Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / COL · 2026

McCarthy, Jake

Everyday offensive profile with usable floor

Primary
0.314 xwOBA
Range
0.285 to 0.364
Live Δ
yes
Team COL Archetype Ground-ball contact Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
35
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
36
Defense4 metrics
24
Speed4 metrics
75
Plate skills10 metrics
47
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
xwOBA preseason0.324
xwOBA current pace0.314
xwOBA rolling p500.318
Observed weight60%
xwOBA
0.293 0.305 0.318 0.331 0.343
wOBA
0.376 0.392 0.410 0.429 0.445
ISO
0.163 0.178 0.195 0.212 0.227
K%
15.4% 16.7% 18.2% 19.6% 21.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.2%
38 +15 vs proj
Exit velocity82.3
5
Hard-hit%26.7%
10
xBA0.324
53
xSLG0.499
46
xwOBA0.314
58
BB%5.4%
17
Bat speed67.4
23
K%17.2%
78
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-2.3 · CF
4
Arm Strength83.4 · CF
1
Outs Above Avg0.0 · CF
46
Range Runs-0.3 · CF
43
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.0 · CF
69
Bolts53.0 · CF
97
SB Success Rate75.0% · CF
34
Sprint Speed29.9 · CF
99
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-07-17
Avoids Bad ChasesST 60.1% · rebadged research
25
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 20.5% · rebadged research
87
Correct Decisions67.6% · rebadged research
64
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.257 · borderline
95
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.287 · insufficient sample
25
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.273 · validated thin sample
74
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.359 · insufficient sample
9
Resists FastballwOBA 0.352 · validated
25
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.373 · validated
18
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline100
46
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA McCarthy, Jake · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.308 0.314 2026-07-06: 0.3212026-07-07: 0.3172026-07-08: 0.3182026-07-09: 0.3172026-07-10: 0.3162026-07-11: 0.3152026-07-12: 0.3152026-07-13: 0.3122026-07-14: 0.3142026-07-15: 0.3142026-07-16: 0.3142026-07-17: 0.314 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Jake Mccarthy's tools (83) outpace production (84) by -1 points. Primary finding: elite raw contact quality undermined by swing decisions — the bat is dangerous when it connects.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Chase Rate Problem
Hold Hold Hold Hold Attack Hold Hold Hold Hold

Pitch recognition training and two-strike approach adjustment

Protected takes / Chase risk
Contact-Discipline Mismatch
Hold Hold Hold Hold Attack Hold Hold Hold Hold

Shorten swing against breaking balls while maintaining bat speed on fastballs

Protected takes / Chase risk
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

