Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / NYY · 2026

Goldschmidt, Paul

Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach

Primary
0.330 xwOBA
Range
0.284 to 0.376
Live Δ
yes
Team NYY Archetype Balanced regular Age 39 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
xwOBA preseason0.331
xwOBA current pace0.383
xwOBA rolling p500.351
Observed weight39%
xwOBA
0.316 0.333 0.351 0.369 0.386
wOBA
0.343 0.368 0.396 0.423 0.448
ISO
0.145 0.165 0.188 0.210 0.230
K%
18.2% 19.7% 21.4% 23.1% 24.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%9.9%
64 +25 vs proj
Barrel%8.5%
85 +29 vs proj
Bat speed69.8
51
Exit velocity89.6
64
Hard-hit%49.0%
88 +25 vs proj
K%19.7%
63
xBA0.359
81
xSLG0.650
84
xwOBA0.383
93 +26 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg2.0 · 1B
81
Range Runs1.8 · 1B
72
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed24.7 · 1B
3
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-06-01
Avoids Bad ChasesST 65.8% · rebadged research
51
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.0% · rebadged research
71
Correct Decisions67.4% · rebadged research
62
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.295 · borderline
27
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.253 · insufficient sample
98
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.300 · validated thin sample
7
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.322 · insufficient sample
79
Resists FastballwOBA 0.409 · validated
1
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.336 · validated
89
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103
61
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Goldschmidt, Paul · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 2026-05-17: 0.4222026-05-19: 0.4262026-05-21: 0.4482026-05-23: 0.4132026-05-24: 0.4132026-05-25: 0.4102026-05-26: 0.4032026-05-28: 0.4072026-05-29: 0.4072026-05-30: 0.4072026-05-31: 0.3962026-06-01: 0.383 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

