Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.268 vs 0.220 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / LAA · 2026
Lowe, Josh
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team LAA
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 28
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
47
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.316 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.289 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.303 |
| Observed weight | 48% |
xwOBA
0.272
0.287
0.303
0.320
0.334
wOBA
0.277
0.296
0.318
0.341
0.360
ISO
0.147
0.164
0.184
0.203
0.220
K%
23.4%
25.0%
26.9%
28.8%
30.5%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.4%
71
Exit velocity87.8
46
Hard-hit%35.6%
33
-29 vs proj
xBA0.308
34
xSLG0.574
70
xwOBA0.289
30
-25 vs proj
BB%4.9%
13
-22 vs proj
Bat speed71.9
78
K%27.6%
23
-17 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs2.1 · LF
94
Arm Strength91.7 · LF
38
Outs Above Avg0.0 · LF
46
Range Runs1.3 · LF
66
Baserunning · percentile strip
Bolts2.0 · LF
33
Sprint Speed27.9 · LF
65
SB Success Rate100.0% · LF
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 58.0% · rebadged research
17
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.7% · rebadged research
43
Correct Decisions64.8% · rebadged research
35
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.266 · borderline
88
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.282 · insufficient sample
39
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.269 · validated thin sample
82
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.315 · insufficient sample
90
Resists FastballwOBA 0.349 · validated
30
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.330 · validated
95
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline93
17
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
104 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.023 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.007 |
| Sample | 203 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 468 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 15 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.312 | 0.271 to 0.365 | +/- 0.047 |
| ISO | 0.173 | 0.131 to 0.256 | +/- 0.063 |
| Barrel% | 5.9% | 4.0% to 8.4% | +/- 2.2% |
| Hard-Hit% | 41.5% | 38.1% to 48.0% | +/- 4.9% |
| K% | 24.2% | 21.5% to 33.0% | +/- 5.7% |
| BB% | 7.4% | 4.8% to 10.1% | +/- 2.6% |
| BABIP | 0.319 | 0.276 to 0.374 | +/- 0.049 |
vs LHP
303 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.220 |
| K% | 24.4% |
| BB% | 5.5% |
| Barrel | 3.1% |
vs RHP
1299 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.268 |
| K% | 21.4% |
| BB% | 6.3% |
| Barrel | 5.3% |