Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / CIN · 2026
Stewart, Sal
Young power bat with breakout ceiling
Team CIN
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 23
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.288 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.371 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.334 |
| Observed weight | 56% |
xwOBA
0.307
0.320
0.334
0.349
0.362
wOBA
0.388
0.406
0.426
0.446
0.464
ISO
0.159
0.178
0.200
0.222
0.241
K%
17.4%
19.2%
21.2%
23.2%
25.0%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%12.9%
86
+48 vs proj
Barrel%9.4%
91
+28 vs proj
Bat speed70.2
59
Exit velocity90.8
82
Hard-hit%42.7%
62
K%19.4%
65
+31 vs proj
xBA0.350
75
xSLG0.648
83
xwOBA0.371
88
+23 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength75.9 · 1B
1
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · 1B
27
Range Runs-0.4 · 1B
37
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.4 · 1B
55
SB Success Rate90.0% · 1B
82
Sprint Speed26.5 · 1B
28
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 68.0% · rebadged research
64
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.3% · rebadged research
81
Correct Decisions70.3% · rebadged research
85
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
77
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.270 · borderline
83
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.289 · insufficient sample
20
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.306 · validated thin sample
4
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.341 · insufficient sample
24
Resists FastballwOBA 0.402 · validated
2
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.357 · validated
49
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
179 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.045 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.101 |
| Sample | 278 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 233 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 10 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.326 | 0.228 to 0.312 | +/- 0.042 |
| ISO | 0.163 | 0.077 to 0.245 | +/- 0.084 |
| Barrel% | 6.0% | 2.6% to 8.4% | +/- 2.9% |
| Hard-Hit% | 41.5% | 25.0% to 48.2% | +/- 11.6% |
| K% | 25.0% | 13.3% to 28.8% | +/- 7.8% |
| BB% | 7.7% | 2.7% to 10.6% | +/- 4.0% |
| BABIP | 0.285 | 0.207 to 0.333 | +/- 0.063 |
vs LHP
8 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.090 |
| K% | 5.2% |
| BB% | 1.5% |
| Barrel | 2.7% |
vs RHP
59 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.083 |
| K% | 5.7% |
| BB% | 1.4% |
| Barrel | 2.6% |