Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / HOU · 2026

Alvarez, Yordan

Middle-order power profile with real damage

Primary
0.392 xwOBA
Range
0.333 to 0.438
Live Δ
yes
Team HOU Archetype Impact slugger Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
99
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
96
Defense1 metrics
11
Speed2 metrics
3
Plate skills10 metrics
27
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
xwOBA preseason0.391
xwOBA current pace0.474
xwOBA rolling p500.446
Observed weight66%
xwOBA
0.419 0.432 0.446 0.460 0.473
wOBA
0.432 0.447 0.463 0.479 0.494
ISO
0.238 0.255 0.274 0.293 0.310
K%
15.4% 16.6% 17.9% 19.3% 20.5%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%12.0%
99
Exit velocity94.7
99
Hard-hit%53.1%
96
xBA0.422
99
xSLG0.899
99
xwOBA0.474
100
BB%14.5%
96 +18 vs proj
Bat speed74.9
98
K%17.8%
75
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · LF
11
Arm Runs-0.3 · LF
Small sample
Range Runs-1.6 · LF
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-3.4 · DH
1
Sprint Speed24.8 · DH
4
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-07-16
Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.9% · rebadged research
62
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.0% · rebadged research
62
Correct Decisions65.7% · rebadged research
44
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
68
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.346 · borderline
1
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.326 · insufficient sample
0
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.302 · validated thin sample
10
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.351 · insufficient sample
14
Resists FastballwOBA 0.404 · validated
2
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.389 · validated
7
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Alvarez, Yordan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.308 0.474 2026-07-05: 0.4782026-07-06: 0.4822026-07-07: 0.4772026-07-08: 0.4742026-07-09: 0.4722026-07-10: 0.4682026-07-11: 0.4682026-07-12: 0.4712026-07-13: 0.4742026-07-14: 0.4742026-07-15: 0.4742026-07-16: 0.474 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Yordan Álvarez's tools (86) outpace production (77) by 9 points. Primary finding: excessive fly-ball angle — producing popups instead of line drives.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Launch Angle Too High
-17.0° Current 37° → Target 20°

Flatten swing plane to bring average LA into the 15-22° window

Solid = current angle. Dotted = recommended window.
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

