Public Model Surface

Fangorn Model - 2026-04-05

Random Forest engine built to identify nonlinear home run market gaps.

Fangorn is the sharp decision layer within the Mithrandir model system.

View Core Board Parlay Overlay Standard Confidence View Open Artifacts

Fangorn Snapshot

Slate 2026-04-05

Core 4

Select 2

Conviction 0

Parlay Overlay 1

← 2026-04-06 2026-04-04 →

Lane Health 2026-06-03

Palantir 3465 props Brier 0.123 ECE 0.023 14d stable

Fangorn 3465 props Brier 0.123 ECE 0.012 14d stable

Valinor 1176 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.013 14d error rising

Daily Focus

Fangorn Top Signals Today

The cleanest at-a-glance Fangorn reads for today’s slate, separated by safest consensus, upside, and parlay utility.

Best Consensus Play

No qualifying play

No High Agreement Fangorn play qualified today. | --

Mixed Read Lean

This slot does not have a qualifying Fangorn play on the current slate.

Best Upside Play

No qualifying play

No Breakout Divergence Fangorn play qualified today. | --

Mixed Read Lean

This slot does not have a qualifying Fangorn play on the current slate.

Best Parlay Piece

Roman Anthony

BOS vs SD | +705

Mixed Read Lean

Calibrated Prob 26.0%

Market Gap 13.6%

Today's Fangorn Board: 0 High Agreement 0 Upside Signals 6 Mixed Reads 0 Caution Flags

Daily Fangorn Boards

Home Run Picks

Shareable daily HR picks from the Random Forest engine, organized by how the internal strategy layer actually uses them.

Agreement Overlay

How to read the model tags

These tags show how the broader HR model stack reads each Fangorn pick idea. Consensus tags are steadier, upside tags are sharper, and caution tags mean the models are split.

Consensus Support Supported Mixed Read Upside Signal Caution

Research Compare Mode

Confidence display comparison

Hybrid confidence is the current blended view. Anchored confidence keeps RF as the decision engine while adjusting toward binary-event truth from the logistic classifier.

Core

Top 10 singles by calibrated Fangorn probability.

Grouped Ideas 4 Market Rows 10 Artifact

Michael Busch

CHC vs CLE | vs Slade Cecconi

1+ HR Over Standard Play 0.75 Unit Mixed Read Parlay Candidate

1 line option 1 book Batting 3

Calibrated Prob 26.0%

Market Gap 7.4%

Confidence Strong Zone

Hybrid Confidence 25.6% Adjusted from 26.0% model read

Playable

Anchored Confidence 19.5% RF-safe adjusted toward 0.1% binary-event truth

Risky

Confidence Disagreement Moderate Disagreement 6.1% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Moderate Disagreement Reduced Exposure

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Moderate Damage Neutral Trust

Strong Zone look against Slade Cecconi, with batting 3 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

FanDuel Best +440 26.0% 7.4% Strong Zone

Roman Anthony

BOS vs SD | vs Walker Buehler

1+ HR Over Standard Play 0.75 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 3 books Batting 2

Calibrated Prob 26.0%

Market Gap 13.6%

Confidence Strong Zone

Hybrid Confidence 25.2% Adjusted from 26.0% model read

Playable

Anchored Confidence 19.5% RF-safe adjusted toward 0.0% binary-event truth

Risky

Confidence Disagreement Moderate Disagreement 5.7% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Moderate Disagreement Reduced Exposure

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Moderate Damage Neutral Trust

Strong Zone look against Walker Buehler, with batting 2 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

DraftKings Best +705 26.0% 13.6% Strong Zone

BetMGM +700 26.0% 13.5% Strong Zone

FanDuel +700 26.0% 13.5% Strong Zone

Ben Rice

NYY vs MIA | vs Chris Paddack

1+ HR Over Standard Play 0.75 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 3 books Batting 6

Calibrated Prob 19.6%

Market Gap 3.4%

Confidence Watch Zone

Hybrid Confidence 20.2% Adjusted from 19.6% model read

Playable

Anchored Confidence 14.7% RF-safe adjusted toward 0.1% binary-event truth

Risky

Confidence Disagreement Moderate Disagreement 5.5% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Moderate Disagreement Reduced Exposure

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Moderate Damage Downgraded Trust

Watch Zone look against Chris Paddack, with batting 6 and a hitter-friendly run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

FanDuel Best +520 19.6% 3.4% Watch Zone

BetMGM +515 19.6% 3.3% Watch Zone

DraftKings +515 19.6% 3.3% Watch Zone

Jonathan Aranda

TB vs MIN | vs Simeon Woods Richardson

1+ HR Over Caution Play 0.25 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 3 books Batting 3

Calibrated Prob 17.9%

Market Gap 4.7%

Confidence Watch Zone

Hybrid Confidence 18.4% Adjusted from 17.9% model read

Risky

Anchored Confidence 13.4% RF-safe adjusted toward 0.0% binary-event truth

Risky

Confidence Disagreement Moderate Disagreement 4.9% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Moderate Disagreement Reduced Exposure

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Moderate Damage Neutral Trust

Watch Zone look against Simeon Woods Richardson, with batting 3 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

DraftKings Best +655 17.9% 4.7% Watch Zone

FanDuel +655 17.9% 4.7% Watch Zone

BetMGM +650 17.9% 4.6% Watch Zone

Select

Best edge-driven HR looks from the Fangorn stack.

Grouped Ideas 2 Market Rows 5 Artifact

Roman Anthony

BOS vs SD | vs Walker Buehler

1+ HR Over Standard Play 0.75 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 3 books Batting 2

Calibrated Prob 26.0%

Market Gap 13.6%

Confidence Strong Zone

Hybrid Confidence 25.2% Adjusted from 26.0% model read

Playable

Anchored Confidence 19.5% RF-safe adjusted toward 0.0% binary-event truth

Risky

Confidence Disagreement Moderate Disagreement 5.7% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Moderate Disagreement Reduced Exposure

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Moderate Damage Neutral Trust

Strong Zone look against Walker Buehler, with batting 2 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

DraftKings Best +705 26.0% 13.6% Strong Zone

BetMGM +700 26.0% 13.5% Strong Zone

FanDuel +700 26.0% 13.5% Strong Zone

Geraldo Perdomo

AZ vs ATL | vs Martín Pérez

1+ HR Over Caution Play 0.25 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 2 books Batting 3

Calibrated Prob 17.9%

Market Gap 8.8%

Confidence Watch Zone

Hybrid Confidence 18.1% Adjusted from 17.9% model read

Risky

Anchored Confidence 13.4% RF-safe adjusted toward 0.0% binary-event truth

Risky

Confidence Disagreement Moderate Disagreement 4.6% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Moderate Disagreement Reduced Exposure

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Moderate Damage Neutral Trust

Watch Zone look against Martín Pérez, with batting 3 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

DraftKings Best +995 17.9% 8.8% Watch Zone

BetMGM +975 17.9% 8.6% Watch Zone

Conviction

Highest-conviction filtered HR singles from the current Fangorn layer.

Grouped Ideas 0 Artifact

No conviction Fangorn picks were saved for this slate.

Overlay

Parlay Overlay

Best distinct two-leg Fangorn HR parlay concepts from the saved overlay artifact.

Artifact

Parlay 1

Neutral

Michael Busch CHC vs CLE | +440 26.0% | Strong Zone

Roman Anthony BOS vs SD | +700 26.0% | Strong Zone

Joint Prob 6.7%

Joint Gap 4.4%

Structure Distinct Games