165 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart McCarthy, Jake · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 12% of plotted batted ballsPull 12%Center field third: 74% of plotted batted ballsCenter 74%Right field third: 15% of plotted batted ballsOppo 15% LF 347 CF 415 RF 350 2026-03-15 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 103.7 / LA 9.02026-03-15 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 37.0 / LA -11.02026-03-15 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 87.2 / LA 55.02026-03-15 · single · SL · popup · EV 68.7 / LA 59.02026-03-17 · single · FC · fly_ball · EV 66.9 / LA 30.02026-03-17 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 106.1 / LA 9.02026-03-17 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 79.0 / LA -34.02026-03-18 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 102.0 / LA -10.02026-03-18 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 80.2 / LA -13.02026-03-20 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 102.4 / LA 0.02026-03-20 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 78.6 / LA 27.02026-03-20 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 96.2 / LA -3.02026-03-20 · double · CU · ground_ball · EV 94.3 / LA -27.02026-03-22 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 99.9 / LA 6.02026-03-22 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 99.6 / LA 10.02026-03-22 · field out · FC · line_drive · EV 91.0 / LA 24.02026-03-23 · single · FF · fly_ball · EV 75.0 / LA 30.02026-03-23 · field out · KC · ground_ball · EV 72.7 / LA -2.02026-03-24 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 91.0 / LA -23.02026-03-24 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 83.4 / LA 35.02026-03-27 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 101.2 / LA 18.02026-03-27 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 46.7 / LA -76.02026-03-28 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 93.7 / LA -7.02026-03-28 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 99.5 / LA 5.02026-03-28 · field out · FF · popup · EV 66.8 / LA 88.02026-03-29 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 87.6 / LA -5.02026-03-29 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 84.2 / LA 10.02026-03-30 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 101.5 / LA 20.02026-03-30 · field error · CU · ground_ball · EV 64.6 / LA -49.02026-03-30 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 87.0 / LA 41.02026-03-31 · double · CU · line_drive · EV 101.0 / LA 16.02026-03-31 · field out · FF · popup · EV 61.2 / LA 63.02026-03-31 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 93.8 / LA -18.02026-03-31 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 93.9 / LA -5.02026-04-03 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 102.4 / LA 26.02026-04-03 · field out · FF · popup · EV 90.5 / LA 59.02026-04-05 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 80.2 / LA 43.02026-04-05 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 102.0 / LA 11.02026-04-06 · sac bunt · FF · ground_ball · EV 40.7 / LA -50.02026-04-06 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 80.4 / LA 54.02026-04-09 · single · CU · line_drive · EV 98.1 / LA 11.02026-04-09 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 65.1 / LA -27.02026-04-09 · sac bunt · FF · popup · EV 31.3 / LA 35.02026-04-09 · sac bunt · FF · ground_ball · EV 24.0 / LA -48.02026-04-11 · field out · KC · ground_ball · EV 67.3 / LA -18.02026-04-14 · single · ST · ground_ball · EV 55.8 / LA -24.02026-04-14 · triple · SI · fly_ball · EV 101.5 / LA 27.02026-04-15 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 76.9 / LA -5.02026-04-15 · single · CU · fly_ball · EV 78.3 / LA 43.02026-04-17 · field out · SL · popup · EV 54.5 / LA 47.02026-04-17 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 91.3 / LA -5.02026-04-19 · double · FO · line_drive · EV 78.1 / LA 29.02026-04-19 · force out · FF · ground_ball · EV 77.3 / LA 5.02026-04-19 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 82.9 / LA -2.02026-04-22 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 101.8 / LA -10.02026-04-22 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 101.7 / LA 15.02026-04-22 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 39.9 / LA -65.02026-04-22 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 85.6 / LA -2.02026-04-23 · double · ST · ground_ball · EV 87.8 / LA -1.02026-04-23 · field out · KN · ground_ball · EV 88.4 / LA -3.02026-04-24 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 39.2 / LA -37.02026-04-24 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 92.9 / LA 14.02026-04-26 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 92.0 / LA 6.02026-04-26 · field out · FF · popup · EV 57.2 / LA 50.02026-04-26 · single · CH · fly_ball · EV 66.4 / LA 33.02026-04-28 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 32.5 / LA -52.02026-04-28 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 87.2 / LA -8.02026-04-30 · sac fly · FF · fly_ball · EV 95.4 / LA 49.02026-05-01 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 77.8 / LA -10.02026-05-01 · grounded into double play · CU · ground_ball · EV 90.1 / LA -8.02026-05-03 · triple · FF · line_drive · EV 99.4 / LA 19.02026-05-03 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 97.5 / LA 1.02026-05-03 · field out · FF · ground_ball2026-05-06 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 82.2 / LA 13.02026-05-06 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 86.9 / LA 20.02026-05-06 · home run · FS · fly_ball · EV 100.2 / LA 28.02026-05-06 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 65.3 / LA -14.02026-05-07 · double · SI · fly_ball · EV 65.5 / LA 30.02026-05-08 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 93.5 / LA 14.02026-05-09 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 66.9 / LA 12.02026-05-09 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 74.0 / LA 29.02026-05-09 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 80.8 / LA 12.02026-05-10 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 94.7 / LA -27.02026-05-10 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 93.4 / LA 26.02026-05-12 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 73.4 / LA -15.02026-05-13 · field out · FC · popup · EV 70.6 / LA 62.02026-05-13 · double · FC · line_drive · EV 61.4 / LA 27.02026-05-15 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 92.8 / LA 20.02026-05-15 