{
  "date": "2026-04-05",
  "generated_at": "2026-04-05T09:28:49.026812",
  "artifact_type": "hr_select_board",
  "source_artifact_path": "outputs\\betting\\home_run_edges\\2026-04-05\\home_run_edges_2026-04-05.json",
  "summary": {
    "board_size": 5,
    "selection_logic": "top_5_by_calibrated_rf_safe_edge"
  },
  "rows": [
    {
      "board_type": "hr_select_board",
      "rank": 1,
      "hitter_name": "Roman Anthony",
      "hitter_id": 701350,
      "team_abbr": "BOS",
      "opponent_abbr": "SD",
      "pitcher_name": "Walker Buehler",
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "over_odds": 705,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2144,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.193,
      "projected_home_runs_palantir": 8.87,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597,
      "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2262,
      "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2517,
      "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1949,
      "hr_prob_refined": 0.0844,
      "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1732,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2426,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2135,
      "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch",
      "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus",
      "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT",
      "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support",
      "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3,
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT",
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift",
      "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0841,
      "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE",
      "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure",
      "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift",
      "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.",
      "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE",
      "damage_label": "Moderate Damage",
      "damage_score": 1,
      "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5",
      "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.",
      "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY",
      "suppression_label": "Clear Runway",
      "suppression_score": 8,
      "suppression_reason_count": 1,
      "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.",
      "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST",
      "trust_label": "Neutral Trust",
      "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.",
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1355,
      "hr_edge_palantir": 0.049,
      "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1239,
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0707,
      "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%",
      "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone",
      "edge_over": 0.0688,
      "play_tier": "Play",
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "confirmed_lineup_flag": false,
      "environment_summary": "neutral"
    },
    {
      "board_type": "hr_select_board",
      "rank": 2,
      "hitter_name": "Roman Anthony",
      "hitter_id": 701350,
      "team_abbr": "BOS",
      "opponent_abbr": "SD",
      "pitcher_name": "Walker Buehler",
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "over_odds": 700,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2144,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.193,
      "projected_home_runs_palantir": 8.87,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597,
      "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2262,
      "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2517,
      "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1949,
      "hr_prob_refined": 0.0844,
      "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1732,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2426,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2135,
      "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch",
      "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus",
      "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT",
      "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support",
      "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3,
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT",
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift",
      "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0841,
      "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE",
      "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure",
      "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift",
      "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.",
      "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE",
      "damage_label": "Moderate Damage",
      "damage_score": 1,
      "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5",
      "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.",
      "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY",
      "suppression_label": "Clear Runway",
      "suppression_score": 8,
      "suppression_reason_count": 1,
      "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.",
      "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST",
      "trust_label": "Neutral Trust",
      "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.",
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1347,
      "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0482,
      "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1247,
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0699,
      "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%",
      "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone",
      "edge_over": 0.068,
      "play_tier": "Play",
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "confirmed_lineup_flag": false,
      "environment_summary": "neutral"
    },
    {
      "board_type": "hr_select_board",
      "rank": 3,
      "hitter_name": "Roman Anthony",
      "hitter_id": 701350,
      "team_abbr": "BOS",
      "opponent_abbr": "SD",
      "pitcher_name": "Walker Buehler",
      "sportsbook": "BetMGM",
      "over_odds": 700,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2144,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.193,
      "projected_home_runs_palantir": 8.87,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597,
      "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2262,
      "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2517,
      "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1949,
      "hr_prob_refined": 0.0844,
      "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1732,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2426,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2135,
      "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch",
      "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus",
      "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT",
      "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support",
      "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3,
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT",
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift",
      "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0841,
      "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE",
      "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure",
      "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift",
      "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.",
      "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE",
      "damage_label": "Moderate Damage",
      "damage_score": 1,
      "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5",
      "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.",
      "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY",
      "suppression_label": "Clear Runway",
      "suppression_score": 8,
      "suppression_reason_count": 1,
      "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.",
      "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST",
      "trust_label": "Neutral Trust",
      "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.",
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1347,
      "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0482,
      "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1247,
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0699,
      "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%",
      "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone",
      "edge_over": 0.068,
      "play_tier": "Play",
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "confirmed_lineup_flag": false,
      "environment_summary": "neutral"
    },
    {
      "board_type": "hr_select_board",
      "rank": 4,
      "hitter_name": "Geraldo Perdomo",
      "hitter_id": 672695,
      "team_abbr": "AZ",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATL",
      "pitcher_name": "Mart\u00edn P\u00e9rez",
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "over_odds": 995,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1648,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1519,
      "projected_home_runs_palantir": 7.42,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791,
      "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1847,
      "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1808,
      "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1344,
      "hr_prob_refined": 0.064,
      "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1052,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.206,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1789,
      "palantir_confidence_label": "Low",
      "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim",
      "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT",
      "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support",
      "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3,
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT",
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift",
      "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0637,
      "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE",
      "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure",
      "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift",
      "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.",
      "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE",
      "damage_label": "Moderate Damage",
      "damage_score": 1,
      "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5",
      "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.",
      "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY",
      "suppression_label": "Clear Runway",
      "suppression_score": 8,
      "suppression_reason_count": 1,
      "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.",
      "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST",
      "trust_label": "Neutral Trust",
      "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.",
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0878,
      "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0139,
      "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.091,
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0431,
      "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%",
      "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone",
      "edge_over": 0.0606,
      "play_tier": "Play",
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "confirmed_lineup_flag": false,
      "environment_summary": "neutral"
    },
    {
      "board_type": "hr_select_board",
      "rank": 5,
      "hitter_name": "Geraldo Perdomo",
      "hitter_id": 672695,
      "team_abbr": "AZ",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATL",
      "pitcher_name": "Mart\u00edn P\u00e9rez",
      "sportsbook": "BetMGM",
      "over_odds": 975,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1648,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1519,
      "projected_home_runs_palantir": 7.42,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791,
      "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1847,
      "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1808,
      "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1344,
      "hr_prob_refined": 0.064,
      "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1052,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.206,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1789,
      "palantir_confidence_label": "Low",
      "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim",
      "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT",
      "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support",
      "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3,
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT",
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift",
      "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0637,
      "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE",
      "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure",
      "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift",
      "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.",
      "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE",
      "damage_label": "Moderate Damage",
      "damage_score": 1,
      "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5",
      "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.",
      "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY",
      "suppression_label": "Clear Runway",
      "suppression_score": 8,
      "suppression_reason_count": 1,
      "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.",
      "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST",
      "trust_label": "Neutral Trust",
      "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.",
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0861,
      "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0122,
      "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.0927,
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0414,
      "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%",
      "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone",
      "edge_over": 0.0589,
      "play_tier": "Play",
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "confirmed_lineup_flag": false,
      "environment_summary": "neutral"
    }
  ]
}