Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / CIN · 2026

Stewart, Sal

Young power bat with breakout ceiling

Primary
0.326 xwOBA
Range
0.229 to 0.310
Live Δ
yes
Team CIN Archetype Impact slugger Age 23 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
80
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
75
Defense3 metrics
32
Speed3 metrics
37
Plate skills10 metrics
48
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
xwOBA preseason0.288
xwOBA current pace0.353
xwOBA rolling p500.332
Observed weight67%
xwOBA
0.308 0.319 0.332 0.344 0.356
wOBA
0.366 0.380 0.396 0.411 0.426
ISO
0.173 0.188 0.205 0.223 0.238
K%
18.6% 20.0% 21.6% 23.3% 24.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%9.3%
93 +27 vs proj
Exit velocity90.8
83
Hard-hit%43.3%
68
xBA0.335
64
xSLG0.630
83
xwOBA0.353
86 +19 vs proj
BB%11.2%
78 +39 vs proj
Bat speed70.5
64
K%20.7%
60 +24 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength83.5 · 1B
28
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · 1B
28
Range Runs-0.6 · 1B
40
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.3 · 1B
32
SB Success Rate81.8% · 1B
50
Sprint Speed26.6 · 1B
29
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-07-16
Avoids Bad ChasesST 68.9% · rebadged research
68
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.7% · rebadged research
79
Correct Decisions70.3% · rebadged research
87
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
82
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.265 · borderline
89
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.288 · insufficient sample
24
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.309 · validated thin sample
6
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.351 · insufficient sample
15
Resists FastballwOBA 0.406 · validated
1
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.365 · validated
33
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Stewart, Sal · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.308 0.353 2026-07-05: 0.3562026-07-06: 0.3572026-07-07: 0.3562026-07-08: 0.3562026-07-09: 0.3532026-07-10: 0.3532026-07-11: 0.3502026-07-12: 0.3532026-07-13: 0.3502026-07-14: 0.3522026-07-15: 0.3522026-07-16: 0.353 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Sal Stewart's tools (52) outpace production (70) by -18 points. Primary finding: excellent plate discipline but too passive on hittable pitches — letting strikes go by.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Passive In-Zone Approach
Pass Attack Pass Attack Attack Attack Pass Attack Pass

Increase in-zone swing rate, especially on fastballs in favorable counts

Hittable takes / Expansion guardrail
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

