Mithrandir Metrics

Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections

	PA	R	H	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2024	654	70	147	22	11	.245	.302	.414	.716
2025	534	76	134	10	5	.274	.328	.403	.731
2026	262	32	62	15	1	.258	.317	.492	.809
16 Seasons	9088	1312	2252	387	175	.287	.376	.503	.879

At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17

58

Offense
percentile

Offense9 metrics

52

Defense2 metrics

83

Speed1 metrics

10

Plate skills10 metrics

48

Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17

xwOBA preseason	0.331
xwOBA current pace	0.316
xwOBA rolling p50	0.322
Observed weight	56%

xwOBA

0.294 0.307 0.322 0.337 0.351

wOBA

0.327 0.344 0.364 0.383 0.401

ISO

0.167 0.182 0.200 0.218 0.233

K%

20.3% 21.6% 23.0% 24.4% 25.7%

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17

Hitting · percentile strip

Barrel%7.9%

86 +30 vs proj

Exit velocity86.8

32

Hard-hit%40.2%

55

xBA0.314

41

xSLG0.579

72

xwOBA0.316

60

BB%6.9%

29

Bat speed69.9

52

K%23.5%

43

Defense · percentile strip

Outs Above Avg4.0 · 1B

89

Range Runs2.7 · 1B

77

Baserunning · percentile strip

Sprint Speed25.5 · 1B

10

SB Success Rate100.0% · 1B

Small sample

Mithrandir+

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.

2026-07-17

Avoids Bad ChasesST 64.2% · rebadged research

42

Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.6% · rebadged research

45

Correct Decisions65.1% · rebadged research

39

Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.288 · borderline

48

Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.277 · insufficient sample

59

Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.294 · validated thin sample

18

Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.314 · insufficient sample

90

Resists FastballwOBA 0.426 · validated

0

Resists SinkerwOBA 0.322 · validated

97

SEAGER+ Plate Discipline99

41

Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots

Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Paul Goldschmidt's tools (77) outpace production (61) by 15 points. Primary finding: elite raw contact quality undermined by swing decisions — the bat is dangerous when it connects. Also flagged: Launch Angle Too High.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Launch Angle Too High

-12.0° Current 32° → Target 20°

Flatten swing plane to bring average LA into the 15-22° window

Solid = current angle. Dotted = recommended window.

Chase Rate Problem

Hold Hold Hold Hold Attack Hold Hold Hold Hold

Pitch recognition training and two-strike approach adjustment

Protected takes / Chase risk

Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

115 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-1.6σ gap

wOBA (actual)0.364

xwOBA (deserved)0.316

Goldschmidt’s wOBA sits at 0.364, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.316 — a gap of 0.048, -1.6 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 277 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape

Closest profiles

Full constellation →

Player	Similarity	Agrees on	Open
Vientos, Mark NYM · R	0.77	Swing lengthStrikeout rate	Player · Projection
France, Ty SD · R	0.76	Bat speedMax exit velocity	Player · Projection
Walker, Christian HOU · R	0.72	Ground-ball rateIsolated power	Player · Projection
Machado, Manny SD · R	0.68	Fly-ball rateWhiff rate	Player · Projection

Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

Module	Cards	Latest	Signal
Hitting	6	2026-07-12	Impact contact carried uneven swing decisions

Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.330 xwOBA \| 16 HR	Projection
2026-05-20 vs TOR0 HR \| 1 RBI / 5 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| RBI
2026-04-15 vs LAA0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	0-1
2026-04-14 vs LAA0 HR \| 0 RBI / 4 Ch \| 0 E	0-3 \| K
2026-04-13 vs LAA0 HR \| 0 RBI / 6 Ch \| 0 E	1-2 \| 2B, BB, K
2026-04-04 vs MIA0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	0-0 \| BB, R

Age	38
Height	6' 2"
Weight	225 lb
Debut	2011-08-01

xwOBA Δ	-0.014
wOBA Δ	+0.034

Hitter Projections 20260.330 xwOBA \| 16 HR	Projection
2026-05-20 vs TOR0 HR \| 1 RBI / 5 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| RBI
2026-04-15 vs LAA0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	0-1
2026-04-14 vs LAA0 HR \| 0 RBI / 4 Ch \| 0 E	0-3 \| K
2026-04-13 vs LAA0 HR \| 0 RBI / 6 Ch \| 0 E	1-2 \| 2B, BB, K
2026-04-04 vs MIA0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	0-0 \| BB, R

Paul Goldschmidt

Season by season

Season percentile report

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Current traits vs projection tick

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

xwOBA snapshot line

Swing path and decision map

Field-coordinate spray profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Current snapshot

Delta / regression

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

Closest profiles

Module shelf

Available detail