Heads up
The Mirror is being actively tuned right now. Some live figures may lag or look off while we work through a few issues, so treat numbers here as provisional. Full accuracy back shortly.
The Mirror / 2026-09-26 beta
ATL @ MIA, live.
The Mirror’s record: every call graded →
Batter-by-batter Monte Carlo: each plate appearance is a real matchup probability, played through a full base-out state machine with starter fatigue and bullpen chains. Validated against 358 completed games before launch.
Live · Bottom 4 · 6-1 · 2 out
ATL @ MIA: live re-simulation
The newest pitch state publishes before the Monte Carlo finishes. This page checks every 5 seconds. State checked 21:24:10Z UTC · probabilities updated 21:23:55Z UTC · back to slate
ATL 95.5%MIA 4.5%
11.06live total (pre 7.98)
3.0 / 2.0SP K projections
52% → 5%MIA win prob, pregame → now
Market context · Kalshi (display only, not affiliated)
94.5% vs 96.7%
ATL wins · market mid vs model fair (live)
5.5% vs 3.3%
MIA wins · market mid vs model fair (live)
A gap is a disagreement, not advice; the market is often right. Snapshot 4m old · all event markets · responsible gaming
AT THE PLATE
Agustín Ramírez vs Dylan Dodd
0-0 count · 2 out
18%hit
29%K
9%BB
2.0%HR
MIA win probability across the game so far.
| Inn | Matchup | Opening PA forecast | Actual | MIA win prob → |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bot 4 | Javier Sanoja vs Dylan Dodd | Reach 28% 1B 16% · 2B 4% · 3B 0.4% · HR 2.0% · BB 6% · K 14% · BIP out 57% | Home Run +1 RBI | 6.6% ▲ 5.1 |
| Bot 4 | Jakob Marsee vs Dylan Dodd | Reach 27% 1B 12% · 2B 3% · 3B 0.3% · HR 1.7% · BB 10% · K 27% · BIP out 46% | Pop Out | 1.4% ▼ 1.4 |
| Bot 4 | Heriberto Hernández vs Dylan Dodd | Reach 26% 1B 10% · 2B 3% · 3B 0.3% · HR 3.8% · BB 9% · K 32% · BIP out 41% | Flyout | 2.9% |
| Top 4 | Austin Riley vs Dax Fulton | Reach 29% 1B 13% · 2B 4% · 3B 0.3% · HR 2.0% · BB 9% · K 33% · BIP out 38% | Strikeout | 3.1% ▲ 0.6 |
| Top 4 | Drake Baldwin vs Dax Fulton | Reach 34% 1B 16% · 2B 5% · 3B 0.3% · HR 2.4% · BB 11% · K 25% · BIP out 41% | Single | 2.6% ▼ 1.7 |
| Top 4 | Matt Olson vs Dax Fulton | Reach 32% 1B 12% · 2B 6% · 3B 0.2% · HR 3.6% · BB 10% · K 27% · BIP out 41% | Single | 4.3% |
| Top 4 | Ronald Acuña Jr. vs Dax Fulton | Reach 34% 1B 14% · 2B 5% · 3B 0.3% · HR 2.5% · BB 13% · K 25% · BIP out 41% | Groundout | 4.3% ▼ 2.6 |