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 51.2 / LA 27.02026-05-15 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 77.1 / LA 10.02026-05-16 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 94.4 / LA 12.02026-05-16 · field out · FC · line_drive · EV 92.8 / LA 21.02026-05-16 · single · CU · fly_ball · EV 64.0 / LA 34.02026-05-17 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 74.2 / LA 15.02026-05-17 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 96.1 / LA -3.02026-05-17 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 79.7 / LA 2.02026-05-18 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 43.1 / LA -45.02026-05-18 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 90.2 / LA -8.02026-05-18 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 91.4 / LA 20.02026-05-19 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 68.5 / LA -5.02026-05-20 · triple · CH · fly_ball · EV 101.8 / LA 23.02026-05-20 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 81.6 / LA 22.02026-05-20 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 87.5 / LA 27.02026-05-20 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 89.3 / LA 55.02026-05-20 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 68.2 / LA -26.02026-05-21 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 102.8 / LA 31.02026-05-21 · field out · FF · popup · EV 89.0 / LA 70.02026-05-21 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 76.7 / LA -16.02026-05-21 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 86.2 / LA -44.02026-05-22 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 86.8 / LA 32.02026-05-22 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 79.3 / LA 38.02026-05-22 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 66.3 / LA -14.02026-05-22 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 69.4 / LA 11.02026-05-22 · sac fly · FF · fly_ball · EV 100.2 / LA 35.02026-05-23 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 80.4 / LA 48.02026-05-23 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 99.1 / LA 34.02026-05-23 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 90.9 / LA 27.02026-05-23 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 83.3 / LA 40.02026-05-24 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 101.9 / LA -2.02026-05-24 · field out · SL · popup · EV 71.8 / LA 75.02026-05-24 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 82.7 / LA 30.02026-05-24 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 98.7 / LA 8.02026-05-25 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 38.7 / LA -26.02026-05-25 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 82.9 / LA 52.02026-05-25 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 85.7 / LA 26.02026-05-26 · single · EP · ground_ball · EV 99.4 / LA 0.02026-05-26 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 68.5 / LA 23.02026-05-26 · force out · FF · ground_ball · EV 90.3 / LA -16.02026-05-31 · field out · FF · popup · EV 78.0 / LA 67.02026-05-31 · sac fly · CU · line_drive · EV 97.1 / LA 21.02026-06-01 · double · FS · line_drive · EV 104.4 / LA 10.02026-06-01 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 104.6 / LA 26.02026-06-01 · field out · KC · ground_ball · EV 86.3 / LA -32.02026-06-05 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 91.6 / LA 16.02026-06-05 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 76.8 / LA 35.02026-06-05 · grounded into double play · CH · ground_ball · EV 90.6 / LA -9.02026-06-05 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 101.4 / LA 3.02026-06-07 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 101.5 / LA -23.02026-06-07 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 63.9 / LA -78.02026-06-07 · grounded into double play · CH · ground_ball · EV 82.3 / LA 4.02026-06-15 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 86.9 / LA 1.02026-06-15 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 97.4 / LA -11.02026-06-15 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 85.6 / LA -59.02026-06-20 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 60.1 / LA 20.02026-06-20 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 92.2 / LA -12.02026-06-20 · double · CH · ground_ball · EV 81.7 / LA 3.02026-06-20 · home run · FF · line_drive · EV 104.9 / LA 18.02026-06-22 · triple · SI · ground_ball · EV 93.5 / LA -5.02026-06-22 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 35.7 / LA 28.02026-06-22 · field out · SI · popup · EV 53.2 / LA 46.02026-06-24 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 85.3 / LA 6.02026-06-24 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 78.0 / LA 12.02026-06-24 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 93.2 / LA 2.02026-06-24 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 82.0 / LA -5.02026-06-26 · home run · FS · fly_ball · EV 102.4 / LA 36.02026-06-26 · single · ST · ground_ball · EV 62.9 / LA -52.02026-06-26 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 108.6 / LA 18.02026-06-26 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 90.3 / LA 56.02026-06-30 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 77.0 / LA -11.02026-06-30 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 74.5 / LA 46.02026-06-30 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 102.7 / LA -24.02026-06-30 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 88.8 / LA 61.02026-07-01 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 71.0 / LA -42.02026-07-01 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 96.3 / LA -13.02026-07-01 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 93.0 / LA -11.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

No bat tracking

No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile McCarthy, Jake · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 47%47%Chase: 36%36%Whiff: 20%20%Zone contact: 87%87%Contact: 80%80%Hard hit: 27%27% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ+0.000
wOBA Δ+0.096
Sample331 PA

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances373----
Home Runs7----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3140.285 to 0.364+/- 0.039
ISO0.1420.103 to 0.238+/- 0.067
Barrel%3.1%1.5% to 5.2%+/- 1.9%
Hard-Hit%25.0%20.4% to 34.8%+/- 7.2%
K%17.1%14.7% to 26.2%+/- 5.8%
BB%6.5%4.3% to 9.1%+/- 2.4%
BABIP0.2990.252 to 0.365+/- 0.057
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

415 career PA

xwOBA0.220
K%14.5%
BB%4.4%
Barrel1.4%
vs RHP

1137 career PA

xwOBA0.242
K%13.6%
BB%5.0%
Barrel2.5%