Mithrandir Metrics

HITS 2026-07-17 · saved artifact ROWS 20 FILTERS lineup default on when confirmed lineups exist

Lane Health 2026-07-17

Palantir 137 props Brier 0.153 ECE 0.025 sample building

Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)

Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)

Model Lane

Hits

Choose which Mithrandir probability lane drives this board. The URL stores the selected lane, so links stay shareable.

Palantir production Fangorn experimental Valinor missing

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.

Hits board

#	Player	Matchup	Three lanes	Line	Model	Market	Gap	Prop	Hits proj	Line prob	PA	Recent	Pitch mix	Best line
01	Jackson ChourioMIL	MIL vs MIA	P 3.1 F 2.0 EXPERIMENTAL V -- in progress PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes	Under 0.5 1 of 2	98.0%Under prob · Fangorn	25.6%no-vig	--	1+ Hitline	0.355count	98.0%selected	1.53role	--form	--fit	FanDuel 190 avg 1 books
02	Evan CarterTEX	TEX vs ATL	P 98.0 F 98.0 EXPERIMENTAL V -- in progress PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes	Under 0.5 1 of 2	2.0%Under prob · Fangorn	47.6%no-vig	--	1+ Hitline	0.214count	2.0%selected	1.25role	--form	--fit	FanDuel 600 avg 1 books
03	Jake BauersMIL	MIL vs MIA	P 11.1 F 9.3 EXPERIMENTAL V -- in progress PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes	Under 0.5 1 of 2	90.7%Under prob · Fangorn	37.0%no-vig	--	1+ Hitline	0.621count	90.7%selected	3.39role	--form	--fit	FanDuel 340 avg 1 books
04	Brandon NimmoTEX	TEX vs ATL	P 18.9 F 16.5 EXPERIMENTAL V -- in progress PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes	Under 1.5 2 of 2	83.5%Under prob · Fangorn	68.8%no-vig	--	2+ Hitsline	0.821count	83.5%selected	4.26role	--form	--fit	FanDuel 220 avg 1 books
05	Michael Harris IIATL	ATL vs TEX	P 25.7 F 25.7 EXPERIMENTAL V -- in progress PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes	Under 1.5 2 of 2	74.4%Under prob · Fangorn	63.0%no-vig	--	2+ Hitsline	0.988count	74.4%selected	3.84role	--form	--fit	FanDuel 170 avg 1 books
06	Josh JungTEX	TEX vs ATL	P 18.3 F 18.3 EXPERIMENTAL V -- in progress PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes	Under 1.5 2 of 2	81.7%Under prob · Fangorn	72.2%no-vig	--	2+ Hitsline	0.806count	81.7%selected	3.7role	--form	--fit	FanDuel 260 avg 1 books
07	Drake BaldwinATL	ATL vs TEX	P 28.6 F 28.0 EXPERIMENTAL V -- in progress PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes	Under 1.5 2 of 2	72.0%Under prob · Fangorn	62.3%no-vig	--	2+ Hitsline	1.057count	72.0%selected	4.05role	--form	--fit	FanDuel 165 avg 1 books
08	Bryan ReynoldsPIT	PIT vs CLE	P 20.5 F 19.9 EXPERIMENTAL V -- in progress PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes	Under 1.5 2 of 2	80.1%Under prob · Fangorn	70.6%no-vig	--	2+ Hitsline	0.861count	80.1%selected	4.1role	--form	--fit	FanDuel 240 avg 1 books
09	Jake MangumPIT	PIT vs CLE	P 24.6 F 22.2 EXPERIMENTAL V -- in progress PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes	Under 1.5 2 of 2	77.8%Under prob · Fangorn	66.7%no-vig	--	2+ Hitsline	0.963count	77.8%selected	3.91role	--form	--fit	FanDuel 200 avg 1 books
10	Brandon LowePIT	PIT vs CLE	P 17.6 F 15.2 EXPERIMENTAL V -- in progress PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes	Under 1.5 2 of 2	84.8%Under prob · Fangorn	73.7%no-vig	--	2+ Hitsline	0.788count	84.8%selected	3.98role	--form	--fit	FanDuel 280 avg 1 books
11	Ryan O'HearnPIT	PIT vs CLE	P 21.0 F 22.8 EXPERIMENTAL V -- in progress PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes	Under 1.5 2 of 2	77.2%Under prob · Fangorn	72.2%no-vig	--	2+ Hitsline	0.875count	77.2%selected	3.96role	--form	--fit	FanDuel 260 avg 1 books
12	Austin RileyATL	ATL vs TEX	P 28.1 F 28.7 EXPERIMENTAL V -- in progress PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes	Over 0.5 1 of 2	28.7%Over prob · Fangorn	63.6%no-vig	--	1+ Hitline	1.045count	28.7%selected	4.24role	--form	--fit	FanDuel 330 avg 1 books
13	Wyatt LangfordTEX	TEX vs ATL	P 21.2 F 21.2 EXPERIMENTAL V -- in progress PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes	Under 1.5 2 of 2	78.8%Under prob · Fangorn	74.4%no-vig	--	2+ Hitsline	0.874count	78.8%selected	4.67role	--form	--fit	FanDuel 290 avg 1 books
14	Sal FrelickMIL	MIL vs MIA	P 20.2 F 18.4 EXPERIMENTAL V -- in progress PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes	Under 1.5 2 of 2	81.6%Under prob · Fangorn	76.2%no-vig	--	2+ Hitsline	0.854count	81.6%selected	3.65role	--form	--fit	FanDuel 320 avg 1 books
15	Jake BurgerTEX	TEX vs ATL	P 18.9 F 21.3 EXPERIMENTAL V -- in progress PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes	Under 1.5 2 of 2	78.7%Under prob · Fangorn	78.3%no-vig	--	2+ Hitsline	0.822count	78.7%selected	4.21role	--form	--fit	FanDuel 360 avg 1 books
16	Ozzie AlbiesATL	ATL vs TEX	P 29.1 F 27.9 EXPERIMENTAL V -- in progress PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes	Under 1.5 2 of 2	72.1%Under prob · Fangorn	68.8%no-vig	--	2+ Hitsline	1.068count	72.1%selected	4.41role	--form	--fit	FanDuel 220 avg 1 books
17	Matt OlsonATL	ATL vs TEX	P 31.2 F 32.4 EXPERIMENTAL V -- in progress PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes	Over 0.5 1 of 2	32.4%Over prob · Fangorn	69.7%no-vig	--	1+ Hitline	1.119count	32.4%selected	4.74role	--form	--fit	FanDuel 230 avg 1 books
18	Christian YelichMIL	MIL vs MIA	P 29.5 F 31.9 EXPERIMENTAL V -- in progress PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes	Over 1.5 2 of 2	31.9%Over prob · Fangorn	27.8%no-vig	--	2+ Hitsline	1.079count	31.9%selected	4.62role	--form	--fit	FanDuel 260 avg 1 books
19	William ContrerasMIL	MIL vs MIA	P 29.1 F 28.5 EXPERIMENTAL V -- in progress PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes	Under 1.5 2 of 2	71.5%Under prob · Fangorn	69.7%no-vig	--	2+ Hitsline	1.07count	71.5%selected	4.45role	--form	--fit	FanDuel 230 avg 1 books
20	Brice TurangMIL	MIL vs MIA	P 29.4 F 28.8 EXPERIMENTAL V -- in progress PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes	Under 0.5 1 of 2	71.2%Under prob · Fangorn	29.4%no-vig	--	1+ Hitline	1.075count	71.2%selected	4.73role	--form	--fit	FanDuel 240 avg 1 books