Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / STL · 2026
Winn, Masyn
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team STL
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 24
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
34
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.305 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.298 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.301 |
| Observed weight | 63% |
xwOBA
0.276
0.288
0.301
0.313
0.325
wOBA
0.284
0.298
0.315
0.331
0.345
ISO
0.087
0.099
0.112
0.125
0.136
K%
17.4%
18.4%
19.6%
20.8%
21.8%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%2.1%
14
-16 vs proj
Exit velocity87.4
41
Hard-hit%35.0%
31
xBA0.325
55
xSLG0.423
20
xwOBA0.298
41
BB%8.8%
52
+24 vs proj
Bat speed69.1
41
K%19.8%
67
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.1 · SS
18
Arm Strength97.2 · SS
99
Outs Above Avg8.0 · SS
96
Range Runs6.1 · SS
94
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.5 · SS
80
Bolts2.0 · SS
33
SB Success Rate100.0% · SS
93
Sprint Speed28.3 · SS
77
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.7% · rebadged research
82
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.3% · rebadged research
39
Correct Decisions68.0% · rebadged research
69
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline105
72
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.288 · borderline
47
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.273 · insufficient sample
70
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.309 · validated thin sample
6
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.322 · insufficient sample
78
Resists FastballwOBA 0.307 · validated
94
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.369 · validated
25
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
178 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.008 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.009 |
| Sample | 374 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 543 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 11 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.306 | 0.282 to 0.363 | +/- 0.041 |
| ISO | 0.141 | 0.103 to 0.220 | +/- 0.058 |
| Barrel% | 3.8% | 2.2% to 6.5% | +/- 2.1% |
| Hard-Hit% | 36.8% | 32.8% to 43.6% | +/- 5.4% |
| K% | 17.4% | 14.9% to 23.0% | +/- 4.0% |
| BB% | 6.8% | 5.5% to 9.7% | +/- 2.1% |
| BABIP | 0.290 | 0.270 to 0.345 | +/- 0.037 |
vs LHP
416 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.255 |
| K% | 15.4% |
| BB% | 6.2% |
| Barrel | 3.5% |
vs RHP
964 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.242 |
| K% | 15.0% |
| BB% | 5.5% |
| Barrel | 2.7% |