{ "date": "2026-05-21", "generated_at": "2026-05-21T09:46:13.558201", "artifact_type": "hr_core_board", "source_artifact_path": "outputs\\betting\\home_run_edges\\2026-05-21\\home_run_edges_2026-05-21.json", "summary": { "board_size": 10, "selection_logic": "top_10_by_calibrated_rf_safe_probability" }, "rows": [ { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 1, "hitter_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.", "hitter_id": 665489, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Carlos Rod\u00f3n", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 475, "expected_home_runs": 0.2379, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2117, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 16.67, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2132, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1873, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0007, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_refined": 0.07, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1467, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2284, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1995, 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"sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 655, "expected_home_runs": 0.1734, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1592, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 3.99, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1701, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1715, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1292, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0601, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.074, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1875, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1631, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0597, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model 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"hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1631, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0597, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 50, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0388, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0593, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1328, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0041, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0259, "play_tier": "Lean", "lineup_slot": 6, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 10, "hitter_name": "Bo Bichette", "hitter_id": 666182, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "over_odds": 725, "expected_home_runs": 0.173, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1589, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 9.33, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1736, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1726, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1292, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0607, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1089, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1836, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1599, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0604, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 28, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, tough contact allowance.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0509, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0123, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1209, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.008, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0377, "play_tier": "Lean", "lineup_slot": 3, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" } ] }