| Top 4 | Michael Harris II vs Dax Fulton | Reach 31% 1B 17% · 2B 6% · 3B 0.4% · HR 2.5% · BB 6% · K 22% · BIP out 47% | Double +1 RBI | 6.9% ▼ 0.9 |
| Top 4 | Ha-Seong Kim vs Dax Fulton | Reach 26% 1B 12% · 2B 1% · 3B 0.3% · HR 0.9% · BB 11% · K 27% · BIP out 47% | Triple | 7.7% ▼ 5.1 |
| Top 4 | Dominic Smith vs Dax Fulton | Reach 31% 1B 16% · 2B 4% · 3B 0.3% · HR 1.7% · BB 10% · K 20% · BIP out 49% | Lineout | 12.9% ▲ 4.3 |
| Bot 3 | Otto Lopez vs Brent Suter | Reach 35% 1B 22% · 2B 5% · 3B 0.6% · HR 1.7% · BB 6% · K 15% · BIP out 50% | Groundout | 8.6% ▲ 1.1 |
| Bot 3 | Jared Serna vs Brent Suter | Reach 30% 1B 16% · 2B 4% · 3B 0.5% · HR 2.2% · BB 7% · K 24% · BIP out 46% | Strikeout | 7.4% ▲ 0.9 |
| Bot 3 | Deyvison De Los Santos vs Brent Suter | Reach 28% 1B 16% · 2B 4% · 3B 0.4% · HR 2.3% · BB 6% · K 25% · BIP out 47% | Pop Out | 6.6% ▼ 4.3 |
| Top 3 | Ozzie Albies vs Cade Gibson | Reach 31% 1B 17% · 2B 4% · 3B 0.4% · HR 2.2% · BB 7% · K 16% · BIP out 52% | Strikeout | 10.9% ▲ 0.6 |
| Top 3 | Mike Yastrzemski vs Cade Gibson | Reach 33% 1B 16% · 2B 5% · 3B 0.4% · HR 2.4% · BB 10% · K 24% · BIP out 42% | Pop Out | 10.3% |
| Top 3 | Austin Riley vs Victor Vodnik | Reach 31% 1B 15% · 2B 4% · 3B 0.4% · HR 1.8% · BB 9% · K 28% · BIP out 40% | Strikeout | 10.0% ▼ 1.7 |
| Bot 2 | Griffin Conine vs Brent Suter | Reach 33% 1B 14% · 2B 6% · 3B 0.3% · HR 4.4% · BB 8% · K 28% · BIP out 39% | Flyout | 11.7% ▲ 2.3 |
| Bot 2 | Esteury Ruiz vs Brent Suter | Reach 30% 1B 16% · 2B 4% · 3B 0.5% · HR 2.2% · BB 8% · K 29% · BIP out 40% | Strikeout | 9.4% ▼ 2.0 |
| Bot 2 | Agustín Ramírez vs Brent Suter | Reach 32% 1B 17% · 2B 4% · 3B 0.4% · HR 2.0% · BB 8% · K 24% · BIP out 44% | Strikeout | 11.4% ▼ 0.6 |
| Top 2 | Drake Baldwin vs Victor Vodnik | Reach 37% 1B 18% · 2B 6% · 3B 0.3% · HR 2.1% · BB 11% · K 21% · BIP out 43% | Groundout | 12.0% ▲ 2.0 |
| Top 2 | Matt Olson vs Victor Vodnik | Reach 34% 1B 13% · 2B 6% · 3B 0.2% · HR 3.2% · BB 11% · K 23% · BIP out 43% | Pop Out | 10.0% |
| Top 2 | Ronald Acuña Jr. vs Victor Vodnik | Reach 36% 1B 15% · 2B 5% · 3B 0.4% · HR 2.2% · BB 13% · K 21% · BIP out 43% | Fielders Choice | 10.0% ▼ 9.1 |
| Top 2 | Michael Harris II vs Victor Vodnik | Reach 33% 1B 18% · 2B 6% · 3B 0.5% · HR 2.2% · BB 6% · K 18% · BIP out 48% | Single | 19.1% ▼ 1.4 |
| Top 2 | Ha-Seong Kim vs Victor Vodnik | Reach 28% 1B 14% · 2B 2% · 3B 0.3% · HR 0.8% · BB 11% · K 23% · BIP out 49% | Walk | 20.6% ▼ 2.3 |