211 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Stewart, Sal · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 11% of plotted batted ballsPull 11%Center field third: 66% of plotted batted ballsCenter 66%Right field third: 22% of plotted batted ballsOppo 22% LF 328 CF 404 RF 325 2026-03-15 · double · KC · line_drive · EV 109.6 / LA 12.02026-03-15 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 103.8 / LA 9.02026-03-18 · field out · SI · ground_ball2026-03-18 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 98.7 / LA 37.02026-03-18 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 103.2 / LA 28.02026-03-20 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 98.7 / LA 20.02026-03-20 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 81.9 / LA 6.02026-03-20 · double · CH · line_drive · EV 109.0 / LA 8.02026-03-21 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 109.1 / LA -9.02026-03-21 · field out · CU · popup · EV 84.8 / LA 82.02026-03-21 · fielders choice out · SV · ground_ball · EV 74.3 / LA -34.02026-03-22 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 75.1 / LA -8.02026-03-22 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 90.1 / LA 52.02026-03-23 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 97.5 / LA -12.02026-03-24 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 84.0 / LA -40.02026-03-24 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 90.6 / LA -3.02026-03-26 · field out · FC · ground_ball2026-03-26 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 99.3 / LA 7.02026-03-26 · double · CH · fly_ball · EV 74.0 / LA 28.02026-03-26 · double · ST · line_drive · EV 109.0 / LA 16.02026-03-28 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 100.9 / LA 3.02026-03-28 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 108.6 / LA 34.02026-03-28 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 99.2 / LA 24.02026-03-28 · force out · FF · ground_ball · EV 104.4 / LA -1.02026-03-29 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 91.5 / LA 20.02026-03-29 · double · CU · line_drive · EV 107.1 / LA 19.02026-03-30 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 104.3 / LA -8.02026-03-31 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 103.8 / LA 31.02026-03-31 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 83.2 / LA 9.02026-04-01 · force out · FS · ground_ball · EV 71.7 / LA -9.02026-04-01 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 96.5 / LA -14.02026-04-01 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 80.4 / LA -25.02026-04-03 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 62.6 / LA -43.02026-04-03 · field out · CU · line_drive · EV 107.5 / LA 17.02026-04-03 · field out · SL · popup · EV 85.3 / LA 67.02026-04-04 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 106.6 / LA 12.02026-04-04 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 90.1 / LA 32.02026-04-04 · single · FC · fly_ball · EV 71.2 / LA 38.02026-04-05 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 95.1 / LA 30.02026-04-05 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 101.9 / LA 18.02026-04-06 · grounded into double play · SL · ground_ball · EV 82.5 / LA -46.02026-04-06 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 103.1 / LA 7.02026-04-06 · field out · SL · popup · EV 91.0 / LA 73.02026-04-06 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 102.5 / LA 29.02026-04-07 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 85.2 / LA 52.02026-04-07 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 103.0 / LA -1.02026-04-07 · sac fly · ST · fly_ball · EV 85.0 / LA 34.02026-04-08 · field error · FF · ground_ball · EV 82.2 / LA -28.02026-04-08 · double · FF · ground_ball · EV 106.0 / LA 3.02026-04-08 · home run · CH · fly_ball · EV 105.5 / LA 27.02026-04-08 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 82.6 / LA 45.02026-04-09 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 103.9 / LA -18.02026-04-09 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 103.4 / LA 26.02026-04-10 · force out · SL · ground_ball · EV 83.5 / LA -25.02026-04-10 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 111.4 / LA -2.02026-04-10 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 92.1 / LA -11.02026-04-11 · field error · FF · ground_ball · EV 66.6 / LA 10.02026-04-11 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 90.9 / LA 7.02026-04-12 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 93.0 / LA 25.02026-04-12 · field out · FS · fly_ball · EV 104.2 / LA 21.02026-04-12 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 90.2 / LA 39.02026-04-12 · single · SL · fly_ball · EV 72.4 / LA 34.02026-04-14 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 101.4 / LA 28.02026-04-15 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 70.9 / LA -22.02026-04-15 · home run · FF · line_drive · EV 103.6 / LA 21.02026-04-15 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 102.7 / LA 23.02026-04-16 · field out · CU · popup · EV 80.7 / LA 65.02026-04-16 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 59.5 / LA 3.02026-04-17 · force out · FC · ground_ball · EV 71.2 / LA 1.02026-04-17 · field error · ST · ground_ball · EV 62.9 / LA -12.02026-04-17 · single · SI · fly_ball · EV 65.7 / LA 44.02026-04-18 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 101.6 / LA 3.02026-04-18 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 96.8 / LA 14.02026-04-18 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 