Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / COL · 2026
McCarthy, Jake
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team COL
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 29
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.324 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.323 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.324 |
| Observed weight | 46% |
xwOBA
0.294
0.308
0.324
0.339
0.353
wOBA
0.377
0.399
0.423
0.448
0.470
ISO
0.136
0.155
0.176
0.197
0.216
K%
15.4%
17.0%
18.9%
20.8%
22.4%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%5.9%
19
Barrel%4.3%
39
Bat speed67.7
25
Exit velocity81.9
4
Hard-hit%25.0%
6
K%18.1%
74
xBA0.335
62
xSLG0.527
55
xwOBA0.323
61
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.0 · CF
49
Arm Strength83.4 · CF
2
Outs Above Avg0.0 · CF
45
Range Runs-0.4 · CF
46
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.2 · CF
50
Bolts24.0 · CF
91
SB Success Rate80.0% · CF
49
Sprint Speed29.8 · CF
98
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 60.7% · rebadged research
27
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 19.1% · rebadged research
92
Correct Decisions67.3% · rebadged research
61
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.269 · borderline
84
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.288 · insufficient sample
21
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.270 · validated thin sample
71
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.355 · insufficient sample
10
Resists FastballwOBA 0.332 · validated
64
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.375 · validated
15
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline102
54
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
133 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.009 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.109 |
| Sample | 188 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 373 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 7 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.314 | 0.285 to 0.364 | +/- 0.039 |
| ISO | 0.142 | 0.103 to 0.238 | +/- 0.067 |
| Barrel% | 3.1% | 1.5% to 5.2% | +/- 1.9% |
| Hard-Hit% | 25.0% | 20.4% to 34.8% | +/- 7.2% |
| K% | 17.1% | 14.7% to 26.2% | +/- 5.8% |
| BB% | 6.5% | 4.3% to 9.1% | +/- 2.4% |
| BABIP | 0.299 | 0.252 to 0.365 | +/- 0.057 |
vs LHP
415 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.220 |
| K% | 14.5% |
| BB% | 4.4% |
| Barrel | 1.4% |
vs RHP
1137 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.242 |
| K% | 13.6% |
| BB% | 5.0% |
| Barrel | 2.5% |