Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.268 vs 0.220 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / LAA · 2026
Lowe, Josh
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team LAA
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 28
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
50
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.316 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.286 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.297 |
| Observed weight | 62% |
xwOBA
0.271
0.284
0.297
0.311
0.323
wOBA
0.278
0.293
0.310
0.326
0.341
ISO
0.144
0.158
0.173
0.188
0.202
K%
26.0%
27.4%
28.9%
30.5%
31.8%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.6%
62
Exit velocity87.6
47
Hard-hit%36.7%
42
-24 vs proj
xBA0.316
48
xSLG0.564
70
xwOBA0.286
31
-29 vs proj
BB%7.3%
35
Bat speed70.7
68
K%30.5%
15
-27 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs4.1 · LF
96
Arm Strength91.7 · LF
32
Outs Above Avg0.0 · LF
50
Range Runs1.4 · LF
65
Baserunning · percentile strip
Bolts2.0 · LF
26
SB Success Rate90.9% · LF
82
Sprint Speed28.1 · LF
68
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 60.6% · rebadged research
27
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.8% · rebadged research
75
Correct Decisions67.3% · rebadged research
62
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
37
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.279 · borderline
72
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.275 · insufficient sample
67
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.284 · validated thin sample
35
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.292 · insufficient sample
98
Resists FastballwOBA 0.331 · validated
66
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.320 · validated
97
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
154 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.026 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.002 |
| Sample | 357 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 468 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 15 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.312 | 0.271 to 0.365 | +/- 0.047 |
| ISO | 0.173 | 0.131 to 0.256 | +/- 0.063 |
| Barrel% | 5.9% | 4.0% to 8.4% | +/- 2.2% |
| Hard-Hit% | 41.5% | 38.1% to 48.0% | +/- 4.9% |
| K% | 24.2% | 21.5% to 33.0% | +/- 5.7% |
| BB% | 7.4% | 4.8% to 10.1% | +/- 2.6% |
| BABIP | 0.319 | 0.276 to 0.374 | +/- 0.049 |
vs LHP
303 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.220 |
| K% | 24.4% |
| BB% | 5.5% |
| Barrel | 3.1% |
vs RHP
1299 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.268 |
| K% | 21.4% |
| BB% | 6.3% |
| Barrel | 5.3% |