Mithrandir Metrics
The Mirror live sim Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Heads up The Mirror is being actively tuned right now. Some live figures may lag or look off while we work through a few issues, so treat numbers here as provisional. Full accuracy back shortly.
The Mirror / 2026-09-26 beta

HOU 13, ATH 2. Final.

The Mirror’s record: every call graded →

Batter-by-batter Monte Carlo: each plate appearance is a real matchup probability, played through a full base-out state machine with starter fatigue and bullpen chains. Validated against 358 completed games before launch.

Final

HOU 13, ATH 2

The final result has replaced the last live pitch state. Published 04:34:54Z UTC · back to slate

Final
13 – 2final score
15total runs
37% → 0%ATH win prob, pregame → final
Pregame baseline

Houston Astros @ Athletics

Wesneski, Hayden vs Perkins, Jack · engine 0.1.13 · back to slate

2026-09-26
HOU 63.3%ATH 36.7%
5.11 – 3.7mean score
8.82mean total
51%NRFI
9.8%extra innings
5.18 / 5.92starter K means
Run distributions

Total runs across 8,000 sims

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Hover a bar for the probability of that exact total.

Team run distributions

HOU (gold) vs ATH (cyan)

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Paired bars per run count.

Projected batting lines

HOU per-game means

BatterPAHHRTBBBKRBI
Peña, Jeremy 4.891.2920.212 2.2390.3211.4210.565
Alvarez, Yordan 4.7791.3150.281 2.5430.7261.0880.733
Paredes, Isaac 4.6861.1540.178 1.9340.520.8880.629
Altuve, Jose 4.5751.1280.142 1.7880.3451.190.592
Diaz, Yainer 4.4631.2350.167 2.0060.2410.9590.64
Walker, Christian 4.3530.960.2 1.7780.3551.230.585
Spence, Lucas 4.2380.9080.169 1.6140.3681.3380.498
Smith, Cam 4.1290.8680.164 1.5650.3171.2550.481
Trammell, Taylor 4.0130.7960.124 1.3310.3991.3870.39
Projected batting lines

ATH per-game means

BatterPAHHRTBBBKRBI
Bolte, Henry 4.5671.1330.086 1.6350.3631.3710.338
Butler, Lawrence 4.4520.9540.115 1.5110.471.2480.424
Langeliers, Shea 4.3451.0470.162 1.8170.3731.0950.553
McNeil, Jeff 4.2481.0160.063 1.3850.2840.6240.404
Gelof, Zack 4.1440.9670.152 1.6910.3241.0620.523
Walton, Donovan 4.0420.9070.106 1.4430.3960.8190.434
Cortes, Carlos 3.9380.880.081 1.3030.3080.7860.371
White, Tommy 3.8150.8490.061 1.1710.2160.8160.326
Heim, Jonah 3.6940.7210.093 1.1470.2550.7920.33
One representative simulation

A median-outcome game, batter by batter

This is the play-by-play of one sim whose final total matched the median across all runs — a preview of the most typical version of tonight.

