Public Model Surface

Fangorn Model - 2026-05-14

Random Forest engine built to identify nonlinear home run market gaps.

Fangorn is the sharp decision layer within the Mithrandir model system.

View Core Board Parlay Overlay Research Confidence Compare Open Artifacts

Fangorn Snapshot

Slate 2026-05-14

Core 4

Select 2

Conviction 2

Parlay Overlay 1

← 2026-05-17 2026-05-07 →

Lane Health 2026-06-02

Palantir 3219 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.030 14d stable

Fangorn 3219 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.010 14d stable

Valinor 1176 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.013 14d error rising

Daily Focus

Fangorn Top Signals Today

The cleanest at-a-glance Fangorn reads for today’s slate, separated by safest consensus, upside, and parlay utility.

Best Consensus Play

No qualifying play

No High Agreement Fangorn play qualified today. | --

Mixed Read Lean

This slot does not have a qualifying Fangorn play on the current slate.

Best Upside Play

No qualifying play

No Breakout Divergence Fangorn play qualified today. | --

Mixed Read Lean

This slot does not have a qualifying Fangorn play on the current slate.

Best Parlay Piece

Iván Herrera

STL vs ATH | +635

Mixed Read Lean

Calibrated Prob 26.0%

Market Gap 12.4%

Today's Fangorn Board: 0 High Agreement 0 Upside Signals 8 Mixed Reads 0 Caution Flags

Daily Fangorn Boards

Home Run Picks

Shareable daily HR picks from the Random Forest engine, organized by how the internal strategy layer actually uses them.

Agreement Overlay

How to read the model tags

These tags show how the broader HR model stack reads each Fangorn pick idea. Consensus tags are steadier, upside tags are sharper, and caution tags mean the models are split.

Consensus Support Supported Mixed Read Upside Signal Caution

Core

Top 10 singles by calibrated Fangorn probability.

Grouped Ideas 4 Market Rows 10 Artifact

Iván Herrera

STL vs ATH | vs Jacob Lopez

1+ HR Over Standard Play 0.75 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 3 books Batting 2

Calibrated Prob 26.0%

Market Gap 12.4%

Confidence Strong Zone

Hybrid Confidence 25.4% Adjusted from 26.0% model read

Playable

Confidence Disagreement Moderate Disagreement 5.9% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Moderate Disagreement Reduced Exposure

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Moderate Damage Neutral Trust

Strong Zone look against Jacob Lopez, with batting 2 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

FanDuel Best +635 26.0% 12.4% Strong Zone

BetMGM +630 26.0% 12.3% Strong Zone

DraftKings +630 26.0% 12.3% Strong Zone

Christian Yelich

MIL vs SD | vs Griffin Canning

1+ HR Over Standard Play 0.75 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 3 books Batting 2

Calibrated Prob 26.0%

Market Gap 8.9%

Confidence Strong Zone

Hybrid Confidence 25.6% Adjusted from 26.0% model read

Playable

Confidence Disagreement Moderate Disagreement 6.1% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Moderate Disagreement Reduced Exposure

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Moderate Damage Neutral Trust

Strong Zone look against Griffin Canning, with batting 2 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

FanDuel Best +485 26.0% 8.9% Strong Zone

BetMGM +480 26.0% 8.7% Strong Zone

DraftKings +480 26.0% 8.7% Strong Zone

Tyler Soderstrom

ATH vs STL | vs Michael McGreevy

1+ HR Over Standard Play 0.75 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 3 books Batting 5

Calibrated Prob 26.0%

Market Gap 11.4%

Confidence Strong Zone

Hybrid Confidence 25.1% Adjusted from 26.0% model read

Playable

Confidence Disagreement Moderate Disagreement 5.6% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Moderate Disagreement Reduced Exposure

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Moderate Damage Neutral Trust

Strong Zone look against Michael McGreevy, with batting 5 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

