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The Mirror / 2026-09-26 beta
HOU 13, ATH 2. Final.
The Mirror’s record: every call graded →
Batter-by-batter Monte Carlo: each plate appearance is a real matchup probability, played through a full base-out state machine with starter fatigue and bullpen chains. Validated against 358 completed games before launch.
Final
HOU 13, ATH 2
The final result has replaced the last live pitch state. Published 04:34:54Z UTC · back to slate
13 – 2final score
15total runs
37% → 0%ATH win prob, pregame → final
Pregame baseline
Houston Astros @ Athletics
Wesneski, Hayden vs Perkins, Jack · engine 0.1.13 · back to slate
HOU 63.3%ATH 36.7%
5.11 – 3.7mean score
8.82mean total
51%NRFI
9.8%extra innings
5.18 / 5.92starter K means
Run distributions
Total runs across 8,000 sims
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Hover a bar for the probability of that exact total.
Team run distributions
HOU (gold) vs ATH (cyan)
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Paired bars per run count.
Projected batting lines
HOU per-game means
| Batter | PA | H | HR | TB | BB | K | RBI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peña, Jeremy | 4.89 | 1.292 | 0.212 | 2.239 | 0.321 | 1.421 | 0.565 |
| Alvarez, Yordan | 4.779 | 1.315 | 0.281 | 2.543 | 0.726 | 1.088 | 0.733 |
| Paredes, Isaac | 4.686 | 1.154 | 0.178 | 1.934 | 0.52 | 0.888 | 0.629 |
| Altuve, Jose | 4.575 | 1.128 | 0.142 | 1.788 | 0.345 | 1.19 | 0.592 |
| Diaz, Yainer | 4.463 | 1.235 | 0.167 | 2.006 | 0.241 | 0.959 | 0.64 |
| Walker, Christian | 4.353 | 0.96 | 0.2 | 1.778 | 0.355 | 1.23 | 0.585 |
| Spence, Lucas | 4.238 | 0.908 | 0.169 | 1.614 | 0.368 | 1.338 | 0.498 |
| Smith, Cam | 4.129 | 0.868 | 0.164 | 1.565 | 0.317 | 1.255 | 0.481 |
| Trammell, Taylor | 4.013 | 0.796 | 0.124 | 1.331 | 0.399 | 1.387 | 0.39 |
Projected batting lines
ATH per-game means
| Batter | PA | H | HR | TB | BB | K | RBI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bolte, Henry | 4.567 | 1.133 | 0.086 | 1.635 | 0.363 | 1.371 | 0.338 |
| Butler, Lawrence | 4.452 | 0.954 | 0.115 | 1.511 | 0.47 | 1.248 | 0.424 |
| Langeliers, Shea | 4.345 | 1.047 | 0.162 | 1.817 | 0.373 | 1.095 | 0.553 |
| McNeil, Jeff | 4.248 | 1.016 | 0.063 | 1.385 | 0.284 | 0.624 | 0.404 |
| Gelof, Zack | 4.144 | 0.967 | 0.152 | 1.691 | 0.324 | 1.062 | 0.523 |
| Walton, Donovan | 4.042 | 0.907 | 0.106 | 1.443 | 0.396 | 0.819 | 0.434 |
| Cortes, Carlos | 3.938 | 0.88 | 0.081 | 1.303 | 0.308 | 0.786 | 0.371 |
| White, Tommy | 3.815 | 0.849 | 0.061 | 1.171 | 0.216 | 0.816 | 0.326 |
| Heim, Jonah | 3.694 | 0.721 | 0.093 | 1.147 | 0.255 | 0.792 | 0.33 |
One representative simulation
A median-outcome game, batter by batter
This is the play-by-play of one sim whose final total matched the median across all runs — a preview of the most typical version of tonight.
