Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 27 |
| Height | 5' 10" |
| Weight | 198 lb |
| Debut | 2023-07-07 |
Player profile / St. Louis Cardinals
José Fermín
LF · Bats/Throws R/R · 5' 10", 198 lb · Age 27
Club St. Louis Cardinals
Position LF
Roster Current MLB team
Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 79 | 7 | 11 | 0 | 2 | .155 | .241 | .197 | .438 |
| 2025 | 70 | 5 | 17 | 1 | 2 | .283 | .377 | .417 | .794 |
| 2026 | 370 | 33 | 81 | 6 | 8 | .248 | .309 | .355 | .664 |
| 4 Seasons | 580 | 47 | 121 | 7 | 12 | .238 | .311 | .330 | .641 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
21
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.332 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.293 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.307 |
| Observed weight | 64% |
xwOBA
0.282
0.294
0.307
0.320
0.332
wOBA
0.288
0.303
0.319
0.335
0.349
ISO
0.090
0.104
0.120
0.135
0.149
K%
10.6%
11.9%
13.3%
14.8%
16.1%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%1.6%
7
Exit velocity85.8
28
Hard-hit%30.9%
19
xBA0.295
23
xSLG0.399
12
xwOBA0.293
38
-19 vs proj
BB%7.8%
41
-16 vs proj
Bat speed65.4
9
K%12.7%
96
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-2.4 · 3B
1
Arm Strength88.8 · 3B
63
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 3B
47
Range Runs-0.8 · 3B
44
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.9 · 3B
61
SB Success Rate100.0% · 3B
94
Sprint Speed27.1 · 3B
41
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 74.8% · rebadged research
93
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 29.3% · rebadged research
16
Correct Decisions67.8% · rebadged research
68
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
76
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.260 · borderline
93
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.284 · insufficient sample
37
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.277 · validated thin sample
59
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.320 · insufficient sample
66
Resists FastballwOBA 0.344 · validated
38
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.358 · validated
45
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
182 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | -0.016 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.010 |
negative regression
Regression watch
Running hot. Expect some cooling.
Fermín’s wOBA sits at 0.319, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.293 — a gap of 0.026, -0.9 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 385 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.
Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape
Closest profiles
| Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hicks, Liam MIA · L | 0.68 | Whiff ratexwOBA on contact | Player · Projection |
| Schanuel, Nolan LAA · L | 0.68 | Pull rateBarrel rate | Player · Projection |
| Lee, Jung Hoo SF · L | 0.67 | Fly-ball rateWhiff rate | Player · Projection |
| Loftin, Nick KC · R | 0.67 | Ground-ball ratexwOBA on contact | Player · Projection |
Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 2 | 2026-08-08 | Disciplined swing decisions drove the score |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| 2026-05-20 vs PIT0 HR | 0 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E | 0-1 |
| 2026-04-20 @ MIA0 HR | 0 RBI / 1 Ch | 0 E | 0-2 | K |
| 2026-04-14 vs CLE0 HR | 0 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E | 0-0 | BB, R |
| 2026-04-13 vs CLE0 HR | 0 RBI / 1 Ch | 0 E | 0-1 | BB |
| 2026-04-12 vs BOS0 HR | 0 RBI / 3 Ch | 0 E | 1-4 | K |