Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / STL · 2026
Winn, Masyn
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team STL
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 24
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
38
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.305 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.297 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.299 |
| Observed weight | 71% |
xwOBA
0.278
0.288
0.299
0.310
0.320
wOBA
0.277
0.289
0.302
0.315
0.327
ISO
0.084
0.094
0.104
0.115
0.124
K%
19.1%
20.1%
21.1%
22.2%
23.1%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%2.2%
14
-19 vs proj
Exit velocity87.9
50
Hard-hit%34.7%
33
xBA0.325
59
xSLG0.437
27
xwOBA0.297
43
BB%9.5%
63
+32 vs proj
Bat speed69.5
47
K%21.9%
56
-25 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.1 · SS
16
Arm Strength99.8 · SS
99
Outs Above Avg19.0 · SS
99
Range Runs14.3 · SS
99
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.2 · SS
66
Bolts4.0 · SS
39
SB Success Rate100.0% · SS
93
Sprint Speed28.5 · SS
80
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 73.2% · rebadged research
89
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.3% · rebadged research
29
Correct Decisions67.9% · rebadged research
68
Resists FastballwOBA 0.288 · validated
99
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
78
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.286 · borderline
57
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.270 · insufficient sample
77
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.305 · validated thin sample
10
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.318 · insufficient sample
68
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.360 · validated
41
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
229 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.009 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.004 |
| Sample | 549 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 543 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 11 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.306 | 0.282 to 0.363 | +/- 0.041 |
| ISO | 0.141 | 0.103 to 0.220 | +/- 0.058 |
| Barrel% | 3.8% | 2.2% to 6.5% | +/- 2.1% |
| Hard-Hit% | 36.8% | 32.8% to 43.6% | +/- 5.4% |
| K% | 17.4% | 14.9% to 23.0% | +/- 4.0% |
| BB% | 6.8% | 5.5% to 9.7% | +/- 2.1% |
| BABIP | 0.290 | 0.270 to 0.345 | +/- 0.037 |
vs LHP
416 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.255 |
| K% | 15.4% |
| BB% | 6.2% |
| Barrel | 3.5% |
vs RHP
964 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.242 |
| K% | 15.0% |
| BB% | 5.5% |
| Barrel | 2.7% |