Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
2
templated note
Age-31 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / DET · 2026
McKinstry, Zach
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team DET
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 31
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
10
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.307 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.274 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.289 |
| Observed weight | 55% |
xwOBA
0.265
0.276
0.289
0.302
0.313
wOBA
0.283
0.301
0.320
0.339
0.356
ISO
0.097
0.111
0.127
0.143
0.158
K%
16.8%
17.9%
19.2%
20.4%
21.5%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%1.9%
12
-22 vs proj
Exit velocity83.4
8
Hard-hit%20.1%
3
-22 vs proj
xBA0.276
12
xSLG0.378
7
xwOBA0.274
19
-33 vs proj
BB%9.4%
60
Bat speed66.8
18
K%16.9%
81
+21 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.8 · 2B
3
Arm Strength96.6 · 2B
97
Outs Above Avg3.0 · 2B
85
Range Runs4.6 · 2B
87
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.7 · 2B
24
Sprint Speed27.9 · 2B
65
SB Success Rate33.3% · 2B
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.3% · rebadged research
59
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.2% · rebadged research
23
Correct Decisions68.2% · rebadged research
71
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.293 · borderline
36
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.265 · insufficient sample
88
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.276 · validated thin sample
62
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.317 · insufficient sample
86
Resists FastballwOBA 0.304 · validated
95
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.352 · validated
69
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline100
44
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
127 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.035 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.011 |
| Sample | 267 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 519 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 11 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.309 | 0.282 to 0.346 | +/- 0.032 |
| ISO | 0.145 | 0.113 to 0.235 | +/- 0.061 |
| Barrel% | 4.0% | 2.6% to 6.5% | +/- 2.0% |
| Hard-Hit% | 32.9% | 29.6% to 38.5% | +/- 4.4% |
| K% | 21.0% | 19.3% to 26.8% | +/- 3.7% |
| BB% | 8.2% | 6.5% to 11.2% | +/- 2.3% |
| BABIP | 0.287 | 0.250 to 0.329 | +/- 0.040 |
vs LHP
289 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.237 |
| K% | 18.0% |
| BB% | 6.3% |
| Barrel | 2.7% |
vs RHP
1583 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.255 |
| K% | 18.2% |
| BB% | 7.3% |
| Barrel | 3.8% |