Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / MIN · 2026
Keaschall, Luke
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team MIN
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 24
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
21
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.338 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.299 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.314 |
| Observed weight | 63% |
xwOBA
0.293
0.303
0.314
0.324
0.334
wOBA
0.327
0.342
0.358
0.375
0.390
ISO
0.122
0.133
0.145
0.157
0.168
K%
13.1%
14.2%
15.4%
16.7%
17.8%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%2.7%
17
-22 vs proj
Exit velocity84.9
16
Hard-hit%31.4%
19
xBA0.284
16
xSLG0.411
15
xwOBA0.299
43
BB%9.1%
55
+21 vs proj
Bat speed66.9
19
K%14.4%
88
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.3 · 2B
9
Arm Strength92.3 · 2B
85
Outs Above Avg-7.0 · 2B
3
Range Runs-4.9 · 2B
10
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs3.6 · 2B
96
Bolts1.0 · 2B
15
SB Success Rate84.6% · 2B
64
Sprint Speed28.8 · 2B
88
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 72.4% · rebadged research
85
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.6% · rebadged research
44
Correct Decisions68.8% · rebadged research
76
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
78
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.297 · borderline
30
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.267 · insufficient sample
84
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.265 · validated thin sample
87
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.317 · insufficient sample
86
Resists FastballwOBA 0.352 · validated
25
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.333 · validated
94
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
204 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.007 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.052 |
| Sample | 375 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 304 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 8 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.306 | 0.301 to 0.344 | +/- 0.021 |
| ISO | 0.167 | 0.140 to 0.244 | +/- 0.052 |
| Barrel% | 4.3% | 2.4% to 7.0% | +/- 2.3% |
| Hard-Hit% | 33.3% | 27.7% to 41.0% | +/- 6.7% |
| K% | 14.7% | 12.1% to 21.9% | +/- 4.9% |
| BB% | 7.3% | 5.0% to 11.6% | +/- 3.3% |
| BABIP | 0.303 | 0.281 to 0.348 | +/- 0.033 |
vs LHP
66 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.150 |
| K% | 6.9% |
| BB% | 4.3% |
| Barrel | 2.3% |
vs RHP
141 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.158 |
| K% | 6.1% |
| BB% | 4.8% |
| Barrel | 2.3% |