Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.295 vs 0.250 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / STL · 2026
Burleson, Alec
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team STL
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 28
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
89
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.341 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.383 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.368 |
| Observed weight | 65% |
xwOBA
0.346
0.356
0.368
0.380
0.390
wOBA
0.340
0.354
0.370
0.386
0.400
ISO
0.153
0.165
0.179
0.193
0.206
K%
12.7%
13.6%
14.7%
15.7%
16.7%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.7%
89
+29 vs proj
Exit velocity91.7
91
Hard-hit%49.2%
89
+23 vs proj
xBA0.353
80
xSLG0.647
86
xwOBA0.383
97
+21 vs proj
BB%8.2%
45
Bat speed71.6
76
K%15.2%
86
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · 1B
18
Range Runs-1.5 · 1B
33
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.1 · 1B
46
Sprint Speed25.6 · 1B
12
SB Success Rate100.0% · 1B
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 63.9% · rebadged research
41
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.8% · rebadged research
42
Correct Decisions65.5% · rebadged research
42
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline99
39
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.289 · borderline
44
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.297 · insufficient sample
12
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.328 · validated thin sample
1
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.324 · insufficient sample
74
Resists FastballwOBA 0.346 · validated
36
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.361 · validated
43
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
214 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.045 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.032 |
| Sample | 415 PA |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 546 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 18 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.338 | 0.318 to 0.376 | +/- 0.029 |
| ISO | 0.161 | 0.108 to 0.230 | +/- 0.061 |
| Barrel% | 5.7% | 4.2% to 7.9% | +/- 1.9% |
| Hard-Hit% | 42.5% | 39.0% to 49.7% | +/- 5.3% |
| K% | 14.7% | 11.3% to 18.9% | +/- 3.8% |
| BB% | 7.0% | 5.0% to 9.7% | +/- 2.4% |
| BABIP | 0.284 | 0.269 to 0.334 | +/- 0.032 |
vs LHP
330 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.250 |
| K% | 12.8% |
| BB% | 4.6% |
| Barrel | 3.9% |
vs RHP
1319 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.295 |
| K% | 10.9% |
| BB% | 5.9% |
| Barrel | 5.5% |