Public Model Surface

Fangorn Model - 2026-07-03

Random Forest engine built to identify nonlinear home run market gaps.

Fangorn is the sharp decision layer within the Mithrandir model system.

View Core Board Parlay Overlay Standard Confidence View Open Artifacts

Fangorn Snapshot

Slate 2026-07-03

Core 4

Select 2

Conviction 2

Parlay Overlay 0

← 2026-07-04 2026-07-02 →

Lane Health 2026-07-17

Palantir 9390 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.010 14d stable

Fangorn 9390 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.012 14d stable

Valinor 3795 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.007 14d stable

Daily Focus

Fangorn Top Signals Today

The cleanest at-a-glance Fangorn reads for today’s slate, separated by safest consensus, upside, and parlay utility.

Best Consensus Play

No qualifying play

No High Agreement Fangorn play qualified today. | --

Mixed Read Lean

This slot does not have a qualifying Fangorn play on the current slate.

Best Upside Play

No qualifying play

No Breakout Divergence Fangorn play qualified today. | --

Mixed Read Lean

This slot does not have a qualifying Fangorn play on the current slate.

Best Parlay Piece

Jonathan Aranda

TB vs HOU | +655

Mixed Read Lean

Calibrated Prob 26.0%

Market Gap 12.7%

Today's Fangorn Board: 0 High Agreement 0 Upside Signals 8 Mixed Reads 0 Caution Flags

Daily Fangorn Boards

Home Run Picks

Shareable daily HR picks from the Random Forest engine, organized by how the internal strategy layer actually uses them.

Agreement Overlay

How to read the model tags

These tags show how the broader HR model stack reads each Fangorn pick idea. Consensus tags are steadier, upside tags are sharper, and caution tags mean the models are split.

Consensus Support Supported Mixed Read Upside Signal Caution

Research Compare Mode

Confidence display comparison

Hybrid confidence is the current blended view. Anchored confidence keeps RF as the decision engine while adjusting toward binary-event truth from the logistic classifier.

Core

Top 10 singles by calibrated Fangorn probability.

Grouped Ideas 4 Market Rows 10 Artifact

Jonathan Aranda

TB vs HOU | vs Spencer Arrighetti

1+ HR Over Standard Play 0.75 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 3 books Batting 3

Calibrated Prob 26.0%

Market Gap 12.7%

Confidence Strong Zone

Hybrid Confidence 24.7% Adjusted from 26.0% model read

Playable

Anchored Confidence 26.0% RF-safe adjusted toward 0.0% binary-event truth

Playable

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 1.2% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Moderate Damage Neutral Trust

Strong Zone look against Spencer Arrighetti, with batting 3 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

DraftKings Best +655 26.0% 12.7% Strong Zone

FanDuel +655 26.0% 12.7% Strong Zone

BetMGM +650 26.0% 12.6% Strong Zone

Yandy Díaz

TB vs HOU | vs Spencer Arrighetti

1+ HR Over Standard Play 0.75 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 3 books Batting 2

Calibrated Prob 26.0%

Market Gap 11.2%

Confidence Strong Zone

Hybrid Confidence 25.0% Adjusted from 26.0% model read

Playable

Anchored Confidence 26.0% RF-safe adjusted toward 0.0% binary-event truth

Playable

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 1.0% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Moderate Damage Neutral Trust

Strong Zone look against Spencer Arrighetti, with batting 2 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

FanDuel Best +575 26.0% 11.2% Strong Zone

BetMGM +570 26.0% 11.0% Strong Zone

DraftKings +570 26.0% 11.0% Strong Zone

Bo Bichette

NYM vs ATL | vs Grant Holmes

1+ HR Over Caution Play 0.25 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 3 books Batting 3

Calibrated Prob 17.9%

Market Gap 5.8%

Confidence Watch Zone

Hybrid Confidence 18.4% Adjusted from 17.9% model read

Risky

Anchored Confidence 17.9% RF-safe adjusted toward 0.0% binary-event truth

Risky

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 0.4% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Strong Damage Neutral Trust