88 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Goldschmidt, Paul · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 9% of plotted batted ballsPull 9%Center field third: 75% of plotted batted ballsCenter 75%Right field third: 16% of plotted batted ballsOppo 16% LF 318 CF 408 RF 314 2026-03-19 · field out · FF · popup · EV 97.8 / LA 61.02026-03-19 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 72.2 / LA 23.02026-03-21 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 83.3 / LA 49.02026-03-21 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 99.3 / LA 33.02026-03-22 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 100.1 / LA 11.02026-03-22 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 103.6 / LA -24.02026-03-23 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 107.2 / LA 24.02026-03-24 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 101.8 / LA -8.02026-03-27 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 79.0 / LA -38.02026-03-27 · field out · FF · popup · EV 64.0 / LA 56.02026-03-27 · double · FF · ground_ball · EV 85.6 / LA 8.02026-03-27 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 91.4 / LA -28.02026-03-27 · field out · KC · ground_ball · EV 101.2 / LA -22.02026-04-01 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 105.3 / LA 34.02026-04-01 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 102.3 / LA -9.02026-04-13 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 106.2 / LA 12.02026-04-14 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 56.1 / LA 25.02026-04-14 · force out · CH · ground_ball · EV 69.4 / LA 4.02026-04-15 · field out · KC · line_drive · EV 94.8 / LA 10.02026-04-19 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 99.0 / LA -8.02026-04-19 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 99.9 / LA 26.02026-04-19 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 107.4 / LA 24.02026-04-22 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 97.1 / LA -8.02026-04-22 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 66.5 / LA -7.02026-04-26 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 86.6 / LA 12.02026-04-26 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 44.7 / LA 23.02026-04-26 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 102.6 / LA 21.02026-04-26 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 105.0 / LA 20.02026-05-01 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 94.7 / LA -18.02026-05-01 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 95.7 / LA -7.02026-05-01 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 93.3 / LA 51.02026-05-01 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 103.1 / LA 41.02026-05-03 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 80.5 / LA 20.02026-05-03 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 100.8 / LA 39.02026-05-03 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 93.7 / LA -12.02026-05-04 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 92.5 / LA 19.02026-05-04 · field out · KC · line_drive · EV 100.9 / LA 18.02026-05-04 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 95.5 / LA -1.02026-05-05 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 97.1 / LA 15.02026-05-05 · home run · CH · line_drive · EV 104.8 / LA 21.02026-05-06 · field out · FS · popup · EV 72.1 / LA 79.02026-05-06 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 101.7 / LA 7.02026-05-07 · triple · FF · fly_ball · EV 100.3 / LA 30.02026-05-07 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 94.8 / LA 21.02026-05-08 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 100.6 / LA 57.02026-05-09 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 99.6 / LA 7.02026-05-09 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 95.6 / LA 2.02026-05-09 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 50.0 / LA -41.02026-05-09 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 105.1 / LA 26.02026-05-11 · field out · FF · popup · EV 85.8 / LA 77.02026-05-11 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 98.8 / LA 9.02026-05-12 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 103.2 / LA 9.02026-05-12 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 91.9 / LA 41.02026-05-12 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 109.8 / LA 34.02026-05-16 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 86.5 / LA 15.02026-05-16 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 91.9 / LA 33.02026-05-16 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 106.7 / LA 4.02026-05-18 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 71.6 / LA 3.02026-05-18 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 96.3 / LA 3.02026-05-18 · double · CH · line_drive · EV 108.2 / LA 20.02026-05-18 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 105.1 / LA 30.02026-05-20 · field out · FF · popup · EV 57.4 / LA 64.02026-05-20 · field out · KC · ground_ball · EV 90.6 / LA -17.02026-05-20 · single · CH · fly_ball · EV 69.0 / LA 43.02026-05-20 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 89.7 / LA -9.02026-05-21 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 83.0 / LA -32.02026-05-21 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 78.2 / LA -9.02026-05-22 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 90.3 / LA 6.02026-05-22 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 97.1 / LA 37.02026-05-22 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 91.1 / LA 8.02026-05-24 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 47.1 / LA -39.02026-05-25 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 76.9 / LA -1.02026-05-25 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 91.6 / LA -12.02026-05-25 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 104.1 / LA 17.02026-05-25 · single · SL · popup · EV 36.8 / LA 43.02026-05-26 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 69.5 / LA -2.02026-05-26 · field out · EP · ground_ball · EV 93.0 / LA 4.02026-05-26 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 99.6 / LA 9.02026-05-26 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 100.9 / LA -4.02026-05-26 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 106.2 / LA 11.02026-05-26 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 91.4 / LA 31.02026-05-27 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 76.7 / LA 23.02026-05-27 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 95.4 / LA -5.02026-05-27 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 97.3 / LA 6.02026-05-31 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 82.5 / LA 38.02026-05-31 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 104.5 / LA -21.02026-05-31 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 62.4 / LA -26.02026-05-31 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 68.4 / LA -10.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.

No bat tracking

No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Goldschmidt, Paul · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 49%49%Chase: 30%30%Whiff: 22%22%Zone contact: 83%83%Contact: 78%78%Hard hit: 49%49% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Projected to do more damage vs lefties (0.320 vs 0.274 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
3
templated note
Age-39 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ+0.053
wOBA Δ+0.066
Sample142 PA

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances547----
Home Runs16----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3300.284 to 0.376+/- 0.046
ISO0.1340.105 to 0.233+/- 0.064
Barrel%5.5%4.3% to 8.1%+/- 1.9%
Hard-Hit%42.7%40.1% to 51.3%+/- 5.6%
K%21.7%18.4% to 27.4%+/- 4.5%
BB%7.9%6.1% to 11.3%+/- 2.6%
BABIP0.3030.268 to 0.355+/- 0.043
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

1675 career PA

xwOBA0.320
K%15.4%
BB%8.8%
Barrel5.7%
vs RHP

5416 career PA

xwOBA0.274
K%20.9%
BB%7.1%
Barrel5.2%