{
  "date": "2026-06-13",
  "generated_at": "2026-06-12T23:33:39.672554",
  "artifact_type": "hr_parlay_overlay",
  "source_artifact_path": "outputs/betting/home_run_edges/2026-06-13/home_run_edges_2026-06-13.json",
  "summary": {
    "candidate_count": 1,
    "selection_logic": "best_distinct_2_leg_hr_parlays_from_filtered_pool",
    "filters": {
      "min_probability": 0.2,
      "min_edge": 0.05,
      "max_odds": 700.0,
      "max_lineup_slot": 7,
      "max_pool": 6
    }
  },
  "parlays": [
    {
      "legs": [
        {
          "board_type": "hr_parlay_leg",
          "rank": 1,
          "hitter_name": "Christian Yelich",
          "hitter_id": 592885,
          "team_abbr": "MIL",
          "opponent_abbr": "PHI",
          "pitcher_name": "Aaron Nola",
          "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
          "over_odds": 485,
          "expected_home_runs": 0.2461,
          "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2182,
          "projected_home_runs_palantir": 22.69,
          "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597,
          "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2182,
          "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2522,
          "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null,
          "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.2597,
          "hr_prob_refined": 0.2514,
          "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2436,
          "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2675,
          "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597,
          "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2398,
          "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable",
          "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus",
          "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT",
          "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support",
          "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2,
          "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT",
          "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift",
          "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.2514,
          "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE",
          "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure",
          "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift",
          "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.",
          "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE",
          "damage_label": "Moderate Damage",
          "damage_score": 1,
          "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5",
          "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.",
          "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY",
          "suppression_label": "Clear Runway",
          "suppression_score": 8,
          "suppression_reason_count": 1,
          "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.",
          "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST",
          "trust_label": "Neutral Trust",
          "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.",
          "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0888,
          "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0727,
          "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null,
          "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0888,
          "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%",
          "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone",
          "edge_over": 0.0473,
          "play_tier": "Play",
          "lineup_slot": 2,
          "confirmed_lineup_flag": false,
          "environment_summary": "neutral"
        },
        {
          "board_type": "hr_parlay_leg",
          "rank": 1,
          "hitter_name": "James Wood",
          "hitter_id": 695578,
          "team_abbr": "WSH",
          "opponent_abbr": "SEA",
          "pitcher_name": "Luis Castillo",
          "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
          "over_odds": 485,
          "expected_home_runs": 0.243,
          "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2157,
          "projected_home_runs_palantir": 22.57,
          "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597,
          "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2157,
          "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2518,
          "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null,
          "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.2597,
          "hr_prob_refined": 0.2509,
          "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2398,
          "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2658,
          "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597,
          "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2379,
          "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable",
          "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus",
          "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT",
          "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support",
          "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2,
          "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT",
          "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift",
          "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.2509,
          "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE",
          "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure",
          "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift",
          "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.",
          "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE",
          "damage_label": "Moderate Damage",
          "damage_score": 1,
          "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5",
          "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.",
          "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY",
          "suppression_label": "Clear Runway",
          "suppression_score": 8,
          "suppression_reason_count": 1,
          "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.",
          "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST",
          "trust_label": "Neutral Trust",
          "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.",
          "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0888,
          "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0689,
          "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null,
          "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0888,
          "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%",
          "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone",
          "edge_over": 0.0448,
          "play_tier": "Lean",
          "lineup_slot": 2,
          "confirmed_lineup_flag": false,
          "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly"
        }
      ],
      "joint_probability": 0.0674,
      "joint_implied_probability": 0.0292,
      "joint_edge": 0.0382,
      "correlation_tag": "Neutral",
      "same_game_dependency": false,
      "rank": 1
    }
  ]
}