Public Model Surface

Fangorn Model - 2026-04-28

Random Forest engine built to identify nonlinear home run market gaps.

Fangorn is the sharp decision layer within the Mithrandir model system.

View Core Board Parlay Overlay Research Confidence Compare Open Artifacts

Fangorn Snapshot

Slate 2026-04-28

Core 4

Select 2

Conviction 1

Parlay Overlay 0

← 2026-04-30 2026-04-22 →

Lane Health 2026-10-01

Palantir 22104 props Brier 0.119 ECE 0.004 14d error falling

Fangorn 22104 props Brier 0.119 ECE 0.004 14d error falling

Valinor 16416 props Brier 0.115 ECE 0.002 14d error falling

Daily Focus

Fangorn Top Signals Today

The cleanest at-a-glance Fangorn reads for today’s slate, separated by safest consensus, upside, and parlay utility.

Best Consensus Play

No qualifying play

No High Agreement Fangorn play qualified today. | --

Mixed Read Lean

This slot does not have a qualifying Fangorn play on the current slate.

Best Upside Play

No qualifying play

No Breakout Divergence Fangorn play qualified today. | --

Mixed Read Lean

This slot does not have a qualifying Fangorn play on the current slate.

Best Parlay Piece

Jahmai Jones

DET vs ATL | +605

Mixed Read Lean

Calibrated Prob 26.0%

Market Gap 11.8%

Today's Fangorn Board: 0 High Agreement 0 Upside Signals 7 Mixed Reads 0 Caution Flags

Daily Fangorn Boards

Home Run Picks

Shareable daily HR picks from the Random Forest engine, organized by how the internal strategy layer actually uses them.

Agreement Overlay

How to read the model tags

These tags show how the broader HR model stack reads each Fangorn pick idea. Consensus tags are steadier, upside tags are sharper, and caution tags mean the models are split.

Consensus Support Supported Mixed Read Upside Signal Caution

Core

Top 10 singles by calibrated Fangorn probability.

Grouped Ideas 4 Market Rows 10 Artifact

Jahmai Jones

DET vs ATL | vs Martín Pérez

1+ HR Over Standard Play 0.75 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 3 books Batting 2

Calibrated Prob 26.0%

Market Gap 11.8%

Confidence Strong Zone

Hybrid Confidence 25.0% Adjusted from 26.0% model read

Playable

Confidence Disagreement Moderate Disagreement 5.5% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Moderate Disagreement Reduced Exposure

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Moderate Damage Neutral Trust

Strong Zone look against Martín Pérez, with batting 2 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

FanDuel Best +605 26.0% 11.8% Strong Zone

BetMGM +600 26.0% 11.7% Strong Zone

DraftKings +600 26.0% 11.7% Strong Zone

Jonathan Aranda

TB vs CLE | vs Tanner Bibee

1+ HR Over Caution Play 0.25 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 3 books Batting 3

Calibrated Prob 17.9%

Market Gap 4.7%

Confidence Watch Zone

Hybrid Confidence 18.2% Adjusted from 17.9% model read

Risky

Confidence Disagreement Moderate Disagreement 4.7% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Moderate Disagreement Reduced Exposure

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Moderate Damage Neutral Trust

Watch Zone look against Tanner Bibee, with batting 3 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

DraftKings Best +655 17.9% 4.7% Watch Zone

FanDuel +655 17.9% 4.7% Watch Zone

BetMGM +650 17.9% 4.6% Watch Zone

Yandy Díaz

TB vs CLE | vs Tanner Bibee

1+ HR Over Caution Play 0.25 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 3 books Batting 2

Calibrated Prob 17.9%

Market Gap 3.1%

Confidence Watch Zone

Hybrid Confidence 18.7% Adjusted from 17.9% model read

Risky

Confidence Disagreement Moderate Disagreement 5.3% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Moderate Disagreement Reduced Exposure

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Moderate Damage Neutral Trust

Watch Zone look against Tanner Bibee, with batting 2 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

FanDuel Best +575 17.9% 3.1% Watch Zone

BetMGM +570 17.9% 3.0% Watch Zone

DraftKings +570 17.9% 3.0% Watch Zone

Spencer Torkelson

DET vs ATL | vs Martín Pérez

#10

1+ HR Over Caution Play 0.25 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 1 book Batting 5

Calibrated Prob 17.9%

Market Gap 0.5%

Confidence Watch Zone

Hybrid Confidence 18.5% Adjusted from 17.9% model read

Risky

Confidence Disagreement Moderate Disagreement 5.1% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Moderate Disagreement Reduced Exposure

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Moderate Damage Neutral Trust

Watch Zone look against Martín Pérez, with batting 5 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

FanDuel Best +475 17.9% 0.5% Watch Zone

Select

Largest model-market HR gaps from the Fangorn stack.

Grouped Ideas 2 Market Rows 5 Artifact

Jahmai Jones

DET vs ATL | vs Martín Pérez

1+ HR Over Standard Play 0.75 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 3 books Batting 2

Calibrated Prob 26.0%

Market Gap 11.8%

Confidence Strong Zone

Hybrid Confidence 25.0% Adjusted from 26.0% model read

Playable

Confidence Disagreement Moderate Disagreement 5.5% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Moderate Disagreement Reduced Exposure

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Moderate Damage Neutral Trust

Strong Zone look against Martín Pérez, with batting 2 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

FanDuel Best +605 26.0% 11.8% Strong Zone

BetMGM +600 26.0% 11.7% Strong Zone

DraftKings +600 26.0% 11.7% Strong Zone

Geraldo Perdomo

AZ vs MIL | vs Chad Patrick

1+ HR Over Caution Play 0.25 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 2 books Batting 3

Calibrated Prob 15.7%

Market Gap 6.1%

Confidence Watch Zone

Hybrid Confidence 15.7% Adjusted from 15.7% model read

Risky

Confidence Disagreement Moderate Disagreement 3.8% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Moderate Disagreement Reduced Exposure

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Moderate Damage Neutral Trust

Watch Zone look against Chad Patrick, with batting 3 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

DraftKings Best +935 15.7% 6.1% Watch Zone

BetMGM +920 15.7% 5.9% Watch Zone

Conviction

Highest-conviction filtered HR singles from the current Fangorn layer.

Grouped Ideas 1 Market Rows 3 Artifact

Jahmai Jones

DET vs ATL | vs Martín Pérez

1+ HR Over Standard Play 0.75 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 3 books Batting 2

Calibrated Prob 26.0%

Market Gap 11.8%

Confidence Strong Zone

Hybrid Confidence 25.0% Adjusted from 26.0% model read

Playable

Confidence Disagreement Moderate Disagreement 5.5% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Moderate Disagreement Reduced Exposure

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Moderate Damage Neutral Trust

Strong Zone look against Martín Pérez, with batting 2 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

FanDuel Best +605 26.0% 11.8% Strong Zone

BetMGM +600 26.0% 11.7% Strong Zone

DraftKings +600 26.0% 11.7% Strong Zone

Overlay

Parlay Overlay

Best distinct two-leg Fangorn HR parlay concepts from the saved overlay artifact.

Artifact

No Fangorn parlay overlay was saved for this slate.