Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / MIN · 2026
Martin, Austin
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team MIN
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 27
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
24
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.315 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.310 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.312 |
| Observed weight | 53% |
xwOBA
0.285
0.298
0.312
0.327
0.340
wOBA
0.313
0.331
0.352
0.372
0.391
ISO
0.082
0.097
0.114
0.131
0.146
K%
14.0%
15.4%
17.0%
18.6%
20.0%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%1.6%
9
Exit velocity86.4
27
Hard-hit%27.7%
10
-20 vs proj
xBA0.304
30
xSLG0.412
18
xwOBA0.310
52
BB%12.9%
86
+42 vs proj
Bat speed65.7
9
K%17.7%
76
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs1.7 · RF
94
Arm Strength91.6 · RF
40
Outs Above Avg1.0 · RF
80
Range Runs0.6 · RF
63
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.1 · RF
43
SB Success Rate77.8% · RF
38
Sprint Speed27.7 · RF
61
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 80.1% · rebadged research
99
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.0% · rebadged research
62
Correct Decisions74.3% · rebadged research
96
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.314 · borderline
11
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.290 · insufficient sample
18
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.268 · validated thin sample
77
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.341 · insufficient sample
28
Resists FastballwOBA 0.336 · validated
56
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.350 · validated
72
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline114
97
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
146 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.009 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.033 |
| Sample | 248 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 323 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 5 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.318 | 0.283 to 0.363 | +/- 0.040 |
| ISO | 0.129 | 0.089 to 0.214 | +/- 0.062 |
| Barrel% | 2.9% | 1.2% to 6.0% | +/- 2.4% |
| Hard-Hit% | 35.3% | 31.1% to 43.5% | +/- 6.2% |
| K% | 15.9% | 13.4% to 23.9% | +/- 5.2% |
| BB% | 8.4% | 6.0% to 11.8% | +/- 2.9% |
| BABIP | 0.304 | 0.265 to 0.344 | +/- 0.040 |
vs LHP
146 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.218 |
| K% | 10.7% |
| BB% | 6.5% |
| Barrel | 1.9% |
vs RHP
323 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.204 |
| K% | 10.9% |
| BB% | 6.1% |
| Barrel | 1.4% |