Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / NYY · 2026

Goldschmidt, Paul

Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach

Primary
0.330 xwOBA
Range
0.284 to 0.376
Live Δ
yes
Team NYY Archetype Balanced regular Age 39 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
58
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
52
Defense2 metrics
83
Speed1 metrics
10
Plate skills10 metrics
48
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
xwOBA preseason0.331
xwOBA current pace0.316
xwOBA rolling p500.322
Observed weight56%
xwOBA
0.294 0.307 0.322 0.337 0.351
wOBA
0.327 0.344 0.364 0.383 0.401
ISO
0.167 0.182 0.200 0.218 0.233
K%
20.3% 21.6% 23.0% 24.4% 25.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.9%
86 +30 vs proj
Exit velocity86.8
32
Hard-hit%40.2%
55
xBA0.314
41
xSLG0.579
72
xwOBA0.316
60
BB%6.9%
29
Bat speed69.9
52
K%23.5%
43
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg4.0 · 1B
89
Range Runs2.7 · 1B
77
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.5 · 1B
10
SB Success Rate100.0% · 1B
Small sample
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-07-16
Avoids Bad ChasesST 64.2% · rebadged research
42
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.6% · rebadged research
45
Correct Decisions65.1% · rebadged research
39
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.288 · borderline
48
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.277 · insufficient sample
59
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.294 · validated thin sample
18
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.314 · insufficient sample
90
Resists FastballwOBA 0.426 · validated
0
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.322 · validated
97
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline99
41
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Goldschmidt, Paul · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.308 0.316 2026-07-05: 0.3292026-07-06: 0.3282026-07-07: 0.3282026-07-08: 0.3242026-07-09: 0.3192026-07-10: 0.3142026-07-11: 0.3142026-07-12: 0.3102026-07-13: 0.3132026-07-14: 0.3162026-07-15: 0.3162026-07-16: 0.316 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Paul Goldschmidt's tools (77) outpace production (61) by 15 points. Primary finding: elite raw contact quality undermined by swing decisions — the bat is dangerous when it connects. Also flagged: Launch Angle Too High.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Launch Angle Too High
-12.0° Current 32° → Target 20°

Flatten swing plane to bring average LA into the 15-22° window

Solid = current angle. Dotted = recommended window.
Chase Rate Problem
Hold Hold Hold Hold Attack Hold Hold Hold Hold

Pitch recognition training and two-strike approach adjustment

Protected takes / Chase risk
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