| Top 2 | Dominic Smith vs Jack Ralston | Reach 31% 1B 15% · 2B 3% · 3B 0.3% · HR 3.2% · BB 9% · K 19% · BIP out 50% | Home Run +2 RBI | 22.9% ▼ 16.9 |
| Top 2 | Ozzie Albies vs Jack Ralston | Reach 29% 1B 14% · 2B 4% · 3B 0.3% · HR 3.7% · BB 8% · K 18% · BIP out 52% | Strikeout | 39.7% ▲ 4.6 |
| Top 2 | Mike Yastrzemski vs Jack Ralston | Reach 31% 1B 12% · 2B 4% · 3B 0.3% · HR 3.9% · BB 11% · K 27% · BIP out 42% | Walk | 35.1% ▼ 1.7 |
| Bot 1 | Javier Sanoja vs Brent Suter | Reach 34% 1B 20% · 2B 6% · 3B 0.6% · HR 2.0% · BB 6% · K 11% · BIP out 54% | Groundout | 36.9% |
| Bot 1 | Jakob Marsee vs Brent Suter | Reach 32% 1B 17% · 2B 4% · 3B 0.4% · HR 1.7% · BB 10% · K 22% · BIP out 46% | Forceout | 36.9% ▼ 3.1 |
| Bot 1 | Heriberto Hernández vs Brent Suter | Reach 31% 1B 13% · 2B 5% · 3B 0.4% · HR 3.9% · BB 9% · K 27% · BIP out 42% | Flyout | 40.0% ▼ 7.7 |
| Bot 1 | Otto Lopez vs Brent Suter | Reach 35% 1B 22% · 2B 5% · 3B 0.6% · HR 1.7% · BB 6% · K 15% · BIP out 50% | Single | 47.7% ▲ 6.6 |
| Top 1 | Austin Riley vs Jack Ralston | Reach 29% 1B 12% · 2B 3% · 3B 0.3% · HR 3.8% · BB 9% · K 33% · BIP out 38% | Strikeout | 41.1% ▼ 1.4 |
| Top 1 | Drake Baldwin vs Jack Ralston | Reach 34% 1B 15% · 2B 5% · 3B 0.3% · HR 4.4% · BB 10% · K 24% · BIP out 41% | Single | 42.6% ▲ 2.9 |
| Top 1 | Matt Olson vs Jack Ralston | Reach 33% 1B 11% · 2B 5% · 3B 0.2% · HR 6.5% · BB 10% · K 27% · BIP out 40% | Sac Fly +1 RBI | 39.7% ▼ 11.2 |
| Top 1 | Ronald Acuña Jr. vs Jack Ralston | Reach 34% 1B 12% · 2B 4% · 3B 0.3% · HR 4.7% · BB 12% · K 25% · BIP out 41% | Strikeout | 50.9% ▲ 9.4 |
| Top 1 | Michael Harris II vs Jack Ralston | Reach 31% 1B 16% · 2B 5% · 3B 0.4% · HR 4.5% · BB 6% · K 22% · BIP out 47% | Double | 41.4% |
The opening forecast is the 0-0 matchup distribution, not one random Monte Carlo draw. The at-the-plate panel and win probability re-simulate from the current count and game state after every pitch.
Pregame baseline
Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins
Suter, Brent vs Ralston, Jack · engine 0.1.13 · back to slate
ATL 48.4%MIA 51.6%
3.99 – 3.99mean score
7.98mean total
50%NRFI
11.3%extra innings
2.11 / 1.97starter K means
Run distributions
Total runs across 8,000 sims
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Hover a bar for the probability of that exact total.
Team run distributions
ATL (gold) vs MIA (cyan)
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Paired bars per run count.