— Top 1 —
Peña, Jeremy vs Perkins, Jack: OUT AIR
Alvarez, Yordan vs Perkins, Jack: OUT AIR
Paredes, Isaac vs Perkins, Jack: OUT AIR
— Bottom 1 —
Bolte, Henry vs Wesneski, Hayden: K
Butler, Lawrence vs Wesneski, Hayden: BB
Langeliers, Shea vs Wesneski, Hayden: OUT AIR
McNeil, Jeff vs Wesneski, Hayden: OUT AIR
— Top 2 —
Altuve, Jose vs Perkins, Jack: K
Diaz, Yainer vs Perkins, Jack: 1B
Walker, Christian vs Perkins, Jack: OUT GB
Spence, Lucas vs Perkins, Jack: 1B
Smith, Cam vs Perkins, Jack: OUT AIR
— Bottom 2 —
Gelof, Zack vs Wesneski, Hayden: OUT GB
Walton, Donovan vs Wesneski, Hayden: OUT AIR
Cortes, Carlos vs Wesneski, Hayden: OUT AIR
— Top 3 —
Trammell, Taylor vs Perkins, Jack: HR +1 run (1-0)
Peña, Jeremy vs Perkins, Jack: OUT AIR
Alvarez, Yordan vs Perkins, Jack: OUT AIR
Paredes, Isaac vs Perkins, Jack: K
— Bottom 3 —
White, Tommy vs Wesneski, Hayden: OUT GB
Heim, Jonah vs Wesneski, Hayden: OUT AIR
Bolte, Henry vs Wesneski, Hayden: OUT GB
— Top 4 —
Altuve, Jose vs Perkins, Jack: 1B
Diaz, Yainer vs Perkins, Jack: OUT GB
Walker, Christian vs Perkins, Jack: 1B
Spence, Lucas vs Perkins, Jack: K
— Bottom 4 —
Butler, Lawrence vs Wesneski, Hayden: 1B
Langeliers, Shea vs Wesneski, Hayden: 1B
McNeil, Jeff vs Wesneski, Hayden: 1B +1 run (1-1)
Gelof, Zack vs Wesneski, Hayden: OUT GB
Walton, Donovan vs Wesneski, Hayden: OUT GB
Cortes, Carlos vs Wesneski, Hayden: OUT GB
— Top 5 —
Smith, Cam vs Perkins, Jack: 1B
Trammell, Taylor vs Perkins, Jack: BB
Peña, Jeremy vs Perkins, Jack: 1B
Alvarez, Yordan vs Perkins, Jack: OUT GB
Paredes, Isaac vs Perkins, Jack: HR +4 runs (5-1)
Altuve, Jose vs Alvarado, Elvis: 2B
Diaz, Yainer vs Alvarado, Elvis: K
Walker, Christian vs Alvarado, Elvis: OUT AIR
— Bottom 5 —
White, Tommy vs Wesneski, Hayden: BB
Heim, Jonah vs Wesneski, Hayden: OUT AIR
Bolte, Henry vs Wesneski, Hayden: OUT AIR
Butler, Lawrence vs Wesneski, Hayden: OUT AIR
— Top 6 —
Spence, Lucas vs Alvarado, Elvis: BB
Smith, Cam vs Leiter Jr., Mark: OUT GB
Trammell, Taylor vs Leiter Jr., Mark: OUT GB
Peña, Jeremy vs Leiter Jr., Mark: 1B
Alvarez, Yordan vs Leiter Jr., Mark: OUT AIR
— Bottom 6 —
Langeliers, Shea vs Wesneski, Hayden: 2B
McNeil, Jeff vs Wesneski, Hayden: 1B +1 run (5-2)
Gelof, Zack vs Wesneski, Hayden: OUT GB
Walton, Donovan vs Wesneski, Hayden: OUT AIR
Cortes, Carlos vs Wesneski, Hayden: OUT AIR
— Top 7 —
Paredes, Isaac vs Sterner, Justin: OUT AIR
Altuve, Jose vs Sterner, Justin: 2B
Diaz, Yainer vs Sterner, Justin: 1B +1 run (6-2)
Walker, Christian vs Sterner, Justin: OUT GB
Spence, Lucas vs Sterner, Justin: K
— Bottom 7 —
White, Tommy vs Wesneski, Hayden: OUT AIR
Heim, Jonah vs Wesneski, Hayden: 1B
Bolte, Henry vs Wesneski, Hayden: K
Butler, Lawrence vs Wesneski, Hayden: OUT AIR
— Top 8 —
Smith, Cam vs Sterner, Justin: OUT AIR
Trammell, Taylor vs Harris, Hogan: OUT AIR
Peña, Jeremy vs Harris, Hogan: 1B
Alvarez, Yordan vs Harris, Hogan: OUT AIR
— Bottom 8 —
Langeliers, Shea vs VanWey, Logan: OUT GB
McNeil, Jeff vs VanWey, Logan: OUT AIR
Gelof, Zack vs VanWey, Logan: BB
Walton, Donovan vs VanWey, Logan: OUT AIR
— Top 9 —
Paredes, Isaac vs Harris, Hogan: OUT AIR
Altuve, Jose vs Medina, Luis: OUT AIR
Diaz, Yainer vs Medina, Luis: K
— Bottom 9 —
Cortes, Carlos vs Hader, Josh: BB
White, Tommy vs Hader, Josh: K
Heim, Jonah vs Hader, Josh: K
Bolte, Henry vs Hader, Josh: BB
Butler, Lawrence vs Hader, Josh: OUT GB