Reference layer
Current snapshot
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Player profile / MIA
Owen Caissie
Player · Bats/Throws L/R · 6' 4", 190 lb · Age 24
Club MIA
Position --
Roster profile
Status IL-10
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 27 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | .192 | .222 | .346 | .568 |
| 2026 | 330 | 45 | 64 | 14 | 5 | .220 | .288 | .412 | .700 |
| 2 Seasons | 357 | 49 | 69 | 15 | 5 | .218 | .283 | .407 | .690 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
81
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.249 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.302 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.281 |
| Observed weight | 61% |
xwOBA
0.246
0.262
0.281
0.299
0.316
wOBA
0.287
0.302
0.319
0.336
0.351
ISO
0.118
0.139
0.162
0.185
0.205
K%
28.3%
30.8%
33.5%
36.3%
38.8%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.3%
84
+31 vs proj
Exit velocity90.3
82
Hard-hit%45.3%
81
+61 vs proj
xBA0.365
91
xSLG0.701
96
xwOBA0.302
50
+22 vs proj
BB%8.8%
54
+20 vs proj
Bat speed72.7
86
K%36.8%
3
-24 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-2.4 · RF
9
Arm Strength92.9 · RF
45
Outs Above Avg-7.0 · RF
2
Range Runs-6.3 · RF
9
Baserunning · percentile strip
SB Success Rate80.0% · RF
48
Sprint Speed28.3 · RF
75
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 68.1% · rebadged research
64
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.0% · rebadged research
30
Correct Decisions66.4% · rebadged research
53
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline102
54
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.258 · borderline
95
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.260 · insufficient sample
93
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.303 · validated thin sample
12
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.323 · insufficient sample
56
Resists FastballwOBA 0.347 · validated
32
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.352 · validated
62
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
131 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | +0.019 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.036 |
negative regression
Regression watch
Running hot. Expect some cooling.
Caissie’s wOBA sits at 0.319, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.302 — a gap of 0.017, -0.6 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 342 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.
Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape
Closest profiles
| Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Greene, Riley DET · L | 0.62 | Max exit velocityGround-ball rate | Player · Projection |
| Riley, Austin ATL · R | 0.60 | Ground-ball rateHard-hit rate | Player · Projection |
| Neto, Zach LAA · R | 0.55 | Swing lengthOppo rate | Player · Projection |
| Suárez, Eugenio CIN · R | 0.54 | Oppo rateFly-ball rate | Player · Projection |
Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 2 | 2026-07-07 | Impact contact was the main driver |
| Fielding | 10 | 2026-09-09 | 8 chances | 0 difficult plays | Run Exp +5.421 |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| Hitter Projections 20260.283 xwOBA | 7 HR | Projection |