Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.314 vs 0.261 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / DET · 2026
Greene, Riley
Impact bat with above-average thump
Team DET
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 26
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
92
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.352 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.373 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.367 |
| Observed weight | 73% |
xwOBA
0.346
0.356
0.367
0.379
0.389
wOBA
0.366
0.378
0.392
0.405
0.417
ISO
0.182
0.193
0.205
0.217
0.228
K%
24.2%
25.2%
26.3%
27.5%
28.4%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%9.1%
95
Exit velocity90.0
78
Hard-hit%46.6%
86
xBA0.380
96
xSLG0.723
96
xwOBA0.373
97
BB%11.7%
86
+34 vs proj
Bat speed74.1
95
K%26.2%
31
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-2.5 · LF
8
Arm Strength87.0 · LF
6
Outs Above Avg-4.0 · LF
6
Range Runs-3.4 · LF
16
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.8 · LF
18
Sprint Speed26.6 · LF
28
SB Success Rate66.7% · LF
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.4% · rebadged research
75
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 20.6% · rebadged research
88
Correct Decisions70.2% · rebadged research
88
Resists FastballwOBA 0.359 · validated
18
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline110
91
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.342 · borderline
2
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.285 · insufficient sample
33
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.275 · validated thin sample
65
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.336 · insufficient sample
23
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.433 · validated
0
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
248 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.017 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.036 |
| Sample | 607 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 622 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 27 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.356 | 0.311 to 0.392 | +/- 0.041 |
| ISO | 0.213 | 0.167 to 0.300 | +/- 0.067 |
| Barrel% | 9.5% | 6.1% to 11.2% | +/- 2.5% |
| Hard-Hit% | 47.3% | 40.5% to 52.7% | +/- 6.1% |
| K% | 26.7% | 23.0% to 32.5% | +/- 4.8% |
| BB% | 8.6% | 6.4% to 11.9% | +/- 2.7% |
| BABIP | 0.318 | 0.277 to 0.373 | +/- 0.048 |
vs LHP
604 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.261 |
| K% | 25.1% |
| BB% | 6.6% |
| Barrel | 5.8% |
vs RHP
1657 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.314 |
| K% | 24.1% |
| BB% | 7.9% |
| Barrel | 8.5% |