Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / MIL · 2026
Chourio, Jackson
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team MIL
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 22
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
83
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.330 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.334 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.332 |
| Observed weight | 57% |
xwOBA
0.305
0.318
0.332
0.347
0.360
wOBA
0.348
0.366
0.385
0.404
0.421
ISO
0.171
0.187
0.204
0.220
0.236
K%
19.6%
21.0%
22.4%
23.9%
25.2%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%9.1%
92
+16 vs proj
Exit velocity92.3
93
Hard-hit%46.8%
82
xBA0.342
71
xSLG0.643
85
xwOBA0.334
74
BB%6.8%
27
Bat speed72.9
88
K%24.3%
40
-33 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.1 · LF
51
Arm Strength94.1 · LF
61
Outs Above Avg1.0 · LF
80
Range Runs1.7 · LF
73
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.6 · LF
59
Bolts22.0 · LF
81
Sprint Speed28.7 · LF
86
SB Success Rate100.0% · LF
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 64.8% · rebadged research
46
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.3% · rebadged research
29
Correct Decisions64.3% · rebadged research
30
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.298 · borderline
27
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.290 · insufficient sample
21
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.305 · validated thin sample
8
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.312 · insufficient sample
92
Resists FastballwOBA 0.356 · validated
20
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.384 · validated
9
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
36
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
102 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.011 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.062 |
| Sample | 296 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 583 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 21 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.323 | 0.311 to 0.400 | +/- 0.045 |
| ISO | 0.176 | 0.134 to 0.259 | +/- 0.063 |
| Barrel% | 6.7% | 4.8% to 9.4% | +/- 2.3% |
| Hard-Hit% | 45.2% | 40.7% to 52.3% | +/- 5.8% |
| K% | 18.0% | 14.7% to 24.4% | +/- 4.9% |
| BB% | 6.1% | 4.0% to 10.1% | +/- 3.1% |
| BABIP | 0.311 | 0.282 to 0.363 | +/- 0.041 |
vs LHP
354 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.280 |
| K% | 16.9% |
| BB% | 6.0% |
| Barrel | 5.6% |
vs RHP
915 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.266 |
| K% | 16.4% |
| BB% | 4.4% |
| Barrel | 6.4% |