FanDuel Best +585 26.0% 11.4% Strong Zone

BetMGM +580 26.0% 11.3% Strong Zone

DraftKings +580 26.0% 11.3% Strong Zone

Lawrence Butler

ATH vs STL | vs Michael McGreevy

#10

1+ HR Over Standard Play 0.75 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 1 book Batting 4

Calibrated Prob 19.6%

Market Gap 4.1%

Confidence Watch Zone

Hybrid Confidence 20.4% Adjusted from 19.6% model read

Playable

Confidence Disagreement Moderate Disagreement 5.7% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Moderate Disagreement Reduced Exposure

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Moderate Damage Neutral Trust

Watch Zone look against Michael McGreevy, with batting 4 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

FanDuel Best +545 19.6% 4.1% Watch Zone

Select

Best edge-driven HR looks from the Fangorn stack.

Grouped Ideas 2 Market Rows 5 Artifact

Iván Herrera

STL vs ATH | vs Jacob Lopez

1+ HR Over Standard Play 0.75 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 3 books Batting 2

Calibrated Prob 26.0%

Market Gap 12.4%

Confidence Strong Zone

Hybrid Confidence 25.4% Adjusted from 26.0% model read

Playable

Confidence Disagreement Moderate Disagreement 5.9% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Moderate Disagreement Reduced Exposure

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Moderate Damage Neutral Trust

Strong Zone look against Jacob Lopez, with batting 2 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

FanDuel Best +635 26.0% 12.4% Strong Zone

BetMGM +630 26.0% 12.3% Strong Zone

DraftKings +630 26.0% 12.3% Strong Zone

Tyler Soderstrom

ATH vs STL | vs Michael McGreevy

1+ HR Over Standard Play 0.75 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 2 books Batting 5

Calibrated Prob 26.0%

Market Gap 11.4%

Confidence Strong Zone

Hybrid Confidence 25.1% Adjusted from 26.0% model read

Playable

Confidence Disagreement Moderate Disagreement 5.6% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Moderate Disagreement Reduced Exposure

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Moderate Damage Neutral Trust

Strong Zone look against Michael McGreevy, with batting 5 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

FanDuel Best +585 26.0% 11.4% Strong Zone

DraftKings +580 26.0% 11.3% Strong Zone

Conviction

Highest-conviction filtered HR singles from the current Fangorn layer.

Grouped Ideas 2 Market Rows 5 Artifact

Iván Herrera

STL vs ATH | vs Jacob Lopez

1+ HR Over Standard Play 0.75 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 3 books Batting 2

Calibrated Prob 26.0%

Market Gap 12.4%

Confidence Strong Zone

Hybrid Confidence 25.4% Adjusted from 26.0% model read

Playable

Confidence Disagreement Moderate Disagreement 5.9% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Moderate Disagreement Reduced Exposure

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Moderate Damage Neutral Trust

Strong Zone look against Jacob Lopez, with batting 2 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

FanDuel Best +635 26.0% 12.4% Strong Zone

BetMGM +630 26.0% 12.3% Strong Zone

DraftKings +630 26.0% 12.3% Strong Zone

Christian Yelich

MIL vs SD | vs Griffin Canning

1+ HR Over Standard Play 0.75 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 2 books Batting 2

Calibrated Prob 26.0%

Market Gap 8.9%

Confidence Strong Zone

Hybrid Confidence 25.6% Adjusted from 26.0% model read

Playable

Confidence Disagreement Moderate Disagreement 6.1% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Moderate Disagreement Reduced Exposure

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Moderate Damage Neutral Trust

Strong Zone look against Griffin Canning, with batting 2 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

FanDuel Best +485 26.0% 8.9% Strong Zone

DraftKings +480 26.0% 8.7% Strong Zone

Overlay

Parlay Overlay

Best distinct two-leg Fangorn HR parlay concepts from the saved overlay artifact.

Artifact

Parlay 1

Neutral

Iván Herrera STL vs ATH | +635 26.0% | Strong Zone

Christian Yelich MIL vs SD | +485 26.0% | Strong Zone

Joint Prob 6.7%

Joint Gap 4.4%

Structure Distinct Games