Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.293 vs 0.245 xwOBA split).
Hitter projection / WSH · 2026
García Jr.., Luis
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team WSH
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 26
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.336 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.319 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.328 |
| Observed weight | 49% |
xwOBA
0.302
0.315
0.328
0.341
0.353
wOBA
0.298
0.318
0.340
0.363
0.383
ISO
0.117
0.132
0.150
0.168
0.183
K%
13.8%
15.1%
16.4%
17.8%
19.0%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%2.9%
3
Barrel%6.7%
71
Bat speed71.7
77
Exit velocity92.1
91
Hard-hit%47.9%
84
+24 vs proj
K%16.8%
80
xBA0.338
64
xSLG0.518
52
xwOBA0.319
59
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · 1B
27
Range Runs-1.4 · 1B
26
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.6 · 1B
25
Sprint Speed26.6 · 1B
30
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 55.4% · rebadged research
12
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.2% · rebadged research
49
Correct Decisions62.5% · rebadged research
17
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.304 · borderline
16
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.285 · insufficient sample
27
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.292 · validated thin sample
15
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.308 · insufficient sample
95
Resists FastballwOBA 0.349 · validated
33
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.353 · validated
60
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline92
13
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
158 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.013 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.008 |
| Sample | 208 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 530 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 16 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.333 | 0.314 to 0.374 | +/- 0.030 |
| ISO | 0.163 | 0.108 to 0.224 | +/- 0.058 |
| Barrel% | 6.3% | 4.2% to 8.4% | +/- 2.1% |
| Hard-Hit% | 42.1% | 39.6% to 49.5% | +/- 5.0% |
| K% | 15.6% | 12.9% to 20.7% | +/- 3.9% |
| BB% | 5.5% | 4.5% to 8.4% | +/- 2.0% |
| BABIP | 0.278 | 0.259 to 0.328 | +/- 0.034 |
vs LHP
572 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.245 |
| K% | 14.4% |
| BB% | 4.3% |
| Barrel | 3.5% |
vs RHP
1836 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.293 |
| K% | 12.2% |
| BB% | 4.6% |
| Barrel | 5.8% |