Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
Hitter projection / ATL · 2026
Acuña Jr.., Ronald
Middle-order power profile with real damage
Team ATL
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 29
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.381 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.400 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.391 |
| Observed weight | 50% |
xwOBA
0.361
0.375
0.391
0.406
0.421
wOBA
0.344
0.364
0.387
0.409
0.429
ISO
0.158
0.176
0.197
0.217
0.236
K%
17.7%
19.1%
20.7%
22.3%
23.7%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%16.2%
97
+16 vs proj
Barrel%8.8%
87
Bat speed73.3
91
Exit velocity90.4
77
Hard-hit%46.2%
77
K%21.3%
54
xBA0.359
80
xSLG0.716
93
xwOBA0.400
97
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.1 · RF
49
Arm Strength97.3 · RF
86
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · RF
8
Range Runs-1.2 · RF
33
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.2 · RF
84
Bolts1.0 · RF
17
SB Success Rate90.0% · RF
82
Sprint Speed27.1 · RF
45
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.3% · rebadged research
74
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 20.0% · rebadged research
89
Correct Decisions70.7% · rebadged research
88
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.291 · borderline
34
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.296 · insufficient sample
11
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.298 · validated thin sample
8
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.341 · insufficient sample
26
Resists FastballwOBA 0.306 · validated
96
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.368 · validated
25
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline109
88
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
124 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.019 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.005 |
| Sample | 216 PA |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 430 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 19 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.381 | 0.340 to 0.424 | +/- 0.042 |
| ISO | 0.206 | 0.150 to 0.288 | +/- 0.069 |
| Barrel% | 8.9% | 6.0% to 10.9% | +/- 2.5% |
| Hard-Hit% | 50.2% | 43.7% to 57.5% | +/- 6.9% |
| K% | 21.6% | 16.2% to 25.8% | +/- 4.8% |
| BB% | 12.1% | 10.7% to 15.5% | +/- 2.4% |
| BABIP | 0.331 | 0.292 to 0.366 | +/- 0.037 |
vs LHP
907 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.319 |
| K% | 16.7% |
| BB% | 12.9% |
| Barrel | 6.6% |
vs RHP
2980 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.337 |
| K% | 15.0% |
| BB% | 10.5% |
| Barrel | 7.7% |