Projected batting lines
ATL per-game means
| Batter | PA | H | HR | TB | BB | K | RBI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harris II, Michael | 4.752 | 1.25 | 0.171 | 2.075 | 0.241 | 1.155 | 0.482 |
| Acuña Jr., Ronald | 4.638 | 0.991 | 0.176 | 1.759 | 0.53 | 1.285 | 0.477 |
| Olson, Matt | 4.531 | 1.006 | 0.229 | 1.97 | 0.423 | 1.366 | 0.615 |
| Baldwin, Drake | 4.429 | 1.08 | 0.16 | 1.795 | 0.418 | 1.219 | 0.538 |
| Riley, Austin | 4.322 | 0.844 | 0.134 | 1.425 | 0.344 | 1.585 | 0.442 |
| Yastrzemski, Mike | 4.209 | 0.861 | 0.134 | 1.455 | 0.414 | 1.248 | 0.425 |
| Albies, Ozzie | 4.099 | 0.865 | 0.126 | 1.429 | 0.327 | 0.846 | 0.414 |
| Smith, Dominic | 3.983 | 0.892 | 0.106 | 1.372 | 0.348 | 0.888 | 0.377 |
| Kim, Ha-Seong | 3.875 | 0.584 | 0.05 | 0.814 | 0.369 | 1.178 | 0.22 |
Projected batting lines
MIA per-game means
| Batter | PA | H | HR | TB | BB | K | RBI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lopez, Otto | 4.586 | 1.351 | 0.078 | 1.888 | 0.274 | 0.799 | 0.395 |
| Hernández, Heriberto | 4.474 | 0.961 | 0.17 | 1.706 | 0.439 | 1.36 | 0.507 |
| Marsee, Jakob | 4.361 | 0.949 | 0.074 | 1.362 | 0.455 | 1.086 | 0.394 |
| Sanoja, Javier | 4.262 | 1.236 | 0.083 | 1.782 | 0.262 | 0.564 | 0.542 |
| Ramírez, Agustín | 4.161 | 0.94 | 0.08 | 1.371 | 0.384 | 1.137 | 0.447 |
| Ruiz, Esteury | 4.063 | 0.886 | 0.089 | 1.356 | 0.342 | 1.341 | 0.424 |
| Conine, Griffin | 3.955 | 0.929 | 0.169 | 1.675 | 0.356 | 1.254 | 0.558 |
| De Los Santos, Deyvison | 3.841 | 0.827 | 0.082 | 1.253 | 0.236 | 1.073 | 0.369 |
| Serna, Jared | 3.712 | 0.816 | 0.08 | 1.231 | 0.273 | 1.016 | 0.354 |
One representative simulation
A median-outcome game, batter by batter
This is the play-by-play of one sim whose final total matched the median across all runs — a preview of the most typical version of tonight.
— Top 1 —
Harris II, Michael vs Ralston, Jack: OUT GB
Acuña Jr., Ronald vs Ralston, Jack: BB
Olson, Matt vs Ralston, Jack: OUT AIR
Baldwin, Drake vs Ralston, Jack: 1B
Riley, Austin vs Ralston, Jack: OUT GB
— Bottom 1 —
Lopez, Otto vs Suter, Brent: OUT GB
Hernández, Heriberto vs Suter, Brent: K
Marsee, Jakob vs Suter, Brent: K
— Top 2 —
Yastrzemski, Mike vs Ralston, Jack: OUT GB
Albies, Ozzie vs Ralston, Jack: BB
Smith, Dominic vs Ralston, Jack: OUT AIR
Kim, Ha-Seong vs Ralston, Jack: K
— Bottom 2 —
Sanoja, Javier vs Suter, Brent: 1B
Ramírez, Agustín vs Suter, Brent: OUT GB
Ruiz, Esteury vs Suter, Brent: K
Conine, Griffin vs Suter, Brent: OUT AIR
— Top 3 —
Harris II, Michael vs Nardi, Andrew: 1B
Acuña Jr., Ronald vs Nardi, Andrew: K
Olson, Matt vs Nardi, Andrew: K
Baldwin, Drake vs Nardi, Andrew: OUT AIR
— Bottom 3 —
De Los Santos, Deyvison vs Suter, Brent: 1B
Serna, Jared vs Payamps, Joel: 1B
Lopez, Otto vs Payamps, Joel: OUT GB
Hernández, Heriberto vs Payamps, Joel: K
Marsee, Jakob vs Payamps, Joel: BB
