Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / PIT · 2026
Triolo, Jared
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team PIT
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 28
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.318 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.258 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.299 |
| Observed weight | 31% |
xwOBA
0.270
0.284
0.299
0.314
0.327
wOBA
0.255
0.283
0.314
0.345
0.373
ISO
0.088
0.108
0.132
0.155
0.176
K%
21.2%
23.2%
25.3%
27.5%
29.4%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%3.0%
4
-55 vs proj
Barrel%1.0%
5
-40 vs proj
Bat speed68.3
31
Exit velocity85.0
15
Hard-hit%33.3%
24
-19 vs proj
K%25.7%
31
xBA0.334
61
xSLG0.412
18
xwOBA0.258
11
-34 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength93.2 · SS
90
Outs Above Avg1.0 · SS
71
Arm Runs-0.1 · SS
Limited
Range Runs-1.7 · SS
Limited
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed28.5 · 3B
83
SB Success Rate100.0% · 3B
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.6% · rebadged research
81
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.8% · rebadged research
42
Correct Decisions68.1% · rebadged research
69
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.274 · borderline
78
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.283 · insufficient sample
33
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.272 · validated thin sample
65
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.339 · insufficient sample
30
Resists FastballwOBA 0.335 · validated
59
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.358 · validated
47
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline105
74
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
61 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.047 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.010 |
| Sample | 101 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 445 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 10 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.305 | 0.284 to 0.349 | +/- 0.033 |
| ISO | 0.151 | 0.098 to 0.225 | +/- 0.063 |
| Barrel% | 4.7% | 2.5% to 6.7% | +/- 2.1% |
| Hard-Hit% | 38.4% | 34.4% to 46.5% | +/- 6.0% |
| K% | 24.1% | 19.3% to 30.1% | +/- 5.4% |
| BB% | 9.4% | 6.7% to 12.3% | +/- 2.8% |
| BABIP | 0.290 | 0.260 to 0.345 | +/- 0.043 |
vs LHP
316 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.244 |
| K% | 18.2% |
| BB% | 8.0% |
| Barrel | 3.3% |
vs RHP
760 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.243 |
| K% | 19.6% |
| BB% | 8.0% |
| Barrel | 3.2% |