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Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-05-17 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-05-17
21 matched props 7 unmatched
Newer: 2026-05-19 Older: 2026-05-14

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 21
Grouped Pitchers 6
Books 3
Unmatched Inputs 7
Projection Source strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay
2026-06-02 2026-06-01 2026-05-31 2026-05-30 2026-05-29 2026-05-28 2026-05-26 2026-05-25

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-05-17 | Raw sportsbook rows: 21 | Grouped pitcher entries: 6 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-05-17/strikeout_edges_2026-05-17.json
Michael Soroka headshot

Michael Soroka
AZ vs COL | 4 books
Strong
Adj K 4.57
Strongest Gap Under +12.76%
Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
5.5
O -105 / U -125
Over gap -19.54% / Under gap +12.76%
Under +12.76%
FanDuel
5.5
O -102 / U -130
Over gap -18.82% / Under gap +11.80%
Under +11.80%
FanDuel
5.5
O -102 / U -130
Over gap -18.82% / Under gap +11.80%
Under +11.80%
DraftKings
5.5
O +104 / U -133
Over gap -17.34% / Under gap +11.24%
Under +11.24%
Model O 31.7% | U 68.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 50.6
Michael Lorenzen headshot

Michael Lorenzen
COL vs AZ | 4 books
Strong
Adj K 3.96
Strongest Gap Over +7.30%
Best Line 3.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
3.5
O +115 / U -155
Over gap +7.30% / Under gap -14.59%
Over +7.30%
FanDuel
3.5
O +110 / U -134
Over gap +6.19% / Under gap -11.07%
Over +6.19%
FanDuel
3.5
O +110 / U -134
Over gap +6.19% / Under gap -11.07%
Over +6.19%
DraftKings
3.5
O +107 / U -137
Over gap +5.50% / Under gap -11.62%
Over +5.50%
Model O 53.8% | U 46.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 26.3
Jeffrey Springs headshot

Jeffrey Springs
ATH vs SF | 4 books
Strong
Adj K 4.57
Strongest Gap Under +5.62%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O -134 / U +110
Over gap -10.50% / Under gap +5.62%
Under +5.62%
FanDuel
4.5
O -134 / U +110
Over gap -10.50% / Under gap +5.62%
Under +5.62%
DraftKings
4.5
O -141 / U +110
Over gap -11.75% / Under gap +5.62%
Under +5.62%
BetMGM
4.5
O -150 / U +110
Over gap -13.24% / Under gap +5.62%
Under +5.62%
Model O 46.8% | U 53.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 39.4
Adrian Houser headshot

Adrian Houser
SF vs ATH | 4 books
Lean
Adj K 3.85
Strongest Gap Over +2.09%
Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
3.5
O +101 / U -128
Over gap +2.09% / Under gap -7.98%
Over +2.09%
BetMGM
3.5
O -105 / U -125
Over gap +0.62% / Under gap -7.40%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -114 / U -114
Over gap -1.43% / Under gap -5.11%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -114 / U -114
Over gap -1.43% / Under gap -5.11%
No Play
Model O 51.8% | U 48.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 42.9
Lucas Giolito headshot

Lucas Giolito
SD vs SEA | 1 books
No Play
Adj K 4.33
Strongest Gap No Play +0.36%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O +100 / U -132
Over gap -7.26% / Under gap +0.36%
No Play
Model O 42.7% | U 57.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 36.4
George Kirby headshot

George Kirby
SEA vs SD | 4 books
No Play
Adj K 5.61
Strongest Gap No Play -0.19%
Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
5.5
O +110 / U -150
Over gap -0.19% / Under gap -7.43%
No Play
DraftKings
5.5
O +102 / U -130
Over gap -2.07% / Under gap -3.95%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +100 / U -122
Over gap -2.57% / Under gap -2.38%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +100 / U -122
Over gap -2.57% / Under gap -2.38%
No Play
Model O 47.4% | U 52.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 58.3

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.