— Top 1 —
Peña, Jeremy vs Perkins, Jack: OUT AIR
Alvarez, Yordan vs Perkins, Jack: OUT AIR
Paredes, Isaac vs Perkins, Jack: OUT AIR
— Bottom 1 —
Bolte, Henry vs Wesneski, Hayden: K
Butler, Lawrence vs Wesneski, Hayden: BB
Langeliers, Shea vs Wesneski, Hayden: OUT AIR
McNeil, Jeff vs Wesneski, Hayden: OUT AIR
— Top 2 —
Altuve, Jose vs Perkins, Jack: K
Diaz, Yainer vs Perkins, Jack: 1B
Walker, Christian vs Perkins, Jack: OUT GB
Spence, Lucas vs Perkins, Jack: 1B
Smith, Cam vs Perkins, Jack: OUT AIR
— Bottom 2 —
Gelof, Zack vs Wesneski, Hayden: OUT GB
Walton, Donovan vs Wesneski, Hayden: OUT AIR
Cortes, Carlos vs Wesneski, Hayden: OUT AIR
— Top 3 —
Trammell, Taylor vs Perkins, Jack: HR +1 run (1-0)
Peña, Jeremy vs Perkins, Jack: OUT AIR
Alvarez, Yordan vs Perkins, Jack: OUT AIR
Paredes, Isaac vs Perkins, Jack: K
— Bottom 3 —
White, Tommy vs Wesneski, Hayden: OUT GB
Heim, Jonah vs Wesneski, Hayden: OUT AIR
Bolte, Henry vs Wesneski, Hayden: OUT GB
— Top 4 —
Altuve, Jose vs Perkins, Jack: 1B
Diaz, Yainer vs Perkins, Jack: OUT GB
Walker, Christian vs Perkins, Jack: 1B
Spence, Lucas vs Perkins, Jack: K
— Bottom 4 —
Butler, Lawrence vs Wesneski, Hayden: 1B
Langeliers, Shea vs Wesneski, Hayden: 1B
McNeil, Jeff vs Wesneski, Hayden: 1B +1 run (1-1)
Gelof, Zack vs Wesneski, Hayden: OUT GB
Walton, Donovan vs Wesneski, Hayden: OUT GB
Cortes, Carlos vs Wesneski, Hayden: OUT GB
— Top 5 —
Smith, Cam vs Perkins, Jack: 1B
Trammell, Taylor vs Perkins, Jack: BB
Peña, Jeremy vs Perkins, Jack: 1B
Alvarez, Yordan vs Perkins, Jack: OUT GB
Paredes, Isaac vs Perkins, Jack: HR +4 runs (5-1)
Altuve, Jose vs Alvarado, Elvis: 2B
Diaz, Yainer vs Alvarado, Elvis: K
Walker, Christian vs Alvarado, Elvis: OUT AIR
— Bottom 5 —
White, Tommy vs Wesneski, Hayden: BB
Heim, Jonah vs Wesneski, Hayden: OUT AIR
Bolte, Henry vs Wesneski, Hayden: OUT AIR
Butler, Lawrence vs Wesneski, Hayden: OUT AIR
— Top 6 —
Spence, Lucas vs Alvarado, Elvis: BB
Smith, Cam vs Leiter Jr., Mark: OUT GB
Trammell, Taylor vs Leiter Jr., Mark: OUT GB
Peña, Jeremy vs Leiter Jr., Mark: 1B
Alvarez, Yordan vs Leiter Jr., Mark: OUT AIR
— Bottom 6 —
Langeliers, Shea vs Wesneski, Hayden: 2B
McNeil, Jeff vs Wesneski, Hayden: 1B +1 run (5-2)
Gelof, Zack vs Wesneski, Hayden: OUT GB
Walton, Donovan vs Wesneski, Hayden: OUT AIR
Cortes, Carlos vs Wesneski, Hayden: OUT AIR
— Top 7 —
Paredes, Isaac vs Sterner, Justin: OUT AIR
Altuve, Jose vs Sterner, Justin: 2B
Diaz, Yainer vs Sterner, Justin: 1B +1 run (6-2)
Walker, Christian vs Sterner, Justin: OUT GB
Spence, Lucas vs Sterner, Justin: K
— Bottom 7 —
White, Tommy vs Wesneski, Hayden: OUT AIR
Heim, Jonah vs Wesneski, Hayden: 1B
Bolte, Henry vs Wesneski, Hayden: K
Butler, Lawrence vs Wesneski, Hayden: OUT AIR
— Top 8 —
Smith, Cam vs Sterner, Justin: OUT AIR
Trammell, Taylor vs Harris, Hogan: OUT AIR
Peña, Jeremy vs Harris, Hogan: 1B
Alvarez, Yordan vs Harris, Hogan: OUT AIR
— Bottom 8 —
Langeliers, Shea vs VanWey, Logan: OUT GB
McNeil, Jeff vs VanWey, Logan: OUT AIR
Gelof, Zack vs VanWey, Logan: BB
Walton, Donovan vs VanWey, Logan: OUT AIR
— Top 9 —
Paredes, Isaac vs Harris, Hogan: OUT AIR
Altuve, Jose vs Medina, Luis: OUT AIR
Diaz, Yainer vs Medina, Luis: K
— Bottom 9 —
Cortes, Carlos vs Hader, Josh: BB
White, Tommy vs Hader, Josh: K
Heim, Jonah vs Hader, Josh: K
Bolte, Henry vs Hader, Josh: BB
Butler, Lawrence vs Hader, Josh: OUT GB