Mithrandir Metrics
TEX 2026-07-17 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-17

Evan Carter

TEX · Hitter · bats L · age 24
IN · 6 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupTEX vs ATL--
Sample623.0career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases --
Total Bases · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Hits 0.5
P 98.0
F 98.0 EXPERIMENTAL
V -- in progress
PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes
Model 98.0% Market -- Gap +31.0pp
FanDuel 600 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.0%
34
Exit velocity84.8
16
Hard-hit%37.5%
44
xBA0.283
16
xSLG0.471
35
xwOBA0.294
37 -25 vs proj
BB%12.9%
89 +30 vs proj
Bat speed68.3
31
K%25.2%
35 -21 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.1 · CF
19
Arm Strength91.1 · CF
30
Outs Above Avg7.0 · CF
98
Range Runs6.1 · CF
95
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs2.5 · CF
91
Bolts24.0 · CF
84
SB Success Rate90.9% · CF
81
Sprint Speed28.9 · CF
89
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 75.4%
94
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.3%
29
Correct Decisions70.0%
85
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline108
84
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.295 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.262 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.253
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.336 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.328
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.353
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.278 to 0.344
RegressionNegative · -0.007
Opposing pitcher--
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-17
Palantir 9390 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 9390 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.012 14d stable
Valinor 3795 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.007 14d stable
Palantir 453 props Brier 0.245 ECE 0.004 sample building
Fangorn 18 props Brier 0.243 ECE 0.080 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 3223 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.103 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 137 props Brier 0.153 ECE 0.025 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 328 props Brier 0.265 ECE 0.083 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)