 96.5 / LA -3.02026-05-04 · field out · FC · popup · EV 65.4 / LA 71.02026-05-04 · sac fly · FC · fly_ball · EV 87.3 / LA 45.02026-05-05 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 101.3 / LA -23.02026-05-05 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 106.3 / LA -12.02026-05-05 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 96.5 / LA -25.02026-05-06 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 91.9 / LA -17.02026-05-06 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 100.5 / LA 39.02026-05-08 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 102.5 / LA 28.02026-05-08 · single · FS · ground_ball · EV 109.0 / LA 3.02026-05-09 · grounded into double play · FF · ground_ball · EV 97.7 / LA 2.02026-05-10 · double · SL · fly_ball · EV 101.2 / LA 37.02026-05-10 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 101.0 / LA 22.02026-05-10 · field out · FF · popup · EV 88.8 / LA 67.02026-05-10 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 75.6 / LA -17.02026-05-11 · home run · FS · fly_ball · EV 102.7 / LA 26.02026-05-11 · field out · FO · fly_ball · EV 75.0 / LA 44.02026-05-11 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 85.0 / LA 19.02026-05-12 · single · FS · ground_ball · EV 93.1 / LA -12.02026-05-13 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 108.5 / LA -4.02026-05-13 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 97.8 / LA 24.02026-05-14 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 54.9 / LA -83.02026-05-14 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 78.6 / LA 30.02026-05-14 · single · SL · fly_ball · EV 71.0 / LA 46.02026-05-15 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 77.3 / LA 6.02026-05-15 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 94.6 / LA 25.02026-05-16 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 89.1 / LA -10.02026-05-16 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 107.7 / LA 9.02026-05-17 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 97.9 / LA 41.02026-05-17 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 103.1 / LA -28.02026-05-17 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 84.9 / LA -4.02026-05-17 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 108.2 / LA 11.02026-05-17 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 50.6 / LA -85.02026-05-18 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 106.3 / LA 0.02026-05-18 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 106.4 / LA 8.02026-05-18 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 94.3 / LA -23.02026-05-19 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 94.4 / LA 30.02026-05-19 · home run · FC · fly_ball · EV 111.2 / LA 27.02026-05-19 · double · FF · ground_ball · EV 96.6 / LA 0.02026-05-20 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 97.1 / LA -1.02026-05-20 · double · SL · line_drive · EV 112.4 / LA 20.02026-05-20 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 87.7 / LA 38.02026-05-20 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 101.5 / LA 25.02026-05-22 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 89.0 / LA -21.02026-05-23 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 105.5 / LA 4.02026-05-23 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 95.8 / LA 25.02026-05-23 · field out · FF · popup · EV 94.4 / LA 81.02026-05-23 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 93.6 / LA 31.02026-05-24 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 102.6 / LA 32.02026-05-24 · double · ST · fly_ball · EV 104.5 / LA 28.02026-05-24 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 78.0 / LA -49.02026-05-25 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 105.2 / LA 50.02026-05-25 · double · CH · fly_ball · EV 103.5 / LA 32.02026-05-25 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 107.6 / LA -14.02026-05-26 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 104.9 / LA 18.02026-05-26 · double play · FC · line_drive · EV 100.9 / LA 10.02026-05-26 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 98.7 / LA 40.02026-05-27 · field out · FF · popup · EV 88.1 / LA 65.02026-05-27 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 78.6 / LA 4.02026-05-31 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 107.0 / LA 4.02026-05-31 · double · FC · ground_ball · EV 99.6 / LA -2.02026-05-31 · double · FS · line_drive · EV 97.1 / LA 12.02026-05-31 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 78.2 / LA 9.02026-05-31 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 87.4 / LA 56.02026-06-04 · double · FC · fly_ball · EV 97.2 / LA 28.02026-06-04 · force out · FF · ground_ball · EV 82.9 / LA -10.02026-06-04 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 94.2 / LA 65.02026-06-04 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 107.0 / LA 7.02026-06-04 · field out · FF · popup · EV 88.0 / LA 73.02026-06-05 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 77.0 / LA -33.02026-06-05 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 104.9 / LA 1.02026-06-05 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 91.9 / LA 20.02026-06-20 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 96.7 / LA 29.02026-06-20 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 62.3 / LA -33.02026-06-20 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 74.9 / LA -33.02026-06-24 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 106.1 / LA 30.02026-06-24 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 94.2 / LA 25.02026-06-26 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 92.6 / LA -17.02026-06-26 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 94.7 / LA -16.02026-06-26 · field out · SI · popup · EV 96.2 / LA 67.02026-06-26 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 106.6 / LA 24.02026-06-30 · home run · FC · fly_ball · EV 111.3 / LA 24.02026-06-30 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 90.8 / LA 41.02026-07-01 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 97.9 / LA 35.02026-07-01 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 80.0 / LA -6.02026-07-01 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 88.3 / LA -29.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics BAT SPEED DISTRIBUTION Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Bat Speed Devers, Rafael · aggregate bat speed marker 60 mph 85 mph Avg bat speed 71.2 mph Hard swing rate 14% Whiff / swing 28% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Devers, Rafael · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 49%49%Chase: 29%29%Whiff: 27%27%Zone contact: 77%77%Contact: 73%73%Hard hit: 51%51% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.329 vs 0.269 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
3
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ-0.037
wOBA Δ-0.012
Sample415 PA

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances636----
Home Runs29----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3640.307 to 0.398+/- 0.046
ISO0.2360.149 to 0.314+/- 0.082
Barrel%8.9%5.6% to 10.5%+/- 2.4%
Hard-Hit%54.5%45.5% to 61.6%+/- 8.0%
K%24.4%19.6% to 29.3%+/- 4.9%
BB%12.1%9.9% to 15.4%+/- 2.7%
BABIP0.3090.260 to 0.353+/- 0.047
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

1621 career PA

xwOBA0.269
K%23.1%
BB%7.6%
Barrel5.7%
vs RHP

3569 career PA

xwOBA0.329
K%20.0%
BB%12.3%
Barrel7.9%