Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
2
templated note
Age-31 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / DET · 2026
McKinstry, Zach
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team DET
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 31
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
14
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.307 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.286 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.293 |
| Observed weight | 67% |
xwOBA
0.272
0.282
0.293
0.304
0.314
wOBA
0.277
0.290
0.305
0.320
0.333
ISO
0.093
0.104
0.117
0.129
0.140
K%
16.2%
17.1%
18.1%
19.1%
20.1%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%1.4%
6
-30 vs proj
Exit velocity84.8
18
Hard-hit%22.3%
5
-21 vs proj
xBA0.285
16
xSLG0.383
8
xwOBA0.286
31
-26 vs proj
BB%9.6%
65
+17 vs proj
Bat speed65.9
11
K%16.2%
86
+24 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs4.4 · RF
98
Arm Strength96.6 · RF
70
Outs Above Avg4.0 · RF
93
Range Runs6.2 · RF
91
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.6 · RF
32
SB Success Rate50.0% · RF
4
Sprint Speed27.9 · RF
61
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.4% · rebadged research
61
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.3% · rebadged research
38
Correct Decisions68.3% · rebadged research
73
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline102
54
Fastball Stuff+32
0
Mithrandir Stuff+20
0
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.286 · borderline
58
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.288 · insufficient sample
28
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.256 · validated thin sample
93
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.298 · insufficient sample
93
Resists FastballwOBA 0.326 · validated
74
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.339 · validated
83
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
199 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.023 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.005 |
| Sample | 439 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 519 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 11 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.309 | 0.282 to 0.346 | +/- 0.032 |
| ISO | 0.145 | 0.113 to 0.235 | +/- 0.061 |
| Barrel% | 4.0% | 2.6% to 6.5% | +/- 2.0% |
| Hard-Hit% | 32.9% | 29.6% to 38.5% | +/- 4.4% |
| K% | 21.0% | 19.3% to 26.8% | +/- 3.7% |
| BB% | 8.2% | 6.5% to 11.2% | +/- 2.3% |
| BABIP | 0.287 | 0.250 to 0.329 | +/- 0.040 |
vs LHP
289 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.237 |
| K% | 18.0% |
| BB% | 6.3% |
| Barrel | 2.7% |
vs RHP
1583 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.255 |
| K% | 18.2% |
| BB% | 7.3% |
| Barrel | 3.8% |