197 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Alvarez, Yordan · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 9% of plotted batted ballsPull 9%Center field third: 63% of plotted batted ballsCenter 63%Right field third: 27% of plotted batted ballsOppo 27% LF 315 CF 409 RF 326 2026-03-15 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 104.1 / LA -20.02026-03-15 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 103.2 / LA 2.02026-03-18 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 90.0 / LA -28.02026-03-19 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 94.4 / LA -15.02026-03-19 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 102.0 / LA 9.02026-03-19 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 83.4 / LA 23.02026-03-20 · force out · SL · popup · EV 86.9 / LA 66.02026-03-22 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 90.8 / LA 4.02026-03-26 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 80.2 / LA -6.02026-03-26 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 92.2 / LA 41.02026-03-27 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 99.3 / LA 36.02026-03-27 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 104.9 / LA 27.02026-03-27 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 113.0 / LA 5.02026-03-27 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 87.9 / LA 46.02026-03-28 · single · CU · ground_ball · EV 103.4 / LA 6.02026-03-28 · double · CU · line_drive · EV 81.1 / LA 19.02026-03-29 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 92.7 / LA 30.02026-03-29 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 102.2 / LA -6.02026-03-30 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 110.8 / LA 8.02026-03-30 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 110.2 / LA 3.02026-03-30 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 81.4 / LA -11.02026-03-30 · home run · FC · fly_ball · EV 108.8 / LA 37.02026-03-31 · home run · CU · fly_ball · EV 110.9 / LA 30.02026-03-31 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 106.7 / LA 25.02026-03-31 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 79.5 / LA 36.02026-04-01 · double · ST · line_drive · EV 102.2 / LA 19.02026-04-01 · single · SI · fly_ball · EV 72.5 / LA 29.02026-04-01 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 103.6 / LA 19.02026-04-03 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 97.5 / LA 32.02026-04-03 · sac fly · ST · fly_ball · EV 106.5 / LA 40.02026-04-04 · single · CU · line_drive · EV 84.6 / LA 16.02026-04-05 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 110.8 / LA 22.02026-04-05 · field out · SL · popup · EV 88.2 / LA 60.02026-04-06 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 103.5 / LA 27.02026-04-06 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 73.8 / LA 12.02026-04-06 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 85.3 / LA 33.02026-04-07 · grounded into double play · ST · ground_ball · EV 87.8 / LA -33.02026-04-07 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 80.9 / LA 43.02026-04-07 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 87.3 / LA 30.02026-04-08 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 85.3 / LA 2.02026-04-08 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 63.7 / LA -16.02026-04-08 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 85.0 / LA -1.02026-04-08 · field out · CH · popup · EV 73.5 / LA 60.02026-04-10 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 70.0 / LA 24.02026-04-10 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 97.6 / LA 31.02026-04-10 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 104.5 / LA 31.02026-04-11 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 100.4 / LA 37.02026-04-11 · single · SI · fly_ball · EV 74.6 / LA 41.02026-04-11 · double · SL · line_drive · EV 111.3 / LA 20.02026-04-11 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 76.8 / LA 53.02026-04-11 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 102.6 / LA 32.02026-04-11 · field out · FF · popup · EV 90.3 / LA 67.02026-04-12 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 78.3 / LA 28.02026-04-12 · double play · CH · line_drive · EV 107.9 / LA 7.02026-04-13 · field out · FC · popup · EV 87.3 / LA 72.02026-04-13 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 94.5 / LA 27.02026-04-13 · field out · ST · popup · EV 87.0 / LA 63.02026-04-14 · double · FC · ground_ball · EV 114.2 / LA 9.02026-04-14 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 80.4 / LA -20.02026-04-14 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 98.8 / LA 36.02026-04-15 · home run · SV · fly_ball · EV 107.2 / LA 22.02026-04-15 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 82.0 / LA 25.02026-04-15 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 103.7 / LA 27.02026-04-16 · single · FF · fly_ball · EV 67.8 / LA 27.02026-04-16 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 91.6 / LA 21.02026-04-16 · field out · FC · line_drive · EV 91.7 / LA 20.02026-04-17 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 99.7 / LA 25.02026-04-17 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 111.0 / LA -3.02026-04-17 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 103.4 / LA 15.02026-04-17 · home run · CU · fly_ball · EV 104.2 / LA 42.02026-04-17 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 106.3 / LA -7.02026-04-18 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 117.8 / LA 13.02026-04-18 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 116.2 / LA 28.02026-04-18 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 93.0 / LA 47.02026-04-19 · field error · SL · ground_ball · EV 78.7 / LA 2.02026-04-19 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 90.0 / LA -2.02026-04-19 · home run · CH · fly_ball · EV 95.8 / LA 28.02026-04-19 · field out · ST · line_drive · EV 82.9 / LA 10.02026-04-19 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 61.4 / LA -52.02026-04-20 · field out · SI · popup · EV 89.8 / LA 60.02026-04-20 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 102.2 / LA 29.02026-04-20 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 97.5 / LA 1.02026-04-20 · field out · FC · line_drive · EV 106.3 / LA 13.02026-04-20 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 103.0 / LA 27.02026-04-21 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 75.0 / LA -37.02026-04-21 · single · SI · fly_ball · EV 88.8 / LA 32.02026-04-21 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 85.4 / LA 52.02026-04-21 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 72.3 / LA 39.02026-04-21 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 100.8 / LA 36.02026-04-22 · home run · CU · fly_ball · EV 108.8 / LA 27.02026-04-22 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 89.0 / LA 12.02026-04-22 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 106.1 / LA 16.02026-04-22 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 90.0 / LA -25.02026-04-24 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 111.2 / LA 10.02026-04-24 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 110.3 / LA 12.02026-04-24 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 110.5 / LA -4.02026-04-25 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 92.9 / LA 3.02026-04-25 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 81.9 / LA -16.02026-04-25 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 78.7 / LA 7.02026-04-25 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 95.6 / LA -3.02026-04-26 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 96.1 / LA -14.02026-04-26 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 99.0 / LA 17.02026-04-26 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 107.8 / LA 10.02026-04-26 