115 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Goldschmidt, Paul · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 9% of plotted batted ballsPull 9%Center field third: 75% of plotted batted ballsCenter 75%Right field third: 17% of plotted batted ballsOppo 17% LF 318 CF 408 RF 314 2026-03-19 · field out · FF · popup · EV 97.8 / LA 61.02026-03-19 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 72.2 / LA 23.02026-03-21 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 99.3 / LA 33.02026-03-21 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 83.3 / LA 49.02026-03-22 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 103.6 / LA -24.02026-03-22 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 100.1 / LA 11.02026-03-23 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 107.2 / LA 24.02026-03-24 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 101.8 / LA -8.02026-03-27 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 79.0 / LA -38.02026-03-27 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 91.4 / LA -28.02026-03-27 · double · FF · ground_ball · EV 85.6 / LA 8.02026-03-27 · field out · FF · popup · EV 64.0 / LA 56.02026-03-27 · field out · KC · ground_ball · EV 101.2 / LA -22.02026-04-01 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 102.3 / LA -9.02026-04-01 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 105.3 / LA 34.02026-04-13 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 106.2 / LA 12.02026-04-14 · force out · CH · ground_ball · EV 69.4 / LA 4.02026-04-14 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 56.1 / LA 25.02026-04-15 · field out · KC · line_drive · EV 94.8 / LA 10.02026-04-19 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 99.0 / LA -8.02026-04-19 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 99.9 / LA 26.02026-04-19 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 107.4 / LA 24.02026-04-22 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 97.1 / LA -8.02026-04-22 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 66.5 / LA -7.02026-04-26 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 102.6 / LA 21.02026-04-26 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 105.0 / LA 20.02026-04-26 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 44.7 / LA 23.02026-04-26 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 86.6 / LA 12.02026-05-01 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 94.7 / LA -18.02026-05-01 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 95.7 / LA -7.02026-05-01 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 93.3 / LA 51.02026-05-01 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 103.1 / LA 41.02026-05-03 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 100.8 / LA 39.02026-05-03 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 80.5 / LA 20.02026-05-03 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 93.7 / LA -12.02026-05-04 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 92.5 / LA 19.02026-05-04 · field out · KC · line_drive · EV 100.9 / LA 18.02026-05-04 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 95.5 / LA -1.02026-05-05 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 97.1 / LA 15.02026-05-05 · home run · CH · line_drive · EV 104.8 / LA 21.02026-05-06 · field out · FS · popup · EV 72.1 / LA 79.02026-05-06 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 101.7 / LA 7.02026-05-07 · triple · FF · fly_ball · EV 100.3 / LA 30.02026-05-07 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 94.8 / LA 21.02026-05-08 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 100.6 / LA 57.02026-05-09 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 105.1 / LA 26.02026-05-09 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 50.0 / LA -41.02026-05-09 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 99.6 / LA 7.02026-05-09 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 95.6 / LA 2.02026-05-11 · field out · FF · popup · EV 85.8 / LA 77.02026-05-11 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 98.8 / LA 9.02026-05-12 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 91.9 / LA 41.02026-05-12 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 103.2 / LA 9.02026-05-12 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 109.8 / LA 34.02026-05-16 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 106.7 / LA 4.02026-05-16 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 86.5 / LA 15.02026-05-16 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 91.9 / LA 33.02026-05-18 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 71.6 / LA 3.02026-05-18 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 96.3 / LA 3.02026-05-18 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 105.1 / LA 30.02026-05-18 · double · CH · line_drive · EV 108.2 / LA 20.02026-05-20 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 89.7 / LA -9.02026-05-20 · field out · FF · popup · EV 57.4 / LA 64.02026-05-20 · single · CH · fly_ball · EV 69.0 / LA 43.02026-05-20 · field out · KC · ground_ball · EV 90.6 / LA -17.02026-05-21 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 83.0 / LA -32.02026-05-21 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 78.2 / LA -9.02026-05-22 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 91.1 / LA 8.02026-05-22 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 90.3 / LA 6.02026-05-22 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 97.1 / LA 37.02026-05-24 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 47.1 / LA -39.02026-05-25 · single · SL · popup · EV 36.8 / LA 43.02026-05-25 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 104.1 / LA 17.02026-05-25 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 91.6 / LA -12.02026-05-25 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 76.9 / LA -1.02026-05-26 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 106.2 / LA 11.02026-05-26 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 100.9 / LA -4.02026-05-26 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 69.5 / LA -2.02026-05-26 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 91.4 / LA 31.02026-05-26 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 99.6 / LA 9.02026-05-26 · field out · EP · ground_ball · EV 93.0 / LA 4.02026-05-27 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 95.4 / LA -5.02026-05-27 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 97.3 / LA 6.02026-05-27 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 76.7 / LA 23.02026-05-31 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 104.5 / LA -21.02026-05-31 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 68.4 / LA -10.02026-05-31 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 82.5 / LA 38.02026-05-31 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 62.4 / LA -26.02026-06-04 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 61.4 / LA -12.02026-06-04 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 89.0 / LA 3.02026-06-04 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 46.6 / LA 26.02026-06-05 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 77.0 / LA -6.02026-06-05 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 82.6 / LA -7.02026-06-05 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 68.2 / LA -1.02026-06-05 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 91.9 / LA 41.02026-06-07 · single · CU · line_drive · EV 86.2 / LA 20.02026-06-07 · single · FF · fly_ball · EV 68.6 / LA 37.02026-06-07 · field out · FF · popup · EV 73.7 / LA 79.02026-06-18 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 82.4 / LA -18.02026-06-18 · force out · SL · ground_ball · EV 45.8 / LA -27.02026-06-18 · single · SI · fly_ball · EV 64.4 / LA 28.02026-06-20 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 95.6 / LA 48.02026-06-20 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 50.0 / LA -19.02026-06-20 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 87.5 / LA -11.02026-06-20 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 104.3 / LA 25.02026-06-22 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 101.6 / LA -3.02026-06-22 · single · CU · ground_ball · EV 96.6 / LA -10.02026-06-24 · home run · CU · fly_ball · EV 104.9 / LA 30.02026-06-24 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 95.2 / LA 31.02026-06-26 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 100.1 / LA -2.02026-06-26 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 105.2 / LA -16.02026-06-26 · field out · SI · popup · EV 93.7 / LA 68.02026-06-30 · grounded into double play · CH · ground_ball · EV 70.6 / LA -5.02026-06-30 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 58.7 / LA -32.02026-06-30 · field out · FF · popup · EV 82.2 / LA 57.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

No bat tracking

No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Goldschmidt, Paul · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 48%48%Chase: 34%34%Whiff: 24%24%Zone contact: 79%79%Contact: 76%76%Hard hit: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Projected to do more damage vs lefties (0.320 vs 0.274 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
3
templated note
Age-39 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ-0.014
wOBA Δ+0.034
Sample277 PA

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances547----
Home Runs16----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3300.284 to 0.376+/- 0.046
ISO0.1340.105 to 0.233+/- 0.064
Barrel%5.5%4.3% to 8.1%+/- 1.9%
Hard-Hit%42.7%40.1% to 51.3%+/- 5.6%
K%21.7%18.4% to 27.4%+/- 4.5%
BB%7.9%6.1% to 11.3%+/- 2.6%
BABIP0.3030.268 to 0.355+/- 0.043
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

1675 career PA

xwOBA0.320
K%15.4%
BB%8.8%
Barrel5.7%
vs RHP

5416 career PA

xwOBA0.274
K%20.9%
BB%7.1%
Barrel5.2%