101.5 / LA 25.02026-04-18 · field out · FS · fly_ball · EV 89.9 / LA 58.02026-04-19 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 63.2 / LA -46.02026-04-19 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 95.9 / LA 1.02026-04-19 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 85.2 / LA 31.02026-04-19 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 108.8 / LA 15.02026-04-20 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 108.5 / LA 25.02026-04-20 · field out · ST · popup · EV 88.3 / LA 69.02026-04-20 · double · CU · ground_ball · EV 77.8 / LA 1.02026-04-21 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 94.7 / LA -15.02026-04-21 · sac fly · ST · fly_ball · EV 98.9 / LA 27.02026-04-21 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 106.5 / LA 13.02026-04-21 · single · SI · fly_ball · EV 71.5 / LA 37.02026-04-21 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 100.0 / LA -14.02026-04-22 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 98.7 / LA 30.02026-04-22 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 84.8 / LA 15.02026-04-22 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 53.8 / LA -52.02026-04-24 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 106.8 / LA 21.02026-04-24 · field out · SL · ground_ball2026-04-25 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 102.0 / LA -9.02026-04-25 · field out · CU · ground_ball2026-04-25 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 95.7 / LA 31.02026-04-25 · single · KC · ground_ball · EV 86.7 / LA 10.02026-04-26 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 89.7 / LA 51.02026-04-26 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 104.0 / LA -14.02026-04-26 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 86.6 / LA 30.02026-04-28 · field out · FF · popup · EV 94.0 / LA 68.02026-04-28 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 90.6 / LA 24.02026-04-28 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 104.8 / LA 21.02026-04-29 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 90.2 / LA 42.02026-04-29 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 84.2 / LA -2.02026-04-29 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 88.3 / LA -4.02026-04-30 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 77.3 / LA 0.02026-04-30 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 83.4 / LA 2.02026-04-30 · field out · ST · ground_ball2026-05-01 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 100.7 / LA -1.02026-05-01 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 81.4 / LA -4.02026-05-01 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 92.0 / LA 18.02026-05-01 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 87.4 / LA 56.02026-05-02 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 86.8 / LA 38.02026-05-02 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 101.4 / LA 15.02026-05-02 · field out · ST · line_drive · EV 88.4 / LA 9.02026-05-03 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 88.7 / LA -6.02026-05-03 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 90.1 / LA -26.02026-05-03 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 101.8 / LA 4.02026-05-03 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 100.1 / LA 34.02026-05-04 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 90.3 / LA 18.02026-05-04 · grounded into double play · SL · ground_ball · EV 72.5 / LA -11.02026-05-04 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 61.0 / LA -29.02026-05-05 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 77.0 / LA 1.02026-05-05 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 84.2 / LA -15.02026-05-06 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 84.3 / LA 2.02026-05-06 · field out · ST · popup · EV 86.0 / LA 61.02026-05-06 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 98.0 / LA 6.02026-05-06 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 86.0 / LA 6.02026-05-07 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 69.8 / LA -24.02026-05-07 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 105.8 / LA 35.02026-05-07 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 82.1 / LA -7.02026-05-08 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 101.5 / LA 32.02026-05-08 · field out · ST · line_drive · EV 98.7 / LA 23.02026-05-08 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 93.9 / LA 44.02026-05-08 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 77.9 / LA 19.02026-05-09 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 102.7 / LA 24.02026-05-09 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 98.6 / LA -1.02026-05-10 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 93.4 / LA 30.02026-05-10 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 110.1 / LA 20.02026-05-12 · single · CU · ground_ball · EV 102.2 / LA 6.02026-05-12 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 92.0 / LA 21.02026-05-12 · double · SL · ground_ball · EV 107.1 / LA 5.02026-05-12 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 95.3 / LA 23.02026-05-13 · field out · SL · popup · EV 69.4 / LA 47.02026-05-13 · field out · ST · ground_ball2026-05-13 · field out · FF · ground_ball2026-05-13 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 95.5 / LA 26.02026-05-14 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 75.6 / LA 44.02026-05-15 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 80.6 / LA 36.02026-05-15 