Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
2
templated note
Age-35 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / CIN · 2026
Suárez, Eugenio
Middle-order power profile with real damage
Team CIN
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 35
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.324 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.290 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.311 |
| Observed weight | 39% |
xwOBA
0.281
0.295
0.311
0.326
0.340
wOBA
0.312
0.336
0.363
0.391
0.415
ISO
0.138
0.158
0.180
0.202
0.221
K%
26.5%
28.2%
30.2%
32.1%
33.8%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%11.3%
76
+35 vs proj
Barrel%4.9%
48
-32 vs proj
Bat speed68.9
39
Exit velocity87.1
33
Hard-hit%26.6%
8
-60 vs proj
K%31.0%
10
xBA0.328
56
xSLG0.563
64
xwOBA0.290
32
-34 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · 3B
27
Range Runs-1.1 · 3B
Limited
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.9 · DH
18
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.5% · rebadged research
60
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.0% · rebadged research
32
Correct Decisions66.3% · rebadged research
51
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.289 · borderline
37
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.300 · insufficient sample
8
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.283 · validated thin sample
28
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.372 · insufficient sample
3
Resists FastballwOBA 0.341 · validated
48
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.323 · validated
97
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline101
49
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
78 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.037 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.036 |
| Sample | 142 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 633 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 35 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.327 | 0.291 to 0.366 | +/- 0.038 |
| ISO | 0.207 | 0.157 to 0.285 | +/- 0.064 |
| Barrel% | 7.7% | 5.2% to 10.1% | +/- 2.4% |
| Hard-Hit% | 44.4% | 38.6% to 51.3% | +/- 6.4% |
| K% | 28.7% | 24.9% to 35.0% | +/- 5.1% |
| BB% | 8.2% | 5.3% to 10.9% | +/- 2.8% |
| BABIP | 0.283 | 0.241 to 0.335 | +/- 0.047 |
vs LHP
1677 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.283 |
| K% | 28.2% |
| BB% | 9.1% |
| Barrel | 6.7% |
vs RHP
4912 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.271 |
| K% | 26.1% |
| BB% | 6.1% |
| Barrel | 6.2% |