Reference layer
Current snapshot
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Player profile / MIA
Owen Caissie
Player · Bats/Throws L/R · 6' 4", 190 lb · Age 24
Club MIA
Position --
Roster Injured 10-Day
Status IL-10
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 27 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | .192 | .222 | .346 | .568 |
| 2026 | 246 | 30 | 52 | 12 | 4 | .239 | .297 | .459 | .756 |
| 2 Seasons | 273 | 34 | 57 | 13 | 4 | .234 | .289 | .447 | .736 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
83
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
Pending
Rolling player projection appears after current-season Statcast and projection joins refresh.
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.2%
87
Exit velocity90.8
84
Hard-hit%48.5%
87
xBA0.385
94
xSLG0.766
97
xwOBA0.309
52
BB%8.2%
46
Bat speed72.4
82
K%38.8%
1
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.6 · RF
11
Arm Strength92.2 · RF
45
Outs Above Avg-8.0 · RF
0
Range Runs-7.3 · RF
1
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.6 · RF
60
Sprint Speed28.2 · RF
73
SB Success Rate75.0% · RF
Small sample
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.8% · rebadged research
61
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.7% · rebadged research
26
Correct Decisions66.1% · rebadged research
50
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.262 · borderline
93
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.271 · insufficient sample
78
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.308 · validated thin sample
7
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.348 · insufficient sample
17
Resists FastballwOBA 0.337 · validated
54
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.355 · validated
64
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline100
48
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
90 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | -- |
| wOBA Δ | -- |
negative regression
Regression watch
Running hot. Expect some cooling.
Caissie’s wOBA sits at 0.340, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.309 — a gap of 0.031, -1.0 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 255 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.
Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape
Closest profiles
| Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rooker, Brent ATH · R | 0.56 | Bat speedPull rate | Player · Projection |
| Raley, Luke SEA · L | 0.56 | xwOBA on contactGround-ball rate | Player · Projection |
| Torkelson, Spencer DET · R | 0.47 | Oppo rateIsolated power | Player · Projection |
| Greene, Riley DET · L | 0.43 | Fly-ball rateBarrel rate | Player · Projection |
Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 2 | 2026-07-07 | Impact contact was the main driver |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| 2026-05-20 vs ATL0 HR | 0 RBI / 1 Ch | 0 E | 0-1 | K |
| 2026-04-20 vs STL0 HR | 0 RBI / 1 Ch | 0 E | 0-4 | K |
| 2026-04-17 vs MIL0 HR | 1 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E | 1-2 | K, RBI |
| 2026-04-15 @ ATL0 HR | 0 RBI / 1 Ch | 0 E | 0-2 | K |
| 2026-04-14 @ ATL0 HR | 0 RBI / 3 Ch | 0 E | 0-4 | 4 K |