Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.258 vs 0.224 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / NYY · 2026
Wells, Austin
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team NYY
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 27
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
45
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.312 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.285 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.299 |
| Observed weight | 51% |
xwOBA
0.268
0.283
0.299
0.314
0.329
wOBA
0.212
0.230
0.249
0.268
0.285
ISO
0.100
0.117
0.135
0.153
0.169
K%
22.8%
24.3%
25.9%
27.6%
29.1%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.3%
40
-25 vs proj
Exit velocity88.3
51
Hard-hit%44.3%
73
xBA0.303
29
xSLG0.518
53
xwOBA0.285
27
-27 vs proj
BB%10.8%
74
+26 vs proj
Bat speed70.5
64
K%27.7%
23
-23 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs0.3 · C
70
Catcher Throwing-2.1 · C
7
Framing Runs4.0 · C
92
Pop Time2.0 · C
29
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.7 · C
13
SB Success Rate100.0% · C
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.8% · rebadged research
62
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.5% · rebadged research
58
Correct Decisions68.0% · rebadged research
69
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.247 · borderline
99
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.257 · insufficient sample
96
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.265 · validated thin sample
88
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.337 · insufficient sample
37
Resists FastballwOBA 0.340 · validated
45
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.335 · validated
93
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103
65
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
105 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.026 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.062 |
| Sample | 231 PA |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 496 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 20 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.311 | 0.272 to 0.367 | +/- 0.047 |
| ISO | 0.165 | 0.117 to 0.248 | +/- 0.066 |
| Barrel% | 5.9% | 4.3% to 9.0% | +/- 2.3% |
| Hard-Hit% | 42.4% | 36.9% to 49.8% | +/- 6.4% |
| K% | 22.9% | 19.2% to 29.1% | +/- 5.0% |
| BB% | 8.5% | 5.9% to 12.1% | +/- 3.1% |
| BABIP | 0.269 | 0.211 to 0.301 | +/- 0.045 |
vs LHP
254 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.224 |
| K% | 20.7% |
| BB% | 6.0% |
| Barrel | 3.9% |
vs RHP
814 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.258 |
| K% | 18.7% |
| BB% | 7.1% |
| Barrel | 6.2% |