Mithrandir Metrics

Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections

	PA	R	H	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2024	446	41	85	9	8	.216	.296	.315	.611
2025	376	41	75	7	13	.227	.311	.356	.667
2026	215	21	45	1	6	.233	.302	.306	.608
4 Seasons	1246	133	259	20	33	.236	.317	.339	.656

At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17

26

Offense
percentile

Offense9 metrics

29

Defense4 metrics

56

Speed3 metrics

85

Plate skills10 metrics

56

Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17

xwOBA preseason	0.318
xwOBA current pace	0.279
xwOBA rolling p50	0.298
Observed weight	51%

xwOBA

0.273 0.284 0.298 0.311 0.323

wOBA

0.281 0.300 0.320 0.341 0.360

ISO

0.092 0.107 0.125 0.142 0.158

K%

20.7% 22.2% 23.9% 25.6% 27.1%

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17

Hitting · percentile strip

Barrel%1.3%

7 -38 vs proj

Exit velocity86.3

29

Hard-hit%36.8%

40

xBA0.317

45

xSLG0.409

15

xwOBA0.279

22 -24 vs proj

BB%7.0%

31 -29 vs proj

Bat speed67.4

24

K%22.7%

48

Defense · percentile strip

Arm Runs-0.1 · SS

22

Arm Strength93.2 · SS

90

Outs Above Avg1.0 · SS

68

Range Runs-0.4 · SS

44

Baserunning · percentile strip

Base Running Runs1.5 · SS

80

SB Success Rate100.0% · SS

93

Sprint Speed28.5 · SS

81

Mithrandir+

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.

2026-07-17

Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.5% · rebadged research

76

Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.9% · rebadged research

24

Correct Decisions66.5% · rebadged research

54

Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.265 · borderline

90

Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.284 · insufficient sample

33

Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.271 · validated thin sample

79

Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.333 · insufficient sample

45

Resists FastballwOBA 0.322 · validated

81

Resists SinkerwOBA 0.375 · validated

15

SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103

59

Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots

Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

77 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-1.3σ gap

wOBA (actual)0.320

xwOBA (deserved)0.279

Triolo’s wOBA sits at 0.320, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.279 — a gap of 0.042, -1.3 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 229 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape

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Full constellation →

Player	Similarity	Agrees on	Open
Gonzales, Nick PIT · R	0.77	Whiff rateIsolated power	Player · Projection
Winn, Masyn STL · R	0.76	Fly-ball rateMax exit velocity	Player · Projection
Gilbert, Drew SF · L	0.67	Barrel rateChase rate	Player · Projection
Rengifo, Luis MIL · L	0.64	Isolated powerGround-ball rate	Player · Projection

Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

Module	Cards	Latest	Signal
No Mithrandir card history is available for this player yet.

Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.305 xwOBA \| 10 HR	Projection
2026-04-03 vs BAL0 HR \| 1 RBI / 2 Ch \| 0 E	2-3 \| K, RBI, R
2026-04-01 @ CIN0 HR \| 0 RBI / 4 Ch \| 0 E	1-3 \| BB, K
2026-03-30 @ CIN0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	0-4 \| 2 K
2026-03-29 @ NYM0 HR \| 0 RBI / 5 Ch \| 1 E	0-3 \| BB, HBP
2026-03-26 @ NYM0 HR \| 0 RBI / 1 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| 2B, K, R

Age	28
Height	6' 3"
Weight	212 lb
Debut	2023-06-28

xwOBA Δ	-0.026
wOBA Δ	+0.016

Hitter Projections 20260.305 xwOBA \| 10 HR	Projection
2026-04-03 vs BAL0 HR \| 1 RBI / 2 Ch \| 0 E	2-3 \| K, RBI, R
2026-04-01 @ CIN0 HR \| 0 RBI / 4 Ch \| 0 E	1-3 \| BB, K
2026-03-30 @ CIN0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	0-4 \| 2 K
2026-03-29 @ NYM0 HR \| 0 RBI / 5 Ch \| 1 E	0-3 \| BB, HBP
2026-03-26 @ NYM0 HR \| 0 RBI / 1 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| 2B, K, R

Jared Triolo

Season by season

Season percentile report

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Current traits vs projection tick

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

xwOBA snapshot line

Field-coordinate spray profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Current snapshot

Delta / regression

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

Closest profiles

Module shelf

Available detail