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 71.6 / LA -39.02026-05-15 · field out · ST · popup · EV 86.7 / LA 71.02026-05-15 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 92.4 / LA 47.02026-05-16 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 89.7 / LA 4.02026-05-17 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 94.9 / LA 14.02026-05-17 · single · CU · ground_ball · EV 53.1 / LA -61.02026-05-17 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 102.6 / LA -1.02026-05-18 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 106.0 / LA 6.02026-05-18 · field out · ST · line_drive · EV 94.0 / LA 24.02026-05-18 · home run · ST · fly_ball · EV 101.3 / LA 27.02026-05-18 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 76.0 / LA 40.02026-05-19 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 99.4 / LA -5.02026-05-19 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 97.0 / LA 5.02026-05-19 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 89.2 / LA 42.02026-05-20 · double · FC · line_drive · EV 92.7 / LA 10.02026-05-20 · field out · KC · ground_ball · EV 92.4 / LA -8.02026-05-20 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 97.3 / LA 16.02026-05-20 · home run · FC · fly_ball · EV 109.7 / LA 27.02026-05-20 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 95.4 / LA 7.02026-05-23 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 91.0 / LA -22.02026-05-23 · field out · KC · fly_ball · EV 92.0 / LA 40.02026-05-25 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 105.9 / LA -21.02026-05-26 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 94.8 / LA 6.02026-05-26 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 95.7 / LA 54.02026-05-26 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 85.4 / LA -2.02026-05-27 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 58.8 / LA -57.02026-05-27 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 94.5 / LA -6.02026-05-27 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 62.5 / LA -41.02026-05-31 · field out · FC · popup · EV 94.4 / LA 75.02026-05-31 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 79.8 / LA 21.02026-06-01 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 96.4 / LA 13.02026-06-01 · force out · SL · ground_ball · EV 92.3 / LA -8.02026-06-01 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 92.5 / LA 33.02026-06-01 · field out · SL · popup · EV 81.4 / LA 85.02026-06-05 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 104.3 / LA 17.02026-06-05 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 98.6 / LA 19.02026-06-07 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 99.4 / LA -9.02026-06-07 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 95.9 / LA -17.02026-06-07 · field out · FF · popup · EV 80.7 / LA 61.02026-06-15 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 93.1 / LA -12.02026-06-15 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 91.5 / LA -4.02026-06-15 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 87.0 / LA 31.02026-06-15 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 69.4 / LA 13.02026-06-20 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 99.0 / LA 23.02026-06-20 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 70.6 / LA 12.02026-06-20 · sac fly · ST · line_drive · EV 102.5 / LA 18.02026-06-20 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 104.0 / LA 25.02026-06-22 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 88.9 / LA 41.02026-06-22 · field out · FC · ground_ball2026-06-24 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 98.0 / LA 10.02026-06-24 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 64.5 / LA -31.02026-06-24 · double · ST · fly_ball · EV 98.4 / LA 26.02026-06-26 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 92.2 / LA -1.02026-06-26 · field out · ST · popup · EV 72.6 / LA 73.02026-06-26 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 91.5 / LA 57.02026-06-30 · home run · SI · line_drive · EV 107.3 / LA 19.02026-06-30 · grounded into double play · CH · ground_ball · EV 70.7 / LA -8.02026-06-30 · double · FC · line_drive · EV 102.7 / LA 15.02026-07-01 · force out · FF · ground_ball · EV 83.6 / LA -17.02026-07-01 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 91.6 / LA -13.02026-07-01 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 108.9 / LA 5.02026-07-01 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 104.8 / LA 11.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics BAT SPEED DISTRIBUTION Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Bat Speed Stewart, Sal · aggregate bat speed marker 60 mph 85 mph Avg bat speed 71.2 mph Hard swing rate 20% Whiff / swing 23% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Stewart, Sal · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 47%47%Chase: 28%28%Whiff: 24%24%Zone contact: 81%81%Contact: 76%76%Hard hit: 43%43% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ+0.028
wOBA Δ+0.070
Sample439 PA

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances233----
Home Runs10----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3260.229 to 0.310+/- 0.041
ISO0.1630.078 to 0.245+/- 0.083
Barrel%6.0%2.6% to 8.4%+/- 2.9%
Hard-Hit%41.4%25.0% to 48.2%+/- 11.6%
K%25.0%13.3% to 28.8%+/- 7.8%
BB%7.7%2.7% to 10.6%+/- 4.0%
BABIP0.2850.207 to 0.333+/- 0.063
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

8 career PA

xwOBA0.090
K%5.2%
BB%1.5%
Barrel2.7%
vs RHP

59 career PA

xwOBA0.083
K%5.7%
BB%1.4%
Barrel2.6%