Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.293 vs 0.245 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / NYY · 2026
García Jr., Luis
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team NYY
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 26
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
85
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.333 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.341 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.338 |
| Observed weight | 72% |
xwOBA
0.318
0.328
0.338
0.349
0.359
wOBA
0.341
0.353
0.367
0.381
0.393
ISO
0.190
0.200
0.213
0.225
0.236
K%
15.8%
16.6%
17.6%
18.6%
19.5%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%9.6%
97
+21 vs proj
Exit velocity91.2
89
Hard-hit%46.2%
85
+17 vs proj
xBA0.340
74
xSLG0.599
80
xwOBA0.341
86
BB%4.4%
10
Bat speed72.9
88
K%18.2%
76
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg4.0 · 1B
88
Range Runs2.6 · 1B
79
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-3.0 · 1B
9
Sprint Speed26.4 · 1B
24
SB Success Rate66.7% · 1B
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 58.6% · rebadged research
17
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.3% · rebadged research
70
Correct Decisions63.7% · rebadged research
25
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline96
28
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.306 · borderline
20
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.302 · insufficient sample
9
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.303 · validated thin sample
12
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.282 · insufficient sample
99
Resists FastballwOBA 0.340 · validated
43
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.385 · validated
8
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
288 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.011 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.038 |
| Sample | 565 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 530 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 17 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.329 | 0.311 to 0.371 | +/- 0.030 |
| ISO | 0.161 | 0.107 to 0.221 | +/- 0.057 |
| Barrel% | 6.6% | 4.4% to 8.7% | +/- 2.2% |
| Hard-Hit% | 42.1% | 39.6% to 49.5% | +/- 5.0% |
| K% | 15.6% | 12.9% to 20.7% | +/- 3.9% |
| BB% | 5.5% | 4.5% to 8.4% | +/- 2.0% |
| BABIP | 0.270 | 0.252 to 0.318 | +/- 0.033 |
vs LHP
572 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.245 |
| K% | 14.4% |
| BB% | 4.3% |
| Barrel | 3.5% |
vs RHP
1836 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.293 |
| K% | 12.2% |
| BB% | 4.6% |
| Barrel | 5.8% |