Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / STL · 2026
Winn, Masyn
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team STL
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 24
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.305 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.296 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.301 |
| Observed weight | 51% |
xwOBA
0.273
0.286
0.301
0.315
0.328
wOBA
0.280
0.299
0.319
0.340
0.358
ISO
0.084
0.099
0.115
0.131
0.146
K%
17.6%
18.8%
20.2%
21.6%
22.9%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%9.5%
60
+34 vs proj
Barrel%1.7%
10
-20 vs proj
Bat speed68.1
29
Exit velocity85.8
21
Hard-hit%29.7%
12
-25 vs proj
K%21.1%
56
-22 vs proj
xBA0.329
58
xSLG0.418
20
xwOBA0.296
38
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.1 · SS
14
Arm Strength97.2 · SS
99
Outs Above Avg1.0 · SS
71
Range Runs0.3 · SS
48
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.2 · SS
84
Sprint Speed28.1 · SS
72
SB Success Rate100.0% · SS
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.3% · rebadged research
79
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.8% · rebadged research
34
Correct Decisions67.5% · rebadged research
64
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
70
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.298 · borderline
23
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.276 · insufficient sample
56
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.277 · validated thin sample
45
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.325 · insufficient sample
71
Resists FastballwOBA 0.309 · validated
94
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.361 · validated
38
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
152 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.010 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.013 |
| Sample | 232 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 543 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 11 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.306 | 0.282 to 0.363 | +/- 0.041 |
| ISO | 0.141 | 0.103 to 0.220 | +/- 0.058 |
| Barrel% | 3.8% | 2.2% to 6.5% | +/- 2.1% |
| Hard-Hit% | 36.8% | 32.8% to 43.6% | +/- 5.4% |
| K% | 17.4% | 14.9% to 23.0% | +/- 4.0% |
| BB% | 6.8% | 5.5% to 9.7% | +/- 2.1% |
| BABIP | 0.290 | 0.270 to 0.345 | +/- 0.037 |
vs LHP
416 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.255 |
| K% | 15.4% |
| BB% | 6.2% |
| Barrel | 3.5% |
vs RHP
964 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.242 |
| K% | 15.0% |
| BB% | 5.5% |
| Barrel | 2.7% |