Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / PIT · 2026
Triolo, Jared
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team PIT
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 28
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
23
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.318 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.285 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.297 |
| Observed weight | 63% |
xwOBA
0.274
0.285
0.297
0.309
0.319
wOBA
0.278
0.293
0.309
0.325
0.339
ISO
0.082
0.094
0.107
0.121
0.133
K%
19.3%
20.5%
21.9%
23.3%
24.5%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%1.6%
8
-41 vs proj
Exit velocity85.1
20
Hard-hit%33.3%
28
-23 vs proj
xBA0.310
39
xSLG0.407
14
xwOBA0.285
30
-23 vs proj
BB%7.5%
37
-24 vs proj
Bat speed66.9
21
K%20.0%
68
+24 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.1 · SS
18
Arm Strength93.2 · SS
89
Outs Above Avg1.0 · SS
73
Range Runs-0.7 · SS
45
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.7 · SS
74
SB Success Rate100.0% · SS
94
Sprint Speed28.3 · SS
75
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 69.4% · rebadged research
70
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.8% · rebadged research
34
Correct Decisions67.0% · rebadged research
59
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.270 · borderline
87
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.280 · insufficient sample
46
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.272 · validated thin sample
74
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.308 · insufficient sample
87
Resists FastballwOBA 0.331 · validated
65
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.352 · validated
65
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103
62
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
150 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.020 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.004 |
| Sample | 375 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 445 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 10 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.305 | 0.284 to 0.348 | +/- 0.032 |
| ISO | 0.150 | 0.098 to 0.225 | +/- 0.063 |
| Barrel% | 4.7% | 2.5% to 6.7% | +/- 2.1% |
| Hard-Hit% | 38.4% | 34.4% to 46.5% | +/- 6.0% |
| K% | 24.1% | 19.3% to 30.1% | +/- 5.4% |
| BB% | 9.4% | 6.7% to 12.3% | +/- 2.8% |
| BABIP | 0.290 | 0.260 to 0.345 | +/- 0.043 |
vs LHP
316 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.244 |
| K% | 18.2% |
| BB% | 8.0% |
| Barrel | 3.3% |
vs RHP
760 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.243 |
| K% | 19.6% |
| BB% | 8.0% |
| Barrel | 3.2% |