Public Model Surface

Fangorn Model - 2026-06-13

Random Forest engine built to identify nonlinear home run market gaps.

Fangorn is the sharp decision layer within the Mithrandir model system.

View Core Board Parlay Overlay Standard Confidence View Open Artifacts

Fangorn Snapshot

Slate 2026-06-13

Core 4

Select 2

Conviction 2

Parlay Overlay 1

2026-06-12 →

Lane Health 2026-06-12

Palantir 5214 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.004 14d stable

Fangorn 5214 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.010 14d stable

Valinor 1176 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.013 sample building

Daily Focus

Fangorn Top Signals Today

The cleanest at-a-glance Fangorn reads for today’s slate, separated by safest consensus, upside, and parlay utility.

Best Consensus Play

No qualifying play

No High Agreement Fangorn play qualified today. | --

Mixed Read Lean

This slot does not have a qualifying Fangorn play on the current slate.

Best Upside Play

No qualifying play

No Breakout Divergence Fangorn play qualified today. | --

Mixed Read Lean

This slot does not have a qualifying Fangorn play on the current slate.

Best Parlay Piece

Bo Bichette

NYM vs ATL | +695

Mixed Read Lean

Calibrated Prob 26.0%

Market Gap 13.4%

Today's Fangorn Board: 0 High Agreement 0 Upside Signals 8 Mixed Reads 0 Caution Flags

Daily Fangorn Boards

Home Run Picks

Shareable daily HR picks from the Random Forest engine, organized by how the internal strategy layer actually uses them.

Agreement Overlay

How to read the model tags

These tags show how the broader HR model stack reads each Fangorn pick idea. Consensus tags are steadier, upside tags are sharper, and caution tags mean the models are split.

Consensus Support Supported Mixed Read Upside Signal Caution

Research Compare Mode

Confidence display comparison

Hybrid confidence is the current blended view. Anchored confidence keeps RF as the decision engine while adjusting toward binary-event truth from the logistic classifier.

Core

Top 10 singles by calibrated Fangorn probability.

Grouped Ideas 4 Market Rows 10 Artifact

Christian Yelich

MIL vs PHI | vs Aaron Nola

1+ HR Over Standard Play 0.75 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 3 books Batting 2

Calibrated Prob 26.0%

Market Gap 8.9%

Confidence Strong Zone

Hybrid Confidence 25.2% Adjusted from 26.0% model read

Playable

Anchored Confidence 26.0% RF-safe adjusted toward 0.0% binary-event truth

Playable

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 0.8% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Moderate Damage Neutral Trust

Strong Zone look against Aaron Nola, with batting 2 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

FanDuel Best +485 26.0% 8.9% Strong Zone

BetMGM +480 26.0% 8.7% Strong Zone

DraftKings +480 26.0% 8.7% Strong Zone

James Wood

WSH vs SEA | vs Luis Castillo

1+ HR Over Standard Play 0.75 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 3 books Batting 2

Calibrated Prob 26.0%

Market Gap 8.9%

Confidence Strong Zone

Hybrid Confidence 25.2% Adjusted from 26.0% model read

Playable

Anchored Confidence 26.0% RF-safe adjusted toward 0.0% binary-event truth

Playable

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 0.8% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Moderate Damage Neutral Trust

Strong Zone look against Luis Castillo, with batting 2 and a hitter-friendly run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

FanDuel Best +485 26.0% 8.9% Strong Zone

BetMGM +475 26.0% 8.6% Strong Zone

DraftKings +475 26.0% 8.6% Strong Zone

Jahmai Jones

DET vs CLE | vs Joey Cantillo

1+ HR Over Standard Play 0.75 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 3 books Batting 2

Calibrated Prob 26.0%

Market Gap 11.8%

Confidence Strong Zone

Hybrid Confidence 24.9% Adjusted from 26.0% model read

Playable

Anchored Confidence 26.0% RF-safe adjusted toward 0.0% binary-event truth

Playable

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 1.0% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Elite Damage Neutral Trust

Strong Zone look against Joey Cantillo, with batting 2 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

FanDuel Best +605 26.0% 11.8% Strong Zone

BetMGM +600 26.0% 11.7% Strong Zone

DraftKings +600 26.0% 11.7% Strong Zone

Elly De La Cruz

CIN vs AZ | vs Michael Soroka

#10

1+ HR Over Standard Play 0.75 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 1 book Batting 1

Calibrated Prob 26.0%

Market Gap 10.3%

Confidence Strong Zone

Hybrid Confidence 25.5% Adjusted from 26.0% model read

Playable

Anchored Confidence 26.0% RF-safe adjusted toward 0.0% binary-event truth

Playable

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 0.4% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Caution Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.