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 89.9 / LA 48.02026-04-28 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 76.7 / LA 19.02026-04-28 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 92.0 / LA 43.02026-04-28 · field out · KC · ground_ball · EV 99.4 / LA 1.02026-04-28 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 87.6 / LA 27.02026-04-30 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 87.1 / LA 14.02026-04-30 · single · FS · ground_ball · EV 56.9 / LA -51.02026-04-30 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 107.4 / LA 27.02026-04-30 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 96.1 / LA -7.02026-04-30 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 97.4 / LA 45.02026-05-01 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 104.2 / LA -12.02026-05-01 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 70.5 / LA 11.02026-05-01 · force out · FC · ground_ball · EV 112.4 / LA 1.02026-05-01 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 79.0 / LA -7.02026-05-02 · field out · SI · popup · EV 75.8 / LA 59.02026-05-02 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 93.0 / LA 59.02026-05-02 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 111.4 / LA -7.02026-05-03 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 98.3 / LA 19.02026-05-03 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 107.1 / LA 25.02026-05-03 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 106.5 / LA 9.02026-05-04 · single · FS · ground_ball · EV 103.4 / LA -4.02026-05-04 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 112.9 / LA 11.02026-05-05 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 101.6 / LA -20.02026-05-05 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 86.9 / LA 54.02026-05-05 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 113.4 / LA 16.02026-05-06 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 102.7 / LA 6.02026-05-08 · home run · FF · line_drive · EV 115.9 / LA 19.02026-05-08 · field out · CU · ground_ball2026-05-08 · single · CU · line_drive · EV 74.3 / LA 22.02026-05-08 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 98.1 / LA 8.02026-05-09 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 109.7 / LA 12.02026-05-11 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 107.9 / LA 7.02026-05-11 · grounded into double play · FF · ground_ball · EV 93.5 / LA 1.02026-05-12 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 78.6 / LA 38.02026-05-13 · single · FS · ground_ball · EV 55.2 / LA -67.02026-05-13 · field out · FS · line_drive · EV 80.7 / LA 16.02026-05-13 · force out · CH · ground_ball · EV 89.1 / LA -12.02026-05-14 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 110.7 / LA 29.02026-05-14 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 95.5 / LA 13.02026-05-14 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 109.7 / LA 9.02026-05-15 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 98.0 / LA 33.02026-05-15 · field out · FC · line_drive · EV 89.4 / LA 21.02026-05-15 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 110.0 / LA 11.02026-05-16 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 97.8 / LA 30.02026-05-16 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 95.0 / LA 27.02026-05-16 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 99.3 / LA 36.02026-05-17 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 99.9 / LA 41.02026-05-18 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 83.0 / LA 12.02026-05-18 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 87.0 / LA 29.02026-05-19 · field out · CU · line_drive · EV 112.3 / LA 8.02026-05-19 · field out · CH · popup · EV 83.5 / LA 63.02026-05-20 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 99.8 / LA 33.02026-05-20 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 72.6 / LA -15.02026-05-20 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 95.5 / LA 30.02026-05-20 · field out · CH · popup · EV 82.0 / LA 69.02026-05-22 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 87.0 / LA 40.02026-05-22 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 72.6 / LA 23.02026-05-23 · field out · ST · popup · EV 81.3 / LA 77.02026-05-25 · force out · FC · ground_ball · EV 99.5 / LA -8.02026-05-25 · home run · SI · line_drive · EV 110.6 / LA 20.02026-05-25 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 88.5 / LA 72.02026-05-25 · sac fly · SL · fly_ball · EV 91.6 / LA 41.02026-05-26 · home run · CH · fly_ball · EV 112.2 / LA 29.02026-05-26 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 104.2 / LA 4.02026-05-27 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 109.3 / LA 24.02026-05-27 · single · CU · line_drive · EV 104.4 / LA 18.02026-05-27 · home run · ST · fly_ball · EV 110.0 / LA 27.02026-06-04 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 115.1 / LA 8.02026-06-04 · double · CU · line_drive · EV 97.0 / LA 18.02026-06-04 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 92.7 / LA 47.02026-06-05 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 86.8 / LA 48.02026-06-05 · field out · FF · popup · EV 87.2 / LA 68.02026-06-05 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 101.5 / LA 12.02026-06-07 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 90.5 / LA 3.02026-06-07 · field out · CU · line_drive · EV 99.2 / LA 23.02026-06-07 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 106.2 / LA 7.02026-06-15 · single · CU · ground_ball · EV 102.6 / LA 6.02026-06-15 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 96.7 / LA 46.02026-06-15 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 109.9 / LA 17.02026-06-15 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 105.1 / LA 16.02026-06-20 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 101.7 / LA 36.02026-06-20 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 85.7 / LA 33.02026-06-20 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 104.9 / LA -14.02026-06-22 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 88.6 / LA -12.02026-06-24 · force out · FC · ground_ball · EV 96.6 / LA 2.02026-06-24 · field out · FF · popup · EV 75.3 / LA 63.02026-06-26 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 98.1 / LA 35.02026-06-30 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 102.5 / LA -1.02026-06-30 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 105.7 / LA 37.02026-06-30 · single · FS · line_drive · EV 115.1 / LA 12.02026-07-01 · single · FS · fly_ball · EV 82.1 / LA 49.02026-07-01 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 107.1 / LA 49.02026-07-01 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 100.5 / LA 4.02026-07-01 · single · FS · ground_ball · EV 105.9 / LA -8.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics BAT SPEED DISTRIBUTION Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Bat Speed Alvarez, Yordan · aggregate bat speed marker 60 mph 85 mph Avg bat speed 75.0 mph Hard swing rate 50% Whiff / swing 19% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Alvarez, Yordan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 44%44%Chase: 26%26%Whiff: 17%17%Zone contact: 91%91%Contact: 83%83%Hard hit: 53%53% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ+0.082
wOBA Δ+0.071
Sample433 PA

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances371----
Home Runs18----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3920.333 to 0.438+/- 0.052
ISO0.2190.145 to 0.328+/- 0.091
Barrel%9.3%6.8% to 12.3%+/- 2.7%
Hard-Hit%50.2%41.4% to 56.2%+/- 7.4%
K%18.0%13.7% to 25.6%+/- 5.9%
BB%11.2%9.0% to 14.4%+/- 2.7%
BABIP0.3110.261 to 0.355+/- 0.047
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

1118 career PA

xwOBA0.325
K%15.5%
BB%7.6%
Barrel8.3%
vs RHP

2102 career PA

xwOBA0.344
K%13.0%
BB%11.2%
Barrel8.7%