Mithrandir Metrics
Palantir 2026-09-26 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Pitcher Outs

Pitcher Outs · Palantir.

Starter workload probabilities with leash, traffic, and lane-health context.

Rows
4
Date
2026-09-26
Lane
Palantir
PITCHER OUTS 2026-09-26 · saved artifact ROWS 4 FILTERS lineup default on when confirmed lineups exist
Lane Health 2026-09-26
Palantir 1088 props Brier 0.255 ECE 0.053 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)

Model Lane

Pitcher Outs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn missing Valinor missing
Signal caveat Market context only.

Pitcher outs is running as market context only right now. On the graded record to date the model's over/under probabilities have not shown reliable signal at posted lines, and daily recalibration is intentionally pulling them toward neutral. Treat this board as context, not conviction, while the sample accumulates.

769 / 300 fresh graded predictions. Auto-review at 300 fresh graded predictions (since 2026-07-01): the caveat lifts only when the calibration curve is monotone and Brier is at or under the base rate.
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Pitcher Outs board
#PlayerMatchupThree lanesLineModelMarketGap Outs projIPBFRecent KRecent BB Best line
01
Tanner BibeeCLE
CLE vs KCneutral
P 48.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Under 14.5
51.3%Under prob · Palantir 37.7%no-vig +6.46% 16.81count5.60leash23.592volume0.2045traffic0.0743traffic FanDuel -200 avg 1 books
02
Michael WachaKC
KC vs CLEneutral
P 47.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Under 17.5
52.5%Under prob · Palantir 41.7%no-vig +5.97% 17.45count5.82leash24.55volume0.2179traffic0.0822traffic FanDuel -166 avg 1 books
03
Davis MartinCWS
CWS vs COLneutral
P 47.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Under 14.5
52.3%Under prob · Palantir 46.5%no-vig +2.67% 15.18count5.06leash19.462volume0.2106traffic0.0866traffic FanDuel -136 avg 1 books
04
Bailey OberMIN
MIN vs TEXneutral
P 47.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 15.5
47.8%Over prob · Palantir 46.2%no-vig +7.60% 16.02count5.34leash22.414volume0.1917traffic0.0836traffic FanDuel 102 avg 1 books