Damage Moderate Damage Neutral Trust

Strong Zone look against Michael Soroka, with batting 1 and a hitter-friendly run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

FanDuel Best +540 26.0% 10.3% Strong Zone

Select

Best edge-driven HR looks from the Fangorn stack.

Grouped Ideas 2 Market Rows 5 Artifact

Bo Bichette

NYM vs ATL | vs Martín Pérez

1+ HR Over Standard Play 0.75 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 3 books Batting 3

Calibrated Prob 26.0%

Market Gap 13.4%

Confidence Strong Zone

Hybrid Confidence 25.1% Adjusted from 26.0% model read

Playable

Anchored Confidence 26.0% RF-safe adjusted toward 0.0% binary-event truth

Playable

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 0.9% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Moderate Damage Neutral Trust

Strong Zone look against Martín Pérez, with batting 3 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

DraftKings Best +695 26.0% 13.4% Strong Zone

FanDuel +695 26.0% 13.4% Strong Zone

BetMGM +690 26.0% 13.3% Strong Zone

Jahmai Jones

DET vs CLE | vs Joey Cantillo

1+ HR Over Standard Play 0.75 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 2 books Batting 2

Calibrated Prob 26.0%

Market Gap 11.8%

Confidence Strong Zone

Hybrid Confidence 24.9% Adjusted from 26.0% model read

Playable

Anchored Confidence 26.0% RF-safe adjusted toward 0.0% binary-event truth

Playable

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 1.0% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Elite Damage Neutral Trust

Strong Zone look against Joey Cantillo, with batting 2 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

FanDuel Best +605 26.0% 11.8% Strong Zone

DraftKings +600 26.0% 11.7% Strong Zone

Conviction

Highest-conviction filtered HR singles from the current Fangorn layer.

Grouped Ideas 2 Market Rows 5 Artifact

Christian Yelich

MIL vs PHI | vs Aaron Nola

1+ HR Over Standard Play 0.75 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 3 books Batting 2

Calibrated Prob 26.0%

Market Gap 8.9%

Confidence Strong Zone

Hybrid Confidence 25.2% Adjusted from 26.0% model read

Playable

Anchored Confidence 26.0% RF-safe adjusted toward 0.0% binary-event truth

Playable

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 0.8% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Moderate Damage Neutral Trust

Strong Zone look against Aaron Nola, with batting 2 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

FanDuel Best +485 26.0% 8.9% Strong Zone

BetMGM +480 26.0% 8.7% Strong Zone

DraftKings +480 26.0% 8.7% Strong Zone

James Wood

WSH vs SEA | vs Luis Castillo

1+ HR Over Standard Play 0.75 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 2 books Batting 2

Calibrated Prob 26.0%

Market Gap 8.9%

Confidence Strong Zone

Hybrid Confidence 25.2% Adjusted from 26.0% model read

Playable

Anchored Confidence 26.0% RF-safe adjusted toward 0.0% binary-event truth

Playable

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 0.8% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Moderate Damage Neutral Trust

Strong Zone look against Luis Castillo, with batting 2 and a hitter-friendly run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

FanDuel Best +485 26.0% 8.9% Strong Zone

DraftKings +475 26.0% 8.6% Strong Zone

Overlay

Parlay Overlay

Best distinct two-leg Fangorn HR parlay concepts from the saved overlay artifact.

Artifact

Parlay 1

Neutral

Christian Yelich MIL vs PHI | +485 26.0% | Strong Zone

James Wood WSH vs SEA | +485 26.0% | Strong Zone

Joint Prob 6.7%

Joint Gap 3.8%

Structure Distinct Games