Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / MIA · 2026
Caissie, Owen
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team MIA
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 24
Status IL-10
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
81
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.249 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.302 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.281 |
| Observed weight | 61% |
xwOBA
0.246
0.262
0.281
0.299
0.316
wOBA
0.287
0.302
0.319
0.336
0.351
ISO
0.118
0.139
0.162
0.185
0.205
K%
28.3%
30.8%
33.5%
36.3%
38.8%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.3%
84
+31 vs proj
Exit velocity90.3
82
Hard-hit%45.3%
81
+61 vs proj
xBA0.365
91
xSLG0.701
96
xwOBA0.302
50
+22 vs proj
BB%8.8%
54
+20 vs proj
Bat speed72.7
86
K%36.8%
3
-24 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-2.4 · RF
9
Arm Strength92.9 · RF
45
Outs Above Avg-7.0 · RF
2
Range Runs-6.3 · RF
9
Baserunning · percentile strip
SB Success Rate80.0% · RF
48
Sprint Speed28.3 · RF
75
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 68.1% · rebadged research
64
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.0% · rebadged research
30
Correct Decisions66.4% · rebadged research
53
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline102
54
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.258 · borderline
95
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.260 · insufficient sample
93
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.303 · validated thin sample
12
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.323 · insufficient sample
56
Resists FastballwOBA 0.347 · validated
32
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.352 · validated
62
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
131 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.019 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.036 |
| Sample | 342 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 215 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 7 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.283 | 0.111 to 0.261 | +/- 0.075 |
| ISO | 0.139 | 0.027 to 0.234 | +/- 0.103 |
| Barrel% | 5.0% | 0.2% to 6.2% | +/- 3.0% |
| Hard-Hit% | 31.0% | 9.7% to 40.1% | +/- 15.2% |
| K% | 27.2% | 12.3% to 37.0% | +/- 12.4% |
| BB% | 7.1% | 1.5% to 10.4% | +/- 4.5% |
| BABIP | 0.275 | 0.151 to 0.338 | +/- 0.093 |
vs LHP
6 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.022 |
| K% | 5.8% |
| BB% | 0.6% |
| Barrel | 0.6% |
vs RHP
47 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.024 |
| K% | 5.4% |
| BB% | 0.7% |
| Barrel | 0.8% |