Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / STL · 2026
Fermín, José
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team STL
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 27
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.332 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.253 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.308 |
| Observed weight | 30% |
xwOBA
0.273
0.290
0.308
0.327
0.343
wOBA
0.268
0.297
0.330
0.362
0.392
ISO
0.085
0.110
0.138
0.166
0.191
K%
9.6%
11.8%
14.3%
16.8%
19.0%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%7.4%
34
-19 vs proj
Barrel%1.1%
6
Bat speed65.4
9
Exit velocity85.5
18
Hard-hit%31.1%
17
K%13.7%
90
xBA0.247
5
xSLG0.344
5
xwOBA0.253
8
-42 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg0.0 · LF
45
Arm Runs-1.6 · LF
Limited
Range Runs0.2 · LF
Limited
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.0 · LF
42
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 75.7% · rebadged research
92
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 30.8% · rebadged research
10
Correct Decisions66.8% · rebadged research
55
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.274 · borderline
77
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.271 · insufficient sample
73
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.265 · validated thin sample
81
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.336 · insufficient sample
36
Resists FastballwOBA 0.341 · validated
46
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.368 · validated
24
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
71
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
70 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.056 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.021 |
| Sample | 95 PA |
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 255 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 6 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.309 | 0.255 to 0.342 | +/- 0.043 |
| ISO | 0.136 | 0.060 to 0.207 | +/- 0.074 |
| Barrel% | 2.3% | 0.2% to 4.8% | +/- 2.3% |
| Hard-Hit% | 30.4% | 22.9% to 43.2% | +/- 10.2% |
| K% | 14.3% | 10.0% to 23.0% | +/- 6.5% |
| BB% | 9.1% | 5.3% to 11.3% | +/- 3.0% |
| BABIP | 0.276 | 0.228 to 0.328 | +/- 0.050 |
vs LHP
84 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.138 |
| K% | 5.3% |
| BB% | 4.7% |
| Barrel | 0.5% |
vs RHP
173 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.139 |
| K% | 5.8% |
| BB% | 4.5% |
| Barrel | 0.4% |