Public Model Surface

Fangorn Model - 2026-05-21

Random Forest engine built to identify nonlinear home run market gaps.

Fangorn is the sharp decision layer within the Mithrandir model system.

View Core Board Parlay Overlay Research Confidence Compare Open Artifacts

Fangorn Snapshot

Slate 2026-05-21

Core 4

Select 2

Conviction 0

Parlay Overlay 0

← 2026-05-23 2026-05-17 →

Lane Health 2026-06-02

Palantir 3219 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.030 14d stable

Fangorn 3219 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.010 14d stable

Valinor 1176 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.013 14d error rising

Daily Focus

Fangorn Top Signals Today

The cleanest at-a-glance Fangorn reads for today’s slate, separated by safest consensus, upside, and parlay utility.

Best Consensus Play

No qualifying play

No High Agreement Fangorn play qualified today. | --

Mixed Read Lean

This slot does not have a qualifying Fangorn play on the current slate.

Best Upside Play

No qualifying play

No Breakout Divergence Fangorn play qualified today. | --

Mixed Read Lean

This slot does not have a qualifying Fangorn play on the current slate.

Best Parlay Piece

No qualifying play

No Fangorn play cleared the parlay-probability filter today. | --

Mixed Read Lean

This slot does not have a qualifying Fangorn play on the current slate.

Today's Fangorn Board: 0 High Agreement 0 Upside Signals 6 Mixed Reads 0 Caution Flags

Daily Fangorn Boards

Home Run Picks

Shareable daily HR picks from the Random Forest engine, organized by how the internal strategy layer actually uses them.

Agreement Overlay

How to read the model tags

These tags show how the broader HR model stack reads each Fangorn pick idea. Consensus tags are steadier, upside tags are sharper, and caution tags mean the models are split.

Consensus Support Supported Mixed Read Upside Signal Caution

Core

Top 10 singles by calibrated Fangorn probability.

Grouped Ideas 4 Market Rows 10 Artifact

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

TOR vs NYY | vs Carlos Rodón

1+ HR Over Caution Play 0.25 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 3 books Batting 2

Calibrated Prob 17.9%

Market Gap 0.5%

Confidence Watch Zone

Hybrid Confidence 18.7% Adjusted from 17.9% model read

Risky

Confidence Disagreement Moderate Disagreement 5.3% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Moderate Disagreement Reduced Exposure

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Moderate Damage Neutral Trust

Watch Zone look against Carlos Rodón, with batting 2 and a hitter-friendly run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

FanDuel Best +475 17.9% 0.5% Watch Zone

BetMGM +470 17.9% 0.4% Watch Zone

DraftKings +465 17.9% 0.2% Watch Zone

George Springer

TOR vs NYY | vs Carlos Rodón

1+ HR Over Caution Play 0.25 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 3 books Batting 1

Calibrated Prob 17.9%

Market Gap -0.3%

Confidence Watch Zone

Hybrid Confidence 18.5% Adjusted from 17.9% model read

Risky

Confidence Disagreement Moderate Disagreement 5.1% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Moderate Disagreement Reduced Exposure

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Moderate Damage Neutral Trust

Watch Zone look against Carlos Rodón, with batting 1 and a hitter-friendly run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

FanDuel Best +450 17.9% -0.3% Watch Zone

BetMGM +445 17.9% -0.4% Watch Zone

DraftKings +440 17.9% -0.6% Watch Zone

Yoán Moncada

LAA vs ATH | vs Luis Severino

1+ HR Over Caution Play 0.25 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 3 books Batting 6

Calibrated Prob 17.2%

Market Gap 4.0%

Confidence Watch Zone

Hybrid Confidence 17.2% Adjusted from 17.2% model read

Risky

Confidence Disagreement Moderate Disagreement 4.2% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Moderate Disagreement Reduced Exposure

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Moderate Damage Downgraded Trust

Watch Zone look against Luis Severino, with batting 6 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

FanDuel Best +655 17.2% 4.0% Watch Zone

BetMGM +650 17.2% 3.9% Watch Zone

DraftKings +650 17.2% 3.9% Watch Zone

Bo Bichette

NYM vs WSH | vs Cade Cavalli

#10

1+ HR Over Caution Play 0.25 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 1 book Batting 3

Calibrated Prob 17.2%

Market Gap 5.1%

Confidence Watch Zone

Hybrid Confidence 17.3% Adjusted from 17.2% model read

Risky

Confidence Disagreement Moderate Disagreement 4.3% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Moderate Disagreement Reduced Exposure

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Moderate Damage Neutral Trust

Watch Zone look against Cade Cavalli, with batting 3 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

DraftKings Best +725 17.2% 5.1% Watch Zone

Select

Best edge-driven HR looks from the Fangorn stack.

Grouped Ideas 2 Market Rows 5 Artifact

Bo Bichette

NYM vs WSH | vs Cade Cavalli

1+ HR Over Caution Play 0.25 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 3 books Batting 3

Calibrated Prob 17.2%

Market Gap 5.1%

Confidence Watch Zone

Hybrid Confidence 17.3% Adjusted from 17.2% model read

Risky

Confidence Disagreement Moderate Disagreement 4.3% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Moderate Disagreement Reduced Exposure

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Moderate Damage Neutral Trust

Watch Zone look against Cade Cavalli, with batting 3 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

DraftKings Best +725 17.2% 5.1% Watch Zone

BetMGM +720 17.2% 5.0% Watch Zone

FanDuel +720 17.2% 5.0% Watch Zone

Yoán Moncada

LAA vs ATH | vs Luis Severino

1+ HR Over Caution Play 0.25 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 2 books Batting 6

Calibrated Prob 17.2%

Market Gap 4.0%

Confidence Watch Zone

Hybrid Confidence 17.2% Adjusted from 17.2% model read

Risky

Confidence Disagreement Moderate Disagreement 4.2% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Moderate Disagreement Reduced Exposure

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Moderate Damage Downgraded Trust

Watch Zone look against Luis Severino, with batting 6 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

FanDuel Best +655 17.2% 4.0% Watch Zone

DraftKings +650 17.2% 3.9% Watch Zone

Conviction

Highest-conviction filtered HR singles from the current Fangorn layer.

Grouped Ideas 0 Artifact

No conviction Fangorn picks were saved for this slate.

Overlay

Parlay Overlay

Best distinct two-leg Fangorn HR parlay concepts from the saved overlay artifact.

Artifact

No Fangorn parlay overlay was saved for this slate.