Watch Zone look against Grant Holmes, with batting 3 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

DraftKings Best +725 17.9% 5.8% Watch Zone

BetMGM +720 17.9% 5.7% Watch Zone

FanDuel +720 17.9% 5.7% Watch Zone

Elly De La Cruz

CIN vs BAL | vs Trevor Rogers

#10

1+ HR Over Caution Play 0.25 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 1 book Batting 1

Calibrated Prob 17.9%

Market Gap 2.3%

Confidence Watch Zone

Hybrid Confidence 18.7% Adjusted from 17.9% model read

Risky

Anchored Confidence 17.9% RF-safe adjusted toward 0.0% binary-event truth

Risky

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 0.8% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Caution Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.

Damage Moderate Damage Neutral Trust

Watch Zone look against Trevor Rogers, with batting 1 and a hitter-friendly run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

FanDuel Best +540 17.9% 2.3% Watch Zone

Select

Best edge-driven HR looks from the Fangorn stack.

Grouped Ideas 2 Market Rows 5 Artifact

Jonathan Aranda

TB vs HOU | vs Spencer Arrighetti

1+ HR Over Standard Play 0.75 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 3 books Batting 3

Calibrated Prob 26.0%

Market Gap 12.7%

Confidence Strong Zone

Hybrid Confidence 24.7% Adjusted from 26.0% model read

Playable

Anchored Confidence 26.0% RF-safe adjusted toward 0.0% binary-event truth

Playable

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 1.2% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Moderate Damage Neutral Trust

Strong Zone look against Spencer Arrighetti, with batting 3 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

DraftKings Best +655 26.0% 12.7% Strong Zone

FanDuel +655 26.0% 12.7% Strong Zone

BetMGM +650 26.0% 12.6% Strong Zone

Yandy Díaz

TB vs HOU | vs Spencer Arrighetti

1+ HR Over Standard Play 0.75 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 2 books Batting 2

Calibrated Prob 26.0%

Market Gap 11.2%

Confidence Strong Zone

Hybrid Confidence 25.0% Adjusted from 26.0% model read

Playable

Anchored Confidence 26.0% RF-safe adjusted toward 0.0% binary-event truth

Playable

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 1.0% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Moderate Damage Neutral Trust

Strong Zone look against Spencer Arrighetti, with batting 2 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

FanDuel Best +575 26.0% 11.2% Strong Zone

DraftKings +570 26.0% 11.0% Strong Zone

Conviction

Highest-conviction filtered HR singles from the current Fangorn layer.

Grouped Ideas 2 Market Rows 4 Artifact

Jonathan Aranda

TB vs HOU | vs Spencer Arrighetti

1+ HR Over Standard Play 0.75 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 1 book Batting 3

Calibrated Prob 26.0%

Market Gap 12.6%

Confidence Strong Zone

Hybrid Confidence 24.7% Adjusted from 26.0% model read

Playable

Anchored Confidence 26.0% RF-safe adjusted toward 0.0% binary-event truth

Playable

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 1.2% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Moderate Damage Neutral Trust

Strong Zone look against Spencer Arrighetti, with batting 3 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

BetMGM Best +650 26.0% 12.6% Strong Zone

Yandy Díaz

TB vs HOU | vs Spencer Arrighetti

1+ HR Over Standard Play 0.75 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 3 books Batting 2

Calibrated Prob 26.0%

Market Gap 11.2%

Confidence Strong Zone

Hybrid Confidence 25.0% Adjusted from 26.0% model read

Playable

Anchored Confidence 26.0% RF-safe adjusted toward 0.0% binary-event truth

Playable

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 1.0% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Moderate Damage Neutral Trust

Strong Zone look against Spencer Arrighetti, with batting 2 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

FanDuel Best +575 26.0% 11.2% Strong Zone

BetMGM +570 26.0% 11.0% Strong Zone

DraftKings +570 26.0% 11.0% Strong Zone

Overlay

Parlay Overlay

Best distinct two-leg Fangorn HR parlay concepts from the saved overlay artifact.

Artifact

No Fangorn parlay overlay was saved for this slate.