Sanoja, Javier vs Payamps, Joel: 2B +2 runs (0-2)
Ramírez, Agustín vs Payamps, Joel: BB
Ruiz, Esteury vs Payamps, Joel: BB +1 run (0-3)
Conine, Griffin vs Payamps, Joel: K
— Top 4 —
Riley, Austin vs Nardi, Andrew: OUT AIR
Yastrzemski, Mike vs Kempner, William: OUT AIR
Albies, Ozzie vs Kempner, William: 1B
Smith, Dominic vs Kempner, William: K
— Bottom 4 —
De Los Santos, Deyvison vs Payamps, Joel: K
Serna, Jared vs Payamps, Joel: K
Lopez, Otto vs Payamps, Joel: OUT AIR
— Top 5 —
Kim, Ha-Seong vs Kempner, William: OUT AIR
Harris II, Michael vs Kempner, William: OUT GB
Acuña Jr., Ronald vs Kempner, William: OUT GB
— Bottom 5 —
Hernández, Heriberto vs Payamps, Joel: K
Marsee, Jakob vs Payamps, Joel: OUT AIR
Sanoja, Javier vs Payamps, Joel: 2B
Ramírez, Agustín vs Iglesias, Raisel: K
— Top 6 —
Olson, Matt vs Fairbanks, Pete: 2B
Baldwin, Drake vs Fairbanks, Pete: OUT GB
Riley, Austin vs Fairbanks, Pete: 1B
Yastrzemski, Mike vs Fairbanks, Pete: 2B +2 runs (2-3)
Albies, Ozzie vs Zuber, Tyler: OUT AIR
Smith, Dominic vs Zuber, Tyler: OUT AIR
— Bottom 6 —
Ruiz, Esteury vs Iglesias, Raisel: OUT AIR
Conine, Griffin vs Iglesias, Raisel: K
De Los Santos, Deyvison vs Iglesias, Raisel: OUT GB
— Top 7 —
Kim, Ha-Seong vs Zuber, Tyler: OUT AIR
Harris II, Michael vs Zuber, Tyler: OUT AIR
Acuña Jr., Ronald vs Petersen, Michael: 2B
Olson, Matt vs Petersen, Michael: K
— Bottom 7 —
Serna, Jared vs Suarez, Robert: OUT AIR
Lopez, Otto vs Suarez, Robert: OUT AIR
Hernández, Heriberto vs Suarez, Robert: BB
Marsee, Jakob vs Suarez, Robert: K
— Top 8 —
Baldwin, Drake vs Petersen, Michael: OUT GB
Riley, Austin vs Petersen, Michael: K
Yastrzemski, Mike vs Petersen, Michael: HR +1 run (3-3)
Albies, Ozzie vs Petersen, Michael: OUT GB
— Bottom 8 —
Sanoja, Javier vs Lee, Dylan: 1B
Ramírez, Agustín vs Lee, Dylan: OUT AIR
Ruiz, Esteury vs Lee, Dylan: OUT AIR
Conine, Griffin vs Lee, Dylan: K
— Top 9 —
Smith, Dominic vs Bender, Anthony: OUT AIR
Kim, Ha-Seong vs Bender, Anthony: BB
Harris II, Michael vs Bender, Anthony: OUT GB
Acuña Jr., Ronald vs Bender, Anthony: OUT AIR
— Bottom 9 —
De Los Santos, Deyvison vs Fuentes, Didier: OUT AIR
Serna, Jared vs Fuentes, Didier: OUT AIR
Lopez, Otto vs Fuentes, Didier: OUT AIR
— Top 10 —
Olson, Matt vs Bender, Anthony: K
Baldwin, Drake vs Blalock, Bradley: OUT AIR
Riley, Austin vs Blalock, Bradley: OUT AIR
— Bottom 10 —
Hernández, Heriberto vs Fuentes, Didier: K
Marsee, Jakob vs Fuentes, Didier: OUT GB
Sanoja, Javier vs Dodd, Dylan: BB
Ramírez, Agustín vs Dodd, Dylan: OUT GB
— Top 11 —
Yastrzemski, Mike vs Blalock, Bradley: OUT AIR
Albies, Ozzie vs Blalock, Bradley: 2B +1 run (4-3)
Smith, Dominic vs Blalock, Bradley: OUT GB
Kim, Ha-Seong vs Blalock, Bradley: OUT GB
— Bottom 11 —
Ruiz, Esteury vs Dodd, Dylan: K
Conine, Griffin vs Dodd, Dylan: K
De Los Santos, Deyvison vs Dodd